Snipie's gambling investment test - page 20.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Maus0728 on June 24, 2020, 07:52:41 AM

So let's say I added another 0.01 BTC in my investment making it a total of 0.02 BTC. For the multiplier, I've used the actual site profit rather than the expected site profit.
(0.02 / 218) * (395 / 2) = 0.018 BTC

Question: I am earning 0.018 BTC in average? or per year?

It depends on where those 395 BTC comes from. I guess it is total profit (starting from 2016) so its "per 4 years". But I would not take such long time frame bacause we dont know how big bankroll was than. It could be 50 BTC not 200.

You can do it like that:

Profit in 24.06.2019 - 335 BTC
Profit now - 395 BTC

1 year profit - 60 BTC

(0.02/218) * (60/2) = 0.00275

0.00275 / 0.02 = 13.75 % annual ROI

But this estimation does not include bankroll change. Its 218 BTC, it can go to 400 in 1 year or drop to 50.

Calculating the same (annual ROI) based on old investors resoults:

We have 11.75% in 6 months - 24% annualy -so it looks like during last 6 months total invesments at least double or triple.

Maus0728

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on June 24, 2020, 06:04:55 AM

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Let us take a look at the actual statistics shown in YoloDice site. Currently we have a total wagered amount of approximate 45,300 BTC. So if the house edge is 1% then the gambling site is earning an approximate 450 BTC which is true as shown in the site profit statistics isn't it?

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on June 24, 2020, 06:04:55 AM

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC

So let's say I added another 0.01 BTC in my investment making it a total of 0.02 BTC. For the multiplier, I've used the actual site profit rather than the expected site profit.
(0.02 / 218) * (395 / 2) = 0.018 BTC

Question: I am earning 0.018 BTC in average? or per year?

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 06:11:31 AM

Thanks for the great explanation, even I understood. Wink

There is no data of volume on each coin, correct?

On yolodice you have a nice graphic that shows each investor return. Its ease to calculate estimated annual ROI for each coin.

F.e One of long ETH investors:

Invested 300 ETH
Profit 80.945 ETH

80.975/300 = 27% (profit per 6 months)

1.27 ^ 2 (continuous reinvestment - compound percentage) = 61 % (profit per 1 year)

Do the same for other coins and you will know where to invest. But remember about currency risk too. DOGE investment should be double or triple as profitable as bitcoin is to cover price change risk.

xxjumperxx

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on June 24, 2020, 06:04:55 AM

Well this is simple. Maybe I said it in a way that I complicated it too much.

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Now if there is 200 BTC currently investment by all investors and you invested 2 BTC than your earning will be:

2/200 * 5 = 0.05 BTC

But if there is not 200 BTC but only 20 BTC currently invested by all investors

2/20 * 5 = 0.5 BTC

And now to actual data on yolodice:

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC
ETH Currently invested - 2299.48040977 ETH = 58 BTC
LTC Currently invested - 9123.78625175 LTC = 41 BTC
DOGE Currently invested - 78263418.22757039 DOGE = 20 BTC

So gambling site total gambling volume on BTC has to be 10x bigger than DOGE gambling volume to give the same ROI. So as an investor willing ot optimize your investment you should compare gambling volume vs total investments on each coin and also calculate currency risk into it - doge is unpredictable while BTC is considered as safe-haven.

Thanks for the great explanation, even I understood. Wink

There is no data of volume on each coin, correct?

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Maus0728 on June 24, 2020, 03:58:07 AM

Can you explain this further? Willing to learn from you.

Well this is simple. Maybe I said it in a way that I complicated it too much.

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Now if there is 200 BTC currently investment by all investors and you invested 2 BTC than your earning will be:

2/200 * 5 = 0.05 BTC

But if there is not 200 BTC but only 20 BTC currently invested by all investors

2/20 * 5 = 0.5 BTC

And now to actual data on yolodice:

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC
ETH Currently invested - 2299.48040977 ETH = 58 BTC
LTC Currently invested - 9123.78625175 LTC = 41 BTC
DOGE Currently invested - 78263418.22757039 DOGE = 20 BTC

So gambling site total gambling volume on BTC has to be 10x bigger than DOGE gambling volume to give the same ROI. So as an investor willing ot optimize your investment you should compare gambling volume vs total investments on each coin and also calculate currency risk into it - doge is unpredictable while BTC is considered as safe-haven.

snipie

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Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 01:40:19 AM

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run Grin

Yesterday was a hilarious day, I believe some whales maybe are risking a good amount of BTC. I mean it is the first time when I see my profits jump from -0.00003xxxx to +0.00004xxxx BTC in a matter of seconds then turn red again and so on.
Today is the worst day in my BTC investment -0.00007497 BTC while my LTC seems fine. I will wait and see when my BTC will recover from this...

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Quote from: snipie on June 21, 2020, 05:54:35 AM

Yeah it is early to judge and after 1-2 months the picture will be better indeed

Interestingly my LTC investment is doing very well and my ROI is 0.4583% after 4 days which I find quite good. Meanwhile my BTC is still negative with - 500 satoshi.

Interestingly,,, most of my investments in any site in LTC has made more profit than any other coin. I think the Litecoin whales do not mind wagering it a lot and this is why in my mind it seems like they are more likely to lose. But at yolo I never tried this,,, maybe I should diversify even more.

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Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 03:59:26 AM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on June 24, 2020, 03:55:59 AM

Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 01:40:19 AM

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run Grin

You do not need to wait for a long time. As long as you can see the green, you can close the investment and start with another investment. You should play safely in the investment so you can make a profit. No matter if the profit is small, if you can make it more often, your profit will become bigger.

But yes, maybe the red will stay for a day before the green will come again, so you need to be patient.

Does that make sense though?
As soon as I hit a small profit pull out and reinvest?

You can since the dilution fee in Yolodice has been removed for quite some time.
If dilution fee has been added again, every investment that you will make will have a 2% dilution fee.

Quote

"Dilution fee" remains inactive until further notice.

xxjumperxx

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on June 24, 2020, 03:55:59 AM

Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 01:40:19 AM

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run Grin

You do not need to wait for a long time. As long as you can see the green, you can close the investment and start with another investment. You should play safely in the investment so you can make a profit. No matter if the profit is small, if you can make it more often, your profit will become bigger.

But yes, maybe the red will stay for a day before the green will come again, so you need to be patient.

Does that make sense though?
As soon as I hit a small profit pull out and reinvest?

Maus0728

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on June 24, 2020, 02:49:38 AM

My doge investment is also on red ... after 42 days. I was on profit +5% than I was negative 2%, than negartive 5% and now i'm negative 0.7%.

To conclude, there is nothing much difference for a month and 2 weeks of investment in DOGE and the span of investment is obviously not profitable for short term. They are right that it needs at least 1 year for your investment to mature otherwise you'll just be seeing a small random profit.

In the next few more weeks, I am planning to open another investment for BTC and invest it for at least 1 year, the funny thing is, it takes a couple of months to convince myself to invest in gambling site.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on June 24, 2020, 02:49:38 AM

Highest volume is on BTC. But income from this investment is based on 2 variables.
1 - gambling volume on investment coin
2- total bankroll size from all investors on investment coin

F.e If LTC volume is 2 times lower than BTC but bankroll is 4 times lower you are earning 2 times faster.

Can you explain this further? Willing to learn from you.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: xxjumperxx on June 24, 2020, 01:40:19 AM

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run Grin

You do not need to wait for a long time. As long as you can see the green, you can close the investment and start with another investment. You should play safely in the investment so you can make a profit. No matter if the profit is small, if you can make it more often, your profit will become bigger.

But yes, maybe the red will stay for a day before the green will come again, so you need to be patient.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Maus0728 on June 23, 2020, 10:47:34 PM

Damn! Still dumped on red.

My doge investment is also on red ... after 42 days. I was on profit +5% than I was negative 2%, than negartive 5% and now i'm negative 0.7%.

@OP I see you are updating OP once per day/few days. Thats way way too much. Once per month is enough. Once per week is optimal to keep us in this thread (not to let us forget about this thread). Once per day does not show anything about investment which require a lot of time to show it's potential (1% statistic advantage over gambler). 1 day time frame shows only random fluctuations. Couple goes in a whistle.

