For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.
That's a pretty bold statement. "Unprofitable in 9-12 months"? So, they're drawing 30W, which works out to around $2.50 (or less in some cases) of electricity used per MONTH! For a BFL ASIC to be "unprofitable", it would mean that BTC prices remain stagnant and the difficulty becomes such that you would only mine roughly 0.02 BTC per month, or around 0.00067 BTC per day. That would imply a difficulty ramp to 4 billion or higher (a 375x increase from today's difficulty of around 12.5 million). And that, frankly, is lunacy.
Now if you mean you expect BFL hardware to fail thanks to a poor design and manufacturing process and that you won't get more than 9-12 months of use out of the Jalepeno, that's a different matter. I'm not sure things will be quite that bad, but I wouldn't expect a Jalepeno to merrily mine away for several years without issue.
Hardly, courtesy of jspeilberg; Bitsyncom's chip wallet is currently holding ~60,000 BTC which represents 760,000 Asic chips which translates to +215THash worth of asics coming on line once they ship.
AsicMiner... BTCGarden and others are good for another 100 - 200 THash in the next 2 months. BFL will most likely still struggle to add any serious hashpower onto the network for a couple of months.
That's first gen ASIC online approximately August ~ 4 months away. A years time while be a very, very different landscape. Bear in mind as Yifu stated at Bitcoin 2013, we don't even know the effect from private equity developing their own chips and won't until they come online, which they should also by August if they started in Feb. They're Yifu's words...
