Topic: Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally - page 3. (Read 1190 times)
January 23, 2020, 02:25:56 AM
The time frame you are using is too small, try using a weekly or monthly time frame. You will see a correction pattern from a bullish, weekly time frame I think is enough to see price movements in 2020. There have been 3x price rejections in November 2019, December 2019, and January 2020 in the $ 7000 area and I believe $ 7000 is the strongest support area for now. Then there is a price correction from the previous bearish trend which has reached more than 50%, is it possible it's just a correction? In my opinion it is not a price correction, but a reversal of the trend that began on January 3, 2020.
January 22, 2020, 11:16:18 PM
There are correct assumptions here and there are wrong ones as well. The reality is, if we go under 8.5k we could totally go under 8k as well, that is not wrong and that could very well happen, however at the same time if we go up over 9.4k we could also see 11k as well, there is nothing stopping us all the way to 10.8k and that means we will most likely break 10k along with 9.4k.
Maybe it will go down, maybe it will go up, there is no reason to think bullish run is over, just because one correction doesn't equal to everything being doomed at all, sure its not good that it happened but I feel like this will make sure we have a smoother sailing towards high as well. Lets just wait before we jump to any conclusions, at least we should see some small movements before we decide.
Maybe it will go down, maybe it will go up, there is no reason to think bullish run is over, just because one correction doesn't equal to everything being doomed at all, sure its not good that it happened but I feel like this will make sure we have a smoother sailing towards high as well. Lets just wait before we jump to any conclusions, at least we should see some small movements before we decide.
January 22, 2020, 09:21:03 PM
~snip~
If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.
Bitcoin just touched the $9,000 level a few days ago and now it's stabilizing at around $8,600. So, if Bitcoin continue to drop below $8,000 level does that mean we're going to be afraid? I think you should not be afraid of, people who's frequently looking at the market are usually those who is holding for long term. Price movements are normal. The most important thing to keep in mind is to hit the price target before selling.
January 22, 2020, 06:51:33 PM
~snip~
If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.
Bitcoin just touched the $9,000 level a few days ago and now it's stabilizing at around $8,600. So, if Bitcoin continue to drop below $8,000 level does that mean we're going to be afraid? I think you should not be afraid of, people who's frequently looking at the market are usually those who is holding for long term. Price movements are normal. The most important thing to keep in mind is to hit the price target before selling.
January 22, 2020, 06:42:20 PM
Its a reasonable observation but there's never just one trend or idea driving a market. I agree its likely we've played this one out of immediate energy, this is just about the short term trades and swings to price not the grander moves in Bitcoin. Just plain volatility can move us to 10k imo though thats not so frequently happening.
We've perhaps lost the majority of momentum occurring after trading back above 50 day average but its probably a case of waiting for price to level out before we rise again. I do wonder if a reset can bring us back down to 8000 for the July trend break but I'm not expecting much more then that in terms of failure before it rebuilds and reattempts the 200 day average which admittedly is one of the most commonly watched indicators.
We've perhaps lost the majority of momentum occurring after trading back above 50 day average but its probably a case of waiting for price to level out before we rise again. I do wonder if a reset can bring us back down to 8000 for the July trend break but I'm not expecting much more then that in terms of failure before it rebuilds and reattempts the 200 day average which admittedly is one of the most commonly watched indicators.
January 22, 2020, 06:09:15 PM
OP, your chart is worth a thousand spits and not words.
I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.
I hope so I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.
January 22, 2020, 05:41:08 PM
OP, your chart is worth a thousand spits and not words.
I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.
I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.
January 22, 2020, 02:02:00 PM
Bitcoin prices have dropped to $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.
If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.
I think that further corrections will happen and 7000$ isn't that bad. To expect now the constant growth of price isn't that easy and no matter how 9000$ looks close to my opinion that boundary will be hard to cross. For a while we might have price fluctuations similar like now and the price will probably stay somwhere in the current range.
January 22, 2020, 01:06:38 PM
Bitcoin prices have dropped to $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.
If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.
January 22, 2020, 12:49:04 PM
I thought right now that we are supposed to see under $8,500 again because it's been $8,500+ but my speculation and expectation didn't go through. The price suddenly rose and managed to stand again to $8,700.
This is also what I thought initially, when I see the price going down in the last couple of days.
I'd say it's all over again, but then again, the price remains along the $8600-$8700 very surprising and I will say that we are still in the bullish trend, at least. So this might continue up until the end of the month, the bullishness of the market, the sentiments of the investors and confidence are still here.
Because they are only convinced that we're going bullish if the price never stops dropping. That's their basis to say that the bull has ended and it's their opinion regards to the market.
January 22, 2020, 12:34:30 PM
*skip*
Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).
In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.
Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).
In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.
I would like to comment on your price points:
-6.4k: strong buyers support and smart money accumulation - I agree
-10.5k: possible high resistance level, I agree, but could be smashed rather easily. Just look at the 2019 bull run.
-13.5k: I don't see this zone as a "make it or break it"-ATH indicator.
We have so little trading volume above 13.5k, that I would consider everything above it as "no mans land".
January 22, 2020, 02:07:44 AM
I thought right now that we are supposed to see under $8,500 again because it's been $8,500+ but my speculation and expectation didn't go through. The price suddenly rose and managed to stand again to $8,700.