Quote from: Reid on June 23, 2020, 06:36:41 AM

Does LTC really have a better chance here?
I think bettors are using it more than BTC and Doge.
Maybe because of the fastest roll even with a lower bet?

I have been thinking to invest there too since there is not much movement with bitcoin investment.
What do you think?

Highest volume is on BTC. But income from this investment is based on 2 variables.
1 - gambling volume on investment coin
2- total bankroll size from all investors on investment coin

F.e If LTC volume is 2 times lower than BTC but bankroll is 4 times lower you are earning 2 times faster.

xxjumperxx

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I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run Grin

Reid

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Quote from: Sadlife on June 23, 2020, 08:09:56 AM

Never heard of Yolodice before or i've probably seen their campaign in services section just cant remember it.
I dont like investing in gambling sites myself because it will probably be use for betting purposes, especially if the games are good and high paying.

Do you mean the drive to use it for gambling (you) or Yolodice using it for different purpose?

It's different at Yolodce.
You could see a lot of examples now with Yatsan and snipie.
High chance of your investment going green.

Quote from: snipie on June 23, 2020, 06:51:54 AM

I don't have additional ideas honestly more than what the stats tell. I tried to invest in LTC as a test but since things are positive I kept my investment there and will see

I just know it will also rely on the number of bettors in the corresponding coin they use.
Then, how many investors there is since there's a percentage for each amount.

Maus0728

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Damn! Still dumped on red.

.WEEK 2
_{June 24, 2020}

Previous Weeks
[1] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54633510

Maus0728

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Quote from: Sadlife on June 23, 2020, 08:09:56 AM

Never heard of Yolodice before or i've probably seen their campaign in services section just cant remember it.
I dont like investing in gambling sites myself because it will probably be use for betting purposes, especially if the games are good and high paying.

It is one of the most reputable dice site in the history I think. Back in the days when I was still at a Member rank, I have always seen their signature campaign in services section and is always one of the most anticipated campaign for bitcoin members. It would be better to check their site especially in the statistics section.

[1] [CFNP] YOLOdice.com Signature Campaign - you can easily see the progress of YOLOdice by simply scanning their thread.
[2] Re: 🔶 YOLOdice.com 🔶 play&invest, now with .ONION address - this is their main gambling thread.

Sadlife

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Never heard of Yolodice before or i've probably seen their campaign in services section just cant remember it.
I dont like investing in gambling sites myself because it will probably be use for betting purposes, especially if the games are good and high paying.

snipie

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Quote from: Reid on June 23, 2020, 06:36:41 AM

Does LTC really have a better chance here?
I think bettors are using it more than BTC and Doge.
Maybe because of the fastest roll even with a lower bet?

I have been thinking to invest there too since there is not much movement with bitcoin investment.
What do you think?

https://yolodice.com/#stats/investor you can find here more information about each coins and the amount invested, number of people currently involved...
I don't have additional ideas honestly more than what the stats tell. I tried to invest in LTC as a test but since things are positive I kept my investment there and will see

Here is a pic

Yes peter0425, as I said in the beginning this topic is inspired by Yatsan one

peter0425

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Reid

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Quote from: snipie on June 23, 2020, 06:25:43 AM

Quote from: stadus on June 21, 2020, 06:48:33 AM

Lol, if OP loss his entire balance that means the site lose a lot of money, his investment is not even 1% of the total bankroll, so imagine how much the site lose if OP lose everything.

Yeah lol, losing all the investment means huge losses for everyone which needs more than a bunch of lucky whales. The max amount to bet is adjustable to prevent these situations tho.

Updated the table, my bitcoin investment is still red but better than the previous reddish days. My LTC is performing better + 0.00253876 in profit and + 0.5135 ROI in 6 days

Does LTC really have a better chance here?
I think bettors are using it more than BTC and Doge.
Maybe because of the fastest roll even with a lower bet?

I have been thinking to invest there too since there is not much movement with bitcoin investment.
What do you think?

Topic: Snipie's gambling investment test - page 20. (Read 6455 times)