Snipie's gambling investment test - page 18.

xxjumperxx

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Quote from: Reid on July 03, 2020, 03:31:40 AM

Or, we need more players that could suffice that loss. Like a balance of 1 whale = 20 average players.
I think that should be enough.

I am not actually worried about this since we are investing in the house. It can come back to a green color anytime.
If that whale comes back without lady luck on his side then we will be gaining once again. Grin

Most gamblers are not disciplined...
I can almost guarantee he will come back to bet again... thinking "Wow I made so much money, how about I go back to make more"....

He will be back and thats how odds work, he will lose it...

Buuut some are disciplined, maybe he took his winnings and signed off.

Reid

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Quote from: DarkDays on July 02, 2020, 12:33:52 PM

Quote from: Reid on July 02, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

A large whale can easily tank the bankroll of a relatively small casino by -1.5%.

Usuallly these platforms have maximum bet sizes and other restrictions in place to help minimize the odds of this, but lucky streaks do occur.

Depending on how much volume the platform turns over, it could take quite some time before the 1.5% loss is recouped—probably around 3 months if it generates an APR of 6% per year.

Better hope another whale doesn't come along and knock it back even further in that time.

Or, we need more players that could suffice that loss. Like a balance of 1 whale = 20 average players.
I think that should be enough.

I am not actually worried about this since we are investing in the house. It can come back to a green color anytime.
If that whale comes back without lady luck on his side then we will be gaining once again. Grin

jademaxsuy

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Quote from: Natalim on July 02, 2020, 06:34:59 PM

That's a lose but then it's still -1.5%, that's just too small compared to the total investment, just let it pass and relax.
As long as you trust the casino will win in the long run, you'll eventually be in the profitable side over time.

I'm sure casinos are aware that they would also lose some money, but they are confident that they can win as they trust the model of their business.

Loss is part of investment and it coule be far worse than it could be if not having much luck in the investments. There are always times for difficulties and times for higher profits or high returns.

As expected most of the investment had already taking plan one step ahead and that enable for any establisment to coup up with the losses.

However, there are kind of investment that will only bloom in a certain trend and it could goes around after lossing some new trends. Therefore it will be a good practice that when one invest should understand and apply new trends as changes so that business will always resume as time passes by.

Natalim

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Quote from: stomachgrowls on July 02, 2020, 05:52:06 PM

Quote from: DarkDays on July 02, 2020, 12:33:52 PM

Quote from: Reid on July 02, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

A large whale can easily tank the bankroll of a relatively small casino by -1.5%.

Usuallly these platforms have maximum bet sizes and other restrictions in place to help minimize the odds of this, but lucky streaks do occur.

Depending on how much volume the platform turns over, it could take quite some time before the 1.5% loss is recouped—probably around 3 months if it generates an APR of 6% per year.

Better hope another whale doesn't come along and knock it back even further in that time.

These are the things that you should worry about when you are investing with the house on which you shouldnt hope for someone to have big wins or streaks

because this would really result into negative ones but we know that house do always win but there are instances on where players do win big time.

So these kind of situation cant really be avoided. I do see reds for several weeks basing of the table shown but small percentage wont really hurt that much though.

That's a lose but then it's still -1.5%, that's just too small compared to the total investment, just let it pass and relax.
As long as you trust the casino will win in the long run, you'll eventually be in the profitable side over time.

I'm sure casinos are aware that they would also lose some money, but they are confident that they can win as they trust the model of their business.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: DarkDays on July 02, 2020, 12:33:52 PM

Quote from: Reid on July 02, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

A large whale can easily tank the bankroll of a relatively small casino by -1.5%.

Usuallly these platforms have maximum bet sizes and other restrictions in place to help minimize the odds of this, but lucky streaks do occur.

Depending on how much volume the platform turns over, it could take quite some time before the 1.5% loss is recouped—probably around 3 months if it generates an APR of 6% per year.

Better hope another whale doesn't come along and knock it back even further in that time.

These are the things that you should worry about when you are investing with the house on which you shouldnt hope for someone to have big wins or streaks

because this would really result into negative ones but we know that house do always win but there are instances on where players do win big time.

So these kind of situation cant really be avoided. I do see reds for several weeks basing of the table shown but small percentage wont really hurt that much though.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: snipie on July 02, 2020, 09:49:06 AM

We all suffered this loss depending from our share in the bankroll. That big deep was quite unexpected but of course possible. Lucky whale!

I must say that it was not unexpected

It was only - 1.2% - quite normal. In April 2019 we've seen 2 red weeks with -7% and in January -11% after 4 lucky days for whale. This second dump is interesting because after that there was 40% in 2 months. Someone was chasing loses like crazy.

DarkDays

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Quote from: Reid on July 02, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

A large whale can easily tank the bankroll of a relatively small casino by -1.5%.

