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Topic: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. - page 3. (Read 10715 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
The liquidity in silver will dry up very easily, if the crisis hits. Already in 1999 the physical was almost out and 2008 it was in a serious shortage. The key to understanding this is to know that exchanges around the world deal only with about 200 Moz of actual silver, and the coinshops come second. 99% of the world's silver is not in any liquid form and will be unavailable to investors should something happen.

If it is a reasonable thing to secure your share of the world's bitcoins, so is it with silver. I am delighted to see that bitcoin folks generally favor silver second only to bitcoin, and silver (&gold) people are flocking to bitcoins. This is a great synergy Smiley

I really disagree with this. In contrast to bitcoin and gold, the silver stock grows at a rate of 6/8% per year. The economy (products/services/assets) only grows by 1/2% per year so logic dictates that the purchasing power of silver will go down over time, as it indeed has done (long term).

The gold stock only grows with 1/2% per year, same growth rate as economy. Bitcoin now grows at 5/10% per year but will not grow at all soon enough, which never happened with previous money, and therefore has the only fundamentals to increase in purchasing power over time.  

Maximum about 400Moz of the mine production stays aboveground. This is 2% of the total stock of 20B. So it is only slightly worse than gold.

How can silver disappear back underground?

At worst it ends up on waste bells, but all that is recyclable, and will be recycled if the price goes up enough, giving indeed an 'inflation' rate of 6/8% per year.

The amount of silver that is unrecoverable for reasonable price is negligible.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
The liquidity in silver will dry up very easily, if the crisis hits. Already in 1999 the physical was almost out and 2008 it was in a serious shortage. The key to understanding this is to know that exchanges around the world deal only with about 200 Moz of actual silver, and the coinshops come second. 99% of the world's silver is not in any liquid form and will be unavailable to investors should something happen.

If it is a reasonable thing to secure your share of the world's bitcoins, so is it with silver. I am delighted to see that bitcoin folks generally favor silver second only to bitcoin, and silver (&gold) people are flocking to bitcoins. This is a great synergy Smiley

I really disagree with this. In contrast to bitcoin and gold, the silver stock grows at a rate of 6/8% per year. The economy (products/services/assets) only grows by 1/2% per year so logic dictates that the purchasing power of silver will go down over time, as it indeed has done (long term).

The gold stock only grows with 1/2% per year, same growth rate as economy. Bitcoin now grows at 5/10% per year but will not grow at all soon enough, which never happened with previous money, and therefore has the only fundamentals to increase in purchasing power over time.  

Maximum about 400Moz of the mine production stays aboveground. This is 2% of the total stock of 20B. So it is only slightly worse than gold.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Net worth <$10k = 100% BTC
$10 - $100k = 50% BTC, 50% silver
$100 - $500k = 25% BTC, 50% silver, 25% gold
$500k - $5M = maximum 5-10k BTC, rest split up 50/50 in silver & gold
more = have fun Smiley

I wonder why you're suggesting less BTC holdings in absulute terms for high-net-worth people than for the lowest-net-worth category?

I meant 5000-10000 BTC Smiley

Because I see not much point in holding more regardless how wealthy you are.

Interesting. Why do you see not much point?

And inversely why do you find it wise for people with few capital to risk it all in bitcoin?

You might be right, I'm conflicted, so curious what your reasoning is.


sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
The liquidity in silver will dry up very easily, if the crisis hits. Already in 1999 the physical was almost out and 2008 it was in a serious shortage. The key to understanding this is to know that exchanges around the world deal only with about 200 Moz of actual silver, and the coinshops come second. 99% of the world's silver is not in any liquid form and will be unavailable to investors should something happen.

If it is a reasonable thing to secure your share of the world's bitcoins, so is it with silver. I am delighted to see that bitcoin folks generally favor silver second only to bitcoin, and silver (&gold) people are flocking to bitcoins. This is a great synergy Smiley

I really disagree with this. In contrast to bitcoin and gold, the silver stock grows at a rate of 6/8% per year. The economy (products/services/assets) only grows by 1/2% per year so logic dictates that the purchasing power of silver will go down over time, as it indeed has done (long term).

The gold stock only grows with 1/2% per year, same growth rate as economy. Bitcoin now grows at 5/10% per year but will not grow at all soon enough, which never happened with previous money, and therefore has the only fundamentals to increase in purchasing power over time.  

 
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
A well-kept secret is that during Fall 2008, official graphs tell you that silver price tanked real bad. In fact, physical silver was the only asset that appreciated during the liquidity squeeze.

