Seuntjies DiceBot -Multi-Site, multi-strategy betting bot for dice. With Charts! - page 24.

HCP

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 4361

The best explanation including a mathematical formula I have found is this one:

Quote from: https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/betting-terminology/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/

Winning and Losing Streaks Formula
The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets)
ln = natural logarithm¹
P = probability²
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

¹ - Suffice to say, explaining what natural logarithm is would be worthy of a series of articles. For the time being, use Excel to calculate this for you.

² - For winning streak calculations use the positive value (i.e. the probability of winning). For losing streak calculations use the negative probability value. For example, if the probability to win the bet is 33% then the probability that the bet loses (negative probability) is 67%.

If you want a formula for Excel or Google Sheets it would be:

Code:

=abs(ln(n)/ln(1-p))

"n" = number of rolls
"p" = needs to be expressed as percentage value between 0-1, so (percentage / 100). ie. 60% = 0.60, 5% = 0.05

You can see it in action here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T7k5KVUwB606rfyrCrfZNTs8xyVyF7C-0PLlIPzaU8o

klaaas

hero member

Activity: 1568

Merit: 544

Quote from: HCP on July 25, 2019, 06:19:45 PM

In any case, the answer is likely to be a lot higher than you think it should be. At 50% chance, I think I've seen something like ~20-23 losses in a row. At a 10% chance, I think I got it to around ~130 losses in a row... might have been 140.

20-30 is the same range here at 50% where a losing streak finds a winning bet. I go for a reset or lower the payout over that number most of the times. The same for a winning streak where i maxed out on 24 and reset before that number.

1982dre

hero member

Activity: 1372

Merit: 512

Quote from: anunnaki1202 on July 25, 2019, 06:42:32 AM

How many steps into martingale progression someone saw ?

i always take the formula multiplier x 10 to get my max bad streak i can handle setuping up the bot. So on 2x its 20x and on 10x its 100x. But of course longer red streaks are still possible and they will come.

HCP

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 4361

Quote from: anunnaki1202 on July 25, 2019, 06:42:32 AM

How many steps into martingale progression someone saw ?

This mostly depends on the "chance" value being used... and to a lesser extent the dice site. It isn't dependent on the bot at all.

In any case, the answer is likely to be a lot higher than you think it should be. At 50% chance, I think I've seen something like ~20-23 losses in a row. At a 10% chance, I think I got it to around ~130 losses in a row... might have been 140.

Try googling "Max losing streak dice" Wink

anunnaki1202

jr. member

Activity: 78

Merit: 1

Quote from: seuntjie on July 25, 2019, 06:26:49 AM

Quote from: anunnaki1202 on July 25, 2019, 06:25:59 AM

Is anyway to reset all settings?

https://bot.seuntjie.com/faqs.aspx#faq18

Thank you!!!

anunnaki1202

jr. member

Activity: 78

Merit: 1

How many steps into martingale progression someone saw ?

seuntjie

legendary

Activity: 1717

Merit: 1125

Quote from: anunnaki1202 on July 25, 2019, 06:25:59 AM

Is anyway to reset all settings?

https://bot.seuntjie.com/faqs.aspx#faq18

anunnaki1202

jr. member

Activity: 78

Merit: 1

Is anyway to reset all settings?

seuntjie

legendary

Activity: 1717

Merit: 1125

Quote from: bocanegra on July 22, 2019, 07:24:24 AM

take me error in windows xp . could not fix it?

https://bot.seuntjie.com/faqs.aspx#faq22

bocanegra

newbie

Activity: 163

Merit: 0

take me error in windows xp . could not fix it?

Agent009

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: HCP on July 18, 2019, 04:29:51 PM

Quote from: Agent009 on July 17, 2019, 07:51:08 AM

Yes, alright it is payout.
Yea, that's right.

Ok... that was slightly complicated due to the fact that you can't simply specify the "payout" value. Instead, the bot requires that you know the "House Edge" for the site to be able to calculate the correct "chance" value for your desired "payout". Wink

I have put the script into the Programmer Mode Discussion thread to keep this thread tidy.

Got it!
Thank you very much!

HCP

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 4361

Quote from: Agent009 on July 17, 2019, 07:51:08 AM

Yes, alright it is payout.
Yea, that's right.

Ok... that was slightly complicated due to the fact that you can't simply specify the "payout" value. Instead, the bot requires that you know the "House Edge" for the site to be able to calculate the correct "chance" value for your desired "payout". Wink

I have put the script into the Programmer Mode Discussion thread to keep this thread tidy.

Agent009

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: HCP on July 16, 2019, 06:30:10 PM

Sorry, I'm a little confused by your use of the term "multiplier"... do you mean payout? Huh

So, 10x payout which would equal around ~9.9% chance (on a typical house edge of 1%)... and then slowly increase that payout (11x, 12x, 13x etc), which effectively reduces the chance, while increasing the bet?

Yes, alright it is payout.
Yea, that's right.

HCP

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 4361

Sorry, I'm a little confused by your use of the term "multiplier"... do you mean payout? Huh

So, 10x payout which would equal around ~9.9% chance (on a typical house edge of 1%)... and then slowly increase that payout (11x, 12x, 13x etc), which effectively reduces the chance, while increasing the bet?

Agent009

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: kwong1983 on July 15, 2019, 09:24:18 PM

Quote from: Agent009 on July 14, 2019, 07:20:06 PM

Hello guys!
Can anyone help me with a little script?

Idea is:
base bet = 0.00000010
base multiplier = 10x
on loss = 0.00000010 (as and basebet, always +1 unit)
on loss = +1x multiplier
on win = reset to base params

i.e. when I loss so my next bets must be like as:
after 1 loss: bet 0.00000020 + 1x multiplier (11x)
after 2 loss: bet 0.00000030 + 1x multiplier (12x)
after 3 loss: bet 0.00000040 + 1x multiplier (13x)
after 4 loss: bet 0.00000050 + 1x multiplier (14x)
after 5 loss: bet 0.00000060 + 1x multiplier (15x)

and so on until we win...

I saw such a script on the Bustabit site (payout martingale)

You can do it in Setting Mode - Advanced. Using MMMMKKKK or d'Alembert, reset on win in stop condition.

Yea, it's true, but this only for bet amount. And how to make on each lose +1x multiplier?

kwong1983

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

Quote from: Agent009 on July 14, 2019, 07:20:06 PM

Hello guys!
Can anyone help me with a little script?

Idea is:
base bet = 0.00000010
base multiplier = 10x
on loss = 0.00000010 (as and basebet, always +1 unit)
on loss = +1x multiplier
on win = reset to base params

i.e. when I loss so my next bets must be like as:
after 1 loss: bet 0.00000020 + 1x multiplier (11x)
after 2 loss: bet 0.00000030 + 1x multiplier (12x)
after 3 loss: bet 0.00000040 + 1x multiplier (13x)
after 4 loss: bet 0.00000050 + 1x multiplier (14x)
after 5 loss: bet 0.00000060 + 1x multiplier (15x)

and so on until we win...

I saw such a script on the Bustabit site (payout martingale)

You can do it in Setting Mode - Advanced. Using MMMMKKKK or d'Alembert, reset on win in stop condition.

Agent009

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Hello guys!
Can anyone help me with a little script?

Idea is:
base bet = 0.00000010
base multiplier = 10x
on loss = 0.00000010 (as and basebet, always +1 unit)
on loss = +1x multiplier
on win = reset to base params

i.e. when I loss so my next bets must be like as:
after 1 loss: bet 0.00000020 + 1x multiplier (11x)
after 2 loss: bet 0.00000030 + 1x multiplier (12x)
after 3 loss: bet 0.00000040 + 1x multiplier (13x)
after 4 loss: bet 0.00000050 + 1x multiplier (14x)
after 5 loss: bet 0.00000060 + 1x multiplier (15x)

and so on until we win...

I saw such a script on the Bustabit site (payout martingale)

seuntjie

legendary

Activity: 1717

Merit: 1125

DiceBot 3.4.2 available for download - https://bot.seuntjie.com/botpage.aspx

Change Log

New Features
Added WinDice

Changes
Added mirrors for duckdice - bot will automatically switch to mirrors if main url is not working.
Updated PD and Stake to show numeric bet ids, but it slows down the bot significantly. To speed up bets and get guid bet ids, create a file named "fast" or "fast.txt" in the root folder of the bot.

Bug Fixes
Open/Save/Help buttons in programmer mode fixed
Starting in programmer mode when use labouchere is checked starts with laboiuchere starting bet fixed
popup stats fixed
Stake xrp fix

seuntjie

legendary

Activity: 1717

Merit: 1125

Quote from: poer on June 28, 2019, 07:12:35 PM

Quote from: seuntjie on June 28, 2019, 08:59:56 AM

Quote from: poer on June 28, 2019, 08:58:31 AM

please creat config lua

I don't know what this is supposed to be or what it does.

cannot start

Please use code tags

HCP

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 4361

You can't have multiple "dobet" functions. You have to have exactly ONE dobet() function. Also, there is no "betlow" variable. It seems that you don't quite understand the flow of how the bot works through a script.

You don't make a call to dobet() to make the bot make a bet... the bot will automatically make the first bet with the site (based on the values that are set for nextbet and chance etc). Then the bot will call dobet() with the results, process your code in dobet() and then at the end attempt to place the next bet with the website before looping back through to dobet() again.

There is a very good description of it (with a flow chart) available in the programmer mode tutorial. So, you might want to read: https://steemit.com/dicebot/@seuntjie/dicebot-programmer-mode-tutorial-02-process

So, what are you actually attempting to do? What is the logic for your script? Huh

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