The other thing is the ratio between shorts/longs that is more of a indicator of "how dangerous is a short squeeze" if you look right now that's at 21.1%
At what point do you think the risk of a short-squeeze may become too dangerous for shorters?
Yeah, this thread (for me at least) is about: how likely is a short squeeze.
Things is: we simply don't have the data to judge this. Aggregate amount of swaps just doesn't cut it. We'd need a list of positions with price and ideally leverage used. We jcould guesstimage when positions are opened (new swaps taken) and we'd know roughly the price. We could also guesstimate when positions are being closed (swap amount decreses) and we'd know roughly the price. But we'd miss a crucial piece of info: which positions are being closed?
I wish bitfinex (or other exchanges) was radically transparent with that kind of data. Why stop at the orderbook? I'd also like to see a list of stops. No hidden orders, either. That'd resemble a fair playing field.
The way it currently is, the exchange itself (or people working for it), have an unfair advantage against the 'normal' market participants.
Running a fractional reserve scheme or disappropriating user funds seem archaic compared to taking advantage of more detailed than published orderbook status, position and user balance information. That taking advantage would work wholly undetectably and without using special powers (just by making trades through the normal user api), too.
How likely do you guys think is this kind of "insider knowledge" being used by insiders of exchanges?
You're implying something very important: Exchanges know their order book, they know the hidden order, they know the stops (if traders use the exchange stops), and may use these information for their own profit and gain. Sure, it would be more transparent, but would all exchanges be willing to implement it?
Would you rather trade on an exchange that implements this or some other exchange?
Seems to me we need more competition in exchanges regarding transparency and protection against such potential exchange malfeasance.
However, it seems customers most important criteria for picking an exchange to trade on seems to be the liquidity provided and its trading volume.
Granted, it would make the exchanges less shady and more trustworthy, yeah! But a lot of people may prefer the ability to place hidden orders right in front of / behind walls. If there was only one exchange left that offered those features, they would get all the customers requesting such a feature.
. Thanks for pointing out some of the USD swaps are likely for LTC longs. I hadn't considered that.