 Huh

This was not true where I live. Agreed that physical silver was hard to get for the official prices of $10, after it collapsed from $20. I'm pretty confident however that if you added say 20% over spot I would have gotten as much physical silver as I liked from the local dealers. So eventhough the premium on physical silver went up considerably indeed, the value of physical silver did drop hard during the liquidity crises of 2008.

I find it hard to believe that it was different where you live.

I can only speak from my own experience, which was sufficiently elaborated above. Yes, the dollar price of 1oz physical did go down from the top value reached in early March, 2008, but ceased going down in the autumn, when the liquidity crisis hit. And then it started even going up, and was very difficult to get, all the same time that the paper silver was sagging and making new lows.

The gap closed the following year. By buying paper silver aggressively when few others believed that it will be honored, you could have made money.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
A well-kept secret is that during Fall 2008, official graphs tell you that silver price tanked real bad. In fact, physical silver was the only asset that appreciated during the liquidity squeeze.

 Huh

This was not true where I live. Agreed that physical silver was hard to get for the official prices of $10, after it collapsed from $20 in fall 2008. I'm pretty confident however that if you added say 20% over spot I would have gotten as much physical silver as I liked from the local dealers. So eventhough the premium on physical silver went up considerably indeed, the value of physical silver did drop hard during the liquidity crises of 2008.

I find it hard to believe that it was different where you live.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
it's doesn't work this way.

new tech completely replaces old tech.

eg boats, you don't see people going back to swimming or rafts,
planes, you don't see people going back to not flying
you don't see electrcity not replacing kerosene lamps

the store of wealth function of silver and gold are largely over with the advent on CC's

until you can tele-port gold, make it government proof, unseizble, untrackable, weigh almost nothing and unable to be manipulated, then get back to me.

None of these apply (except the weight) to CC either.

In fact, precious metal is far more anonymous than CC.  Think about it.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1001
Energy is Wealth
Silver's function as a store of wealth has stopped a long time ago. Less than 5% of the silver is used for coins and bullion. It is the element with the highest electrical conductivity and the second most used commodity in modern times (behind oil).
It is needed daily. The more i need something the more i am willing to pay for it.
In the making of a bitcoin, silver is used. No bitcoin is needed to mine silver.
legendary
Activity: 2632
Merit: 1023
it's doesn't work this way.

new tech completely replaces old tech.

eg boats, you don't see people going back to swimming or rafts,
planes, you don't see people going back to not flying
you don't see electrcity not replacing kerosene lamps

the store of wealth function of silver and gold are largely over with the advent on CC's

until you can tele-port gold, make it government proof, unseizble, untrackable, weigh almost nothing and unable to be manipulated, then get back to me.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Yup, I'll be able to place my shorts higher.  Grin

that'll look awkward.
full member
Activity: 207
Merit: 100
Yup, I'll be able to place my shorts higher.  Grin
LOL It is very funny  Angry
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Yup, I'll be able to place my shorts higher.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 1057
someone is launching the silver rocket Smiley
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
It's the full VAT here, but even with 7% I'd feel it's rigged against me. Perhaps Bitcoin has spoiled me? 0.8% premium for a kg of gold here btw, just checked. Lol @ paper divergence tinfoil hats.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Aren't you in Germany? Considering VAT applies to silver, it's pretty much worthless to invest in it as opposed to gold, in my view.

7% VAT, yes.

Compare buying with 7% VAT today to buying 1-2 years ago with no VAT.

EDIT: It will be 19% VAT in germany on any type of silver starting 2014/1/1. Just decided by the crooks who rule us couple days ago.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

The difference is the time frame from top to current bottom. Price has fallen at a slower percent rate over time.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Aren't you in Germany? Considering VAT applies to silver, it's pretty much worthless to invest in it as opposed to gold, in my view.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
It is very nice to see the price goes down when you are waiting to buy but keep in mind that it is paper silver price the physical worth around 30 $ right now (check on ebay or at goldsilverbitcoin/amagi metals, bitcoin accepting vendors)

You are correct of course (although $30 is too high for physical worth. I could buy for $24.45 at my usually expensive local shop today)

My local dealer still uses the same (albeit high) margin.

Let's put it this way: at least a lower paper price still means a lower physical price.

I fully expect a disconnect of physical price from paper price as soon as there is a real shortage of physical, because who in his right mind would sell at spot + normal margin if he can get much more because of the shortage?

I don't see this happening yet, though, so I'm holding tight for the paper fuckers to slam the metals some more.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
Dollar cost averaging for the win.
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