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Topic: Should I sell my Jalapeno? Seems to be working fine, but... (Read 5739 times)

hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.
That's a pretty bold statement. "Unprofitable in 9-12 months"? So, they're drawing 30W, which works out to around $2.50 (or less in some cases) of electricity used per MONTH! For a BFL ASIC to be "unprofitable", it would mean that BTC prices remain stagnant and the difficulty becomes such that you would only mine roughly 0.02 BTC per month, or around 0.00067 BTC per day. That would imply a difficulty ramp to 4 billion or higher (a 375x increase from today's difficulty of around 12.5 million). And that, frankly, is lunacy.


Sorry for digging up this thread. It's be 12 months. Difficulty is over 10 Billion. trogdorjw73 - not, frankly, lunacy anymore. There are unprofitable/maybe squeaking out a few cents at the most efficient settings.


Told you so...

lol. Grin
hero member
Activity: 839
Merit: 608
For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.
That's a pretty bold statement. "Unprofitable in 9-12 months"? So, they're drawing 30W, which works out to around $2.50 (or less in some cases) of electricity used per MONTH! For a BFL ASIC to be "unprofitable", it would mean that BTC prices remain stagnant and the difficulty becomes such that you would only mine roughly 0.02 BTC per month, or around 0.00067 BTC per day. That would imply a difficulty ramp to 4 billion or higher (a 375x increase from today's difficulty of around 12.5 million). And that, frankly, is lunacy.


Sorry for digging up this thread. It's be 12 months. Difficulty is over 10 Billion. trogdorjw73 - not, frankly, lunacy anymore. There are unprofitable/maybe squeaking out a few cents at the most efficient settings.
sr. member
Activity: 288
Merit: 250
Mining forever!  Cool
hero member
Activity: 516
Merit: 500
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
One bitcoin to rule them all!
Glad you made up your mind, even though I would have chosen differently. Smiley

I guess the coffee cups were ordered a long time ago, when they still thought it would be USB powered.
Exchanging the heatsink/fan might make a lot of sense with this unit, although it will no longer look as sleek. But then again, it will look a lot more geek, and that is even cooler. Wink

I assume that you may be able to flash it in some time, and get more than the stated 5Gh.

And who knows - in the future it might become a collectors item.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 255
Congrats Canton!

I am glad you decided to keep it (though I think I advised selling it earlier in the thread).

The heart and the head lead to different paths but that doesn't mean they both can't be right.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
Glad you got it and it is mining!

Keep us posted on stability etc great to see hard evidence of these things mining and posts from users thanks.
sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 285
FYI  a couple of people have asked so I'm posting this here:

Idle: 14W
Active: 33W
Typical Hashrate: 5.7 GH/s
Temperature (as reported by BitMinter client, anyway) around 46-50 C.

I'm pleased with everything except the noise (hadn't anticipated a fan at all based on the "coffee warmer" marketing back in june 2012) and the power consumption (because I can't quite run it off my hobby solar array which would have handled a raspberry pi + 5W jalapeño just fine.)

It's been running 24h for a week now, no problems so far. I do wish BFL had thought to include at least a paragraph or two with their packaging along the lines of "how to use this." It's not like they haven't had enough time to organize shipping materials. Instead the mysterious cube shipped with the requisite cables only and what the fuck a coffee mug like I'm actually going to set a cup of coffee on something that's more valuable than my laptop. No "read me". No "don't eat this" silica packet. Just a cube and a mug. Anyway:

Here's how it's installed right now, adjacent to the PowerBook G4 running Debian GNU/Linux 6.0.5 which I *hope* to use for mining once I can figure out how to compile a compatible miner... The exposed hardware you see behind the Jalapeño is my wife's Nexus 7 which she dropped in the bathtub today. I figured the Jalapeño's hot air output would do a nice job drying out the Nexus circuits over the next couple days:



Conclusion? I decided to keep it. Might not be as financially lucrative as selling it for 25BTC and holding onto them, but I got into Bitcoin for the excitement / hobby aspect, and having this little whirring supercomputer makes it feel more fun, especially in case this whole economy tanks and all I'm left with is memories and electricity bills. Smiley

Self-serving plug: For any readers who are interested in either hoarding bitcoins long-term or having a way to *gift* bitcoins to friends, family, or coworkers with beautiful and idiot-proof paper wallets, I cordially invite you to check out my hobby project to embed Bitcoins on what I think are the the most elegant and secure paper wallets made to date:

http://bitcoinpaperwallet.com

I put a ton of heart and thought into this project and I hope you'll check it out.