This is also what I thought initially, when I see the price going down in the last couple of days.
I'd say it's all over again, but then again, the price remains along the $8600-$8700 very surprising and I will say that we are still in the bullish trend, at least. So this might continue up until the end of the month, the bullishness of the market, the sentiments of the investors and confidence are still here.
January 22, 2020, 02:03:13 AM
I don't know how we can call it a failed rally. It's too early to say, we need to wait further, perhaps April to see what really is going on the market. Is the block halving already price in or not?
Currently, I have seen a strong support @$8600 but if this is broken, then obviously the price will go further down. However, it is not the case, maybe the bulls is trying to get a grip of the market already in preparation of the halving in May.
Currently, I have seen a strong support @$8600 but if this is broken, then obviously the price will go further down. However, it is not the case, maybe the bulls is trying to get a grip of the market already in preparation of the halving in May.
January 22, 2020, 12:32:18 AM
Now, my advice: look at the price line since October 25 when the price was at 10.4k USD, the trend was never bullish. However it was very possible to make nice money (started several threads to recommend buying at 6.5kish in November and December).
Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.
Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).
In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.
Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.
Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).
In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.
I don’t think so that this will be the last bull rally in the short term, in fact a correction was long overdue and now that the correction has been done we may see more bull rallies happening in the short term. Also not sure what do you mean by no bullish indicator for 2020, because everyone knows that the halving event is the biggest trigger for bitcoin related bull rallies in 2020.
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/20/bitcoin-halving-isnt-priced-in-based-on-this-indicator-which-means-price-will-react/
January 22, 2020, 12:30:06 AM
I don't think so, yes we may be seeing a fall but it doesn't mean it is already a failed rally, it is normal for Bitcoin to experience a fall because that's how it is for years but we are waiting for the upcoming halving which may have a positive impact on the price. And I think, the price is strong resistance at $8500 mark as per the chart and if it will go down then it'll be within $8000-$8500.
January 21, 2020, 06:00:13 PM
I thought right now that we are supposed to see under $8,500 again because it's been $8,500+ but my speculation and expectation didn't go through. The price suddenly rose and managed to stand again to $8,700.
The reason why bitcoin is more valuable than dollar is not the fact that there is less of it, the reason why bitcoin is more valuable is that bitcoin can't be corrupted like fiat. If you think bullish run is over, you are wrong, it is only starting.
It's a fact that the limited supply of bitcoin is making it more valuable than any other currency. This is the reason why many are turning in to it and because of another fact that there are coins that are totally lost forever, this makes the supply even more precious as time goes by. 
January 21, 2020, 04:38:55 PM
Placing support in a chart is subjective, you place a diagonal support that is considered as minor support. As long as the price trail at 100 MA, the market is still in uptrend and it is a good sign because there are willing buyers. There is a major support at $8400, if the price goes down below that area then it is a bad sign because the sellers are overwhelmed by buyers.
We’re still up and bitcoin price didn’t stop from moving upward because right now bitcoin will test the resistance level again. The short term up trend is very critical and if bitcoin can’t break the wall then the lower support level will be hit again. No bullish sign yet but the trend is more likely to continue going up, let’s not lose hope at this early month of 2020. 
January 21, 2020, 04:11:34 PM
A picture is worth a thousand words
Now, my advice: look at the price line since October 25 when the price was at 10.4k USD, the trend was never bullish. However it was very possible to make nice money (started several threads to recommend buying at 6.5kish in November and December).
Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.
Sad but true image.
Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.
Im not really fan on precisely following trend lines or indicators specially if theres a pattern on where the trend tends to break.Yes, we can presume but theres only two way either it would rally up
or would dump down.So for now, im preparing my stash for possible accumulation if ever it would crash.
January 21, 2020, 02:55:23 PM
A picture is worth a thousand words
Context is everything. While I think such trend line breaks are important to note, they often only indicate short term consolidation before resumption of the previous trend. Here's a common example of the psychology at play around local trend line breaks:
I want to see a more pronounced failure before projecting $7K, $6.4K, and lower like you are.
January 21, 2020, 02:19:50 PM
People being so pessimistic about bitcoin has always made me laugh, I mean sure go ahead and sell all your coins, go fully into fiat currency, I wouldn't mind, I would be glad that people like these get out of the market and people who actually believe in the prospect of bitcoin just stayed. Think about it, what is the other option? Being in fiat?
Fiat currency has been devaluing every single year, hell every single day, just 100 years ago you could have bought a house for 100 dollars, today you can buy a very expensive burger for it. The reason why bitcoin is more valuable than dollar is not the fact that there is less of it, the reason why bitcoin is more valuable is that bitcoin can't be corrupted like fiat. If you think bullish run is over, you are wrong, it is only starting.
Fiat currency has been devaluing every single year, hell every single day, just 100 years ago you could have bought a house for 100 dollars, today you can buy a very expensive burger for it. The reason why bitcoin is more valuable than dollar is not the fact that there is less of it, the reason why bitcoin is more valuable is that bitcoin can't be corrupted like fiat. If you think bullish run is over, you are wrong, it is only starting.
Jump to: