Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally - page 2.

Wexlike

legendary

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Quote from: windjc on January 27, 2020, 03:32:53 AM

Quote from: exstasie on January 26, 2020, 05:35:40 PM

Quote from: Wexlike on January 26, 2020, 11:18:35 AM

*skip*
Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first. Tongue

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Bears have A LOT more to prove than bulls at this point. We made at HL at 6500, broke through a major trendline, are 3 months from halving (before which we always get a "buy the rumor" pump) and are in a 10 year BULL TREND.

Bears literally have to do things that have never occurred in the history of BTC to confirm a down trend continuation.

Yeah, sorry exstasie but I'm totally on windjc side here. I bought everything I could in the $8.5->$6.7 drop in November in anticipation of the forming bull and the large support around the $6k levels. The thing is, many bears(and normal investors!) were selling way too early on the flashy run up from $3.5/4k to $13.8k below or around the $6k area, just because many many people were thinking that the resistance will be super strong based on the multiple times we bounced of it in the 2018 bear. And how wrong they were (not excluding me, I'm still biting my ass for selling too much below $6k). Even Masterluc was so very wrong (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/).

That is why I didn't expect the market to give them a chance to redo their mistake. Of course we're still in unclear waters yet and the monthly candle needs a few more day. But I think the current price direction favors a bullish outlook. Wink

error08

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What happened in Oct 25-26 was a sudden pump within 24 hours, not a bullish run. But take a look at the bigger picture, bitcoin still on the bullish run compared to the early phase of last year at $3900 and this year bitcoin price starts at $7200. It's not a short term but always perceives in the long term, as now the price gradually increases over $8K and the trend in the market still trying to break the $10K level.

STT

legendary

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Long term we are searching for the bottom pricing which many presume will be a fair bit higher then 2019 lows. That gives us alot of space to reach downwards even while in a bull trend.
I think we form lows in a day but then it must confirm on a week even monthly bar close maybe twice before the market gives away and finds higher to be the path of least resistance.

See this is the weekly bar view, from my pov its quite reasonable to go back and touch 8000 and be totally bullish

windjc

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Quote from: exstasie on January 26, 2020, 05:35:40 PM

Quote from: Wexlike on January 26, 2020, 11:18:35 AM

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors. Tongue

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first. Tongue

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Bears have A LOT more to prove than bulls at this point. We made at HL at 6500, broke through a major trendline, are 3 months from halving (before which we always get a "buy the rumor" pump) and are in a 10 year BULL TREND.

Bears literally have to do things that have never occurred in the history of BTC to confirm a down trend continuation.

exstasie

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Quote from: Wexlike on January 26, 2020, 11:18:35 AM

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors. Tongue

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first. Tongue

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Wexlike

legendary

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Quote from: hirngespenst on January 26, 2020, 09:50:18 AM

Yes, there is no sign for the bull run in this year yet, maybe halving can change the scenario but still, no one is sure about it. I thought this time Bitcoin price will hoit 10K USD but the race stopped at 9100 USD and then it dumped by 1000 USD already. I don't think this is because of the Chinese Lunar year as the Coronavirus attacked there so there is no party in China at this moment, so, the dump was normal too. I hope everything will turn into positive again.

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors. Tongue

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend .

hirngespenst

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Yes, there is no sign for the bull run in this year yet, maybe halving can change the scenario but still, no one is sure about it. I thought this time Bitcoin price will hoit 10K USD but the race stopped at 9100 USD and then it dumped by 1000 USD already. I don't think this is because of the Chinese Lunar year as the Coronavirus attacked there so there is no party in China at this moment, so, the dump was normal too. I hope everything will turn into positive again.

mahilchii

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Quote from: bassbity on January 20, 2020, 08:24:28 AM

Bitcoin prices have dropped to $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

Seems like bull run might not happen, but we can expect a massive change after 2 or 3 months from now. Halving is a big hope for rise in crypto currency let's see how things go, I agree the rally has broken but there will be a change in few more days the price will increase for sure in few more days.

worle1bm

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Quote from: Latviand on January 26, 2020, 06:06:47 AM

Quote from: worle1bm on January 20, 2020, 08:43:20 AM

Sad but true image. Cry

Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

Some are saying that the increase in the market value of Bitcoin is caused by the tension between US and Iran and the moment it cooled down, the market value of Bitcoin stopped increasing. I would say that it is just coincidence and the market itself is just volatile. The markrt price is now falling, and the bottomline is what would investors do? Will they sell at this point to cut further losses? Or They would stick with the plan of holding? I would say trust onto the process and be patient. Backdrops after an uprise is not new in this industry.

Yes, you are right. The relation between Bitcoin price increase and tension between US and Iran is just coincidental. There is no reason why the issue between these two countries will effect price in any way.

As I was saying, as far as price remain above $8K then we don't have to worry because by reading chart we can see that the psychological barrier for traders is $7850. If price goes below that, traders will start panicking and dump their coins which will cause further fall in value. But market resisted around $8300 which is now having positive impact on price and price is once again up by 1.5% today.

