looks like double top is out of discussion^^
?? The double top possibility he posted would be when the price hits $13... we arent there yet.No I was indeed referring to a monthly time frame. If a shoulder head shoulder-formation forms, the plunge would become even the more obvious.
Now here is another interesting chart that speaks an even bolder language:
Does this drop of Accumulation/Distribution coupled with a lack of downswing mean anything to anyone?
I just madde two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/35mlk6o.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl
[IMG]http://i46.tinypic.com/o0dt2b.png
https://ferroh.com/chart
The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12$ (weaker support) to 11$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.
The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11$ in our case).
Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77$ to 13$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/35mlk6o.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl
[IMG]http://i46.tinypic.com/o0dt2b.png
https://ferroh.com/chart
The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12$ (weaker support) to 11$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.
The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11$ in our case).
Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77$ to 13$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)
Spekulatius! Do have some tips for good books on basic financial probabilistics? (German is also fine :-) What algorithms/ formulas worked best for you?
I never read a book about it. Its all on the net. Here are some good addresses to dig into if you are interested or dont know where to start. A good place to start with is investopia. Google searches generate helpful results as well (also in German!).
These are the basic things you should master if you want to do chart analysis (in this order):
- Reading different chart types (Closing Price, OHLC, Candle,..)
- Trends (what is a trend?, How to spot trends?, When do trends reverse?,..)
- Chart patterns (double top, triple bottom, diamonds,..)
- Fibonacci Reversals
- Indicators (Volume, Clouds, PSAR, RSI, Moving Averages, OBV,..)
investopedia.com (THE place to learn chart analysis)
There is so much helpful info around here to be found, one can easily loose orientation. some suggestions to start with:
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/beginner/level3/economic-data.aspx#axzz24gXlMoH1
http://www.investopedia.com/video/forex/#axzz24gXlMoH1
http://www.investopedia.com/active-trading/charts-and-patterns/#axzz24gXlMoH1
...
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm#triangle (super Elliot Wave Theory explaination; Elliot Waves, btw is advanced stuff and only apply to Bitcoin within limits IMO.)
http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html
First thing you do when looking at charts is determining the overall market sentiment (bull market or bear market?? Where are we in the Trader cycle of emotions? That helps to put everything else into context. Most impact on price have BIG news (like the recent wordpress one), they can overrule anything you think you see in a chart. Followed by that are chart patterns, for they have the best prediction power IMO. Thirdly I look at the volume, then other indicators like RSI, Bollinger Band, PSAR, the EMAs and OBV (mostly in that order).
The indicators I use: Bollinger Band, RSI, PSAR, Volume, EMA 10, EMA 21, OBV
You should in regular intervals re-evaluate the fundamentals of the market (market cap, tx count, product announcements and those still in the pipeline, legal framework and development,..). If they change, price changes. If you spot changes first, you are ahead of the market.
Now, I think you got some literature to chew on till next christmas, the good news however: The is still more!
If u got questions, PM me. And good luck!
betraying my ignorance 