Over & out,
- Canton
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
The best bet would probably be to keep it though selling it to some sucker for big price is not bad thing too Smiley

I personally would never buy it if the price wouldn't be at least 20% less than it is usual prediction of what it could produce with difficulty rising.

Why would I put the risk from your back to mine for very small chance of difficulty staying lower and me gaining a bit more..
PeZ
sr. member
Activity: 297
Merit: 250
Is it me, or something is not right with one of those Jalapeno shadows?  Huh
They are magical lucky charms that float in the air.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
decentralizedhashing.com
Overclock it till it burns!  Run it for all it's worth while the difficulty is low Smiley
full member
Activity: 260
Merit: 100
It's a tough call, but I think about $2700 is break-even. If you can get more than that now, I'd sell it. That's based on 15% difficulty increase every two weeks going forward. To make >$3000 over its lifetime, difficulty would have to increase less than ~13% every two weeks, which I think is pretty unlikely.
full member
Activity: 184
Merit: 100

(Couldn't resist.)

Is it me, or something is not right with one of those Jalapeno shadows?  Huh




It's just you.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100

(Couldn't resist.)

Is it me, or something is not right with one of those Jalapeno shadows?  Huh


hero member
Activity: 697
Merit: 500

For $3000 I would sell the baby.
If the difficulty increases at its current rate you will not make that much in block rewards.


Forget difficulty... There's a more serious wave approaching from a distance.



Go away bear, we want the OP to take more BTC off the market with his sale and pump the price even further. BTC TO THE MOOOOOOOON!!!!!




















did I do well as a BTC speculation troll?
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100

For $3000 I would sell the baby.
If the difficulty increases at its current rate you will not make that much in block rewards.


Forget difficulty... There's a more serious wave approaching from a distance.

legendary
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1075
^ Will code for Bitcoins
25-30 BTC will buy you 15x more GHs than you have today. Maybe even 20x if you hit the right group buy. Problem is you may not be able to buy it in next 3 months. Optimists will tell you in a month, but that's not realistic. The longer you wait, you may see your 30 BTC offer go down to 2-3 BTC when other miners come to market.

Question is: will difficulty go 15x higher in 3 months? My opinion is that difficulty will not go that high, so I would sell, wait 3 months and buy 70 GHs.

But it is tough call.
KS
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
How much do you think it will be worth when the 300USD Klondike16 (4.5 GH/s) will ship in about 2 months? Still 3000 USD?

Which will get you 25BTC faster?

A/ sell the Jally for 25BTC
B/ mine with the Jally
C/ mine with 10x the equivalent of a Jally?

Which will get you more BTC in 12+ months?

A/ sell the Jally for 25BTC
B/ mine with the Jally
C/ mine with 10x the equivalent of a Jally?

newbie
Activity: 27
Merit: 0
Just to throw my .2BTC in here...

At today's difficulty, it would take you around 10-15 days to recoup your initial investment (in $USD).  It'll take you much longer to recoup your BTC investment, but it will probably still be around 6 months to a year.

I'd keep it and mine it if it was me.  But it's not me, it's you.

If you want to sell, you'll make money immediately, but if you keep it it will probably be worth more in BTC over 2-3 years.
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
If you can sell your Jalapeno for $3000, then consider this:
$3000 can buy 250-300 Avalon chips. Those can hash at 300 x 280MH/s per chip = 84GH/s.
Even if it costs you half of that $3000 to have them put on Klondike boards, you still turn 5GH/s into 42GH/s in 2-3 months.




Best advice, probably garnering the most risk. High risk yields higher profits.
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