Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way. At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it? So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.
Depends on whether you use single trades, daily close or vwa...
I would put it this way: A decisive volume above $50 pretty much eliminates the major crash scenario. Then we would either resume bulltrend or enter a consolidation around $50.
I would be very wary for anything below that. Yes, trades over $45 reduce the probability of crash scenario but I would not buy now. That we failed to take over the level 18 hours ago is