Leon83

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Quote from: Fatunad on January 26, 2020, 06:41:12 AM

Quote from: Leon83 on January 26, 2020, 06:34:38 AM

Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

It's possible in mid february but every speculations and expectations in the market today is very bullish the chances for that to happen is very slim. If you're looking for a good price to buy im afraid the price today is the best suitable for accumulating more. I will not look for that $7,800 in february because it might be too late and fomo.

Good point. $8200 a couple of days ago may well be the higher low.

Fatunad

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Quote from: Leon83 on January 26, 2020, 06:34:38 AM

Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

It's possible in mid february but every speculations and expectations in the market today is very bullish the chances for that to happen is very slim. If you're looking for a good price to buy im afraid the price today is the best suitable for accumulating more. I will not look for that $7,800 in february because it might be too late and fomo.

Leon83

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Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

Latviand

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Quote from: worle1bm on January 20, 2020, 08:43:20 AM

Quote from: Bossian on January 20, 2020, 07:46:21 AM

A picture is worth a thousand words

Now, my advice: look at the price line since October 25 when the price was at 10.4k USD, the trend was never bullish. However it was very possible to make nice money (started several threads to recommend buying at 6.5kish in November and December).

Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.

Sad but true image. Cry

Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

Some are saying that the increase in the market value of Bitcoin is caused by the tension between US and Iran and the moment it cooled down, the market value of Bitcoin stopped increasing. I would say that it is just coincidence and the market itself is just volatile. The markrt price is now falling, and the bottomline is what would investors do? Will they sell at this point to cut further losses? Or They would stick with the plan of holding? I would say trust onto the process and be patient. Backdrops after an uprise is not new in this industry.

windjc

legendary

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Lol.

Last time I checked bitcoin was in a 10 year bull trend from .01$ to $8300.

Yeah go right ahead and sell your coins.

Noobs.

KnightElite

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The price breakdown in its previous support, the 20 MA is now also resisting at the price. If the 20 MA will strikes down and become support then the market will likely to go up again. I do not think that it is just a short term bullish. The bitcoin just lose momentum but if there is a massive volume again, then we will see upward movement in the chart. What happened is just a reset so we should not panic because of that.

worle1bm

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Quote from: milewilda on January 21, 2020, 04:11:34 PM

Quote from: worle1bm on January 20, 2020, 08:43:20 AM

Quote from: Bossian on January 20, 2020, 07:46:21 AM

Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.

Sad but true image. Cry

Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

We are actually tanking as of this moment and this is where waiting game begins yet the price had already started to go sideways once again and trying to figure it out on what would comes next?

Im not really fan on precisely following trend lines or indicators specially if theres a pattern on where the trend tends to break.Yes, we can presume but theres only two way either it would rally up
or would dump down.So for now, im preparing my stash for possible accumulation if ever it would crash.

It looks like I was right about the market. The price is moving between the mark of $8300 and $8600. Actually it is good for market to remain in this position for next few days. Stability around $8400 will ensure that another confirmed rally will come before the end of January. Another interesting thing is the sharp decline in the market volume. Daily trade volume for Bitcoin has declining since last week and came down to $20B from $32B. It also indicates that we gonna see trade reversal.

fabiorem

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The price have got out of the red alignment zone:

However, market sentiment is neutral, with a score of 49 in the CFGI. No sign of a bull run yet.

gabmen

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Quote from: bitvalak on January 23, 2020, 02:25:56 AM

The time frame you are using is too small, try using a weekly or monthly time frame. You will see a correction pattern from a bullish, weekly time frame I think is enough to see price movements in 2020. There have been 3x price rejections in November 2019, December 2019, and January 2020 in the $ 7000 area and I believe $ 7000 is the strongest support area for now. Then there is a price correction from the previous bearish trend which has reached more than 50%, is it possible it's just a correction? In my opinion it is not a price correction, but a reversal of the trend that began on January 3, 2020.

The chart can be interpreted in several ways. I do think what's happening is just a correction leading to march, and this correction won't be sustained to consider it as a trend reversal. People would consider a dip a good chance to prepare for the halving aftermath. Though this is just my take on what's happening and it's basically just as good as yours or anyone else's.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

Quote from: bitbunnny on January 22, 2020, 02:02:00 PM

Quote from: alexsandria on January 22, 2020, 01:06:38 PM

Quote from: bassbity on January 20, 2020, 08:24:28 AM

Bitcoin prices have dropped to $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

I think that further corrections will happen and 7000$ isn't that bad. To expect now the constant growth of price isn't that easy and no matter how 9000$ looks close to my opinion that boundary will be hard to cross. For a while we might have price fluctuations similar like now and the price will probably stay somwhere in the current range.

but if there were any more corrections on the way then they would have started already. not to mention that there isn't anything left to correct! price went up to $9k and then saw a little correction where it came back to $8.5k again and that was the only correction needed. anything more is not going to be a correction but an unreasonable drop.

piebeyb

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Bitcoin Trader

it doesn't matter if the 1W trend fails or the rally fails because there is still time in the next few weeks, why not wait and relax for a moment, I'm happy how the whales play with prices and charts, when everything will explode suddenly, I just use 1D trend in this picture, sorry I'm just a beginner, hopefully it doesn't drop below $ 7800
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZOr3KVis/

Topic: Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally - page 2. (Read 1190 times)