Usuallly these platforms have maximum bet sizes and other restrictions in place to help minimize the odds of this, but lucky streaks do occur.

Depending on how much volume the platform turns over, it could take quite some time before the 1.5% loss is recouped—probably around 3 months if it generates an APR of 6% per year.

Better hope another whale doesn't come along and knock it back even further in that time.

Maus0728

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on July 02, 2020, 03:04:30 AM

What do you guys think about "trading on casino profit chart?". Not saying about doing regular TA (trend lines etc) but simply investing on the dips? From first look it does not makes sense. This chart is not moving based on supply and demand and should be moving 100% random in short term while in long term going up, but is it 100% random?

I recently closed my investment due to negative return caused by lucky gamblers and it was a surprise that today had a massive dip of more or less 4 BTC from the reflected site profit.

You have a point though, but the fact that the lucky winner have gained an upperhand on the casino, he/she is more likely going to bet a larger amount of money knowing that the lucky whale have an option to choose a higher chance of winning rate Sad

.

snipie

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Quote from: Reid on July 02, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

https://i.ibb.co/dmx935C/yolo2.png

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

We all suffered this loss depending from our share in the bankroll. That big deep was quite unexpected but of course possible. Lucky whale!

Reid

hero member

Activity: 3024

Merit: 651

Did you all felt it too or is it just me?

As I said before, I recently renewed my investment with more addition because I accidentally closed it.
Is this the product of starting over again or did it really just went down with all of us?

stadus

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Quote from: snipie on June 30, 2020, 10:03:42 AM

Quote from: stadus on June 30, 2020, 09:31:39 AM

Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 30, 2020, 07:36:58 AM

Ouch, that LTC Graph looks bad...
Investors took a huge hit on that one! :O
My BTC Invest is still in red, but Im not too worried, just need to stop checking it soo often Cheesy

Maybe set a goal and time frame of your investment so you don't have to check your investment on a daily basis, that's very stressful mate, you need to learn how to discipline yourself and just trust the gambling site you are investing with.

Kinda like HODL your bitcoin until it becomes equivalent to 6 numbers ($)

We definitely try to disciple ourselves but at the end everybody is checking the bitcoin chart/price everyday Wink

Yeah that's it, I know it's hard at the beginning but along the way you'll learn to discipline yourself.
Actually it's nice to monitor it daily but you need to ensure that it's not affecting you, thing is, we are human, when we are happy or we are sad, it might change our mood, and we know investing is like gambling as well, sometimes we have a bad days so if we are mature, we will be able to face that without any problem.

leea-1334

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Temporary forum vacation

Yep, I was affected too (1.6% right now over the last week) but the thing is we really cannot view the charts like this. Casino and house edge is all about long term and in this sense we talk about years, not months. For years I was in profit at bitvest too, and then boom this year it wiped almost everything out because of a lucky whale. I am confident it will still give profit over long term but again, we mean YEARS. The same will happen for yolo, minus variance for sure.

LogitechMouse

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Quote from: xxjumperxx on July 02, 2020, 01:10:04 AM

Quote from: LogitechMouse on July 01, 2020, 08:09:15 PM

I just wake up in the morning and I see this:

That huge red candle take some of my profit and I know that some experienced it too. From 70k sats profit down to just 20k as of this moment. What happened to the investment of other investors here? Just sad on my part but it is part of the game. What a lucky gambler he is Cheesy

.

Wow, I was lucky enough to pull a big portion of my investment before the red candle hit the Bankroll!
But thats gambling, he was lucky and the house lost on this one, thats why investments should be long term, because the house always wins in the end...
I ended my investment in the red, but I needed them BTC but lucky I pulled when I did.

I'm still in profit though but that was a huge loss for me. My profit that I waited for around a month or more just vanished in an instant.
Well, you're right. Investing in a gambling site is considered gambling too and if a gambler came to get huge profit then he is lucky. That is how gambling works too so no need to be afraid off Cheesy

. I have put my mindset already into a state where I don't feel anything if I will incur a huge loss in my investment. I'm still in profit right now though but... yeah hahaha lucky for you that you pulled your investment there or you will have a larger loss.

xxjumperxx

sr. member

Activity: 546

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Buy Bitcoin!

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on July 02, 2020, 03:04:30 AM

What do you guys think about "trading on casino profit chart?". Not saying about doing regular TA (trend lines etc) but simply investing on the dips? From first look it does not makes sense. This chart is not moving based on supply and demand and should be moving 100% random in short term while in long term going up, but is it 100% random?

I'm just thinking:

-How often did you withdraw your profit from gambling site?

If someone wins big:
In most cases people gamble until they loose everything. Even if they double/tripple they come back next day to lose it all. They have different approach with profit money than with earned money (are willing to take more risks).
If someone loose big:
In most cases leaves casino for a while (waiting for next month salary f.e). He simply can't play more without money.

So i'm saying that after dumps casino has higher chances for short term profit than after pumps and that dives you nice kick for the start of your investment.

That does make sense indeed.
I have heard of it multiple times that its good to invest on dips.

Players are greedy, they simply are!
So when people win, they usually dont leave the casino with the winnings.
They stay or come back and gamble again, often losing their winnings and even more on top of that.
There can only be so much luck and the house edge will eventually even out.

Same goes for people losing as you mentioned, they keep chasing their losses and lose more and more...

Tytanowy Janusz

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What do you guys think about "trading on casino profit chart?". Not saying about doing regular TA (trend lines etc) but simply investing on the dips? From first look it does not makes sense. This chart is not moving based on supply and demand and should be moving 100% random in short term while in long term going up, but is it 100% random?

I'm just thinking:

-How often did you withdraw your profit from gambling site?

If someone wins big:
In most cases people gamble until they loose everything. Even if they double/tripple they come back next day to lose it all. They have different approach with profit money than with earned money (are willing to take more risks).
If someone loose big:
In most cases leaves casino for a while (waiting for next month salary f.e). He simply can't play more without money.

So i'm saying that after dumps casino has higher chances for short term profit than after pumps and that dives you nice kick for the start of your investment.

xxjumperxx

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Buy Bitcoin!

Quote from: LogitechMouse on July 01, 2020, 08:09:15 PM

I just wake up in the morning and I see this:

That huge red candle take some of my profit and I know that some experienced it too. From 70k sats profit down to just 20k as of this moment. What happened to the investment of other investors here? Just sad on my part but it is part of the game. What a lucky gambler he is Cheesy

.

Wow, I was lucky enough to pull a big portion of my investment before the red candle hit the Bankroll!
But thats gambling, he was lucky and the house lost on this one, thats why investments should be long term, because the house always wins in the end...
I ended my investment in the red, but I needed them BTC but lucky I pulled when I did.

LogitechMouse

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I just wake up in the morning and I see this:

That huge red candle take some of my profit and I know that some experienced it too. From 70k sats profit down to just 20k as of this moment. What happened to the investment of other investors here? Just sad on my part but it is part of the game. What a lucky gambler he is Cheesy

.

snipie

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#SWGT CERTIK Audited

Quote from: STT on July 01, 2020, 07:20:59 PM

Quote

3% on my main investment. My second one is -6%

Is it fair to say when we see a dip like this it might be a good time to enter the market, presuming that the house loss or bad run will turn back to profits also in future just by the laws of probability. Thats presuming the whale or whatever situation caused the loss, continues their games and allows the casino to get back its house fee and recover the profits on future games. If people never won after all we'd just see a continual decline in business and revenue so its some kind of hidden positive when the casino pays out big?

Complex situation. The laws of probability tell that the house is always winning but sometimes at Yolodice, the losses are important in a short time. In the stats chart we see a constant growth in the long term (years) but in the medium range (weeks) there is a huge volatility with a big deep. Now doge and LTC experienced this few days ago and today was the turn of BTC with - 4 BTC. Right now my BTC investment is - 0.00025559 BTC, look at the table to see how it was before few hours!
There is crazy dudes betting with big numbers, 10 BTC? seriously! I gotta have a heart attack, depression and every thing you could imagine if I lose it.
So Yolo is winning most of the time and sometimes huge whales come and eat the whole tuna tribe. The problem you never know when they will come again. The investment will recover surely but how long it takes? Is investing now safe? No one knows

STT

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Quote

3% on my main investment. My second one is -6%

Is it fair to say when we see a dip like this it might be a good time to enter the market, presuming that the house loss or bad run will turn back to profits also in future just by the laws of probability. Thats presuming the whale or whatever situation caused the loss, continues their games and allows the casino to get back its house fee and recover the profits on future games. If people never won after all we'd just see a continual decline in business and revenue so its some kind of hidden positive when the casino pays out big?

freedomgo

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Quote from: snipie on July 01, 2020, 07:23:29 AM

Updated the table. We are now in week 4.

Still a reddish week on both BTC and LTC investments although investors suffered huge losses in LTC due to crazy whales. I was there when a guy grabbed around 170 LTC in few minutes. Now my LTC investment is minus -0.04.
For BTC things are getting better and we may profit again soon tho

You are just negative of "- 0.2899 %", that's a very small loses, if we can stomach our loses investing in crypto where we lose 50% of our investment, for sure this one is not really a big deal, and I believe that your investment will eventually grow and you'll get a positive ROI soon.

Topic: Snipie's gambling investment test - page 18. (Read 6452 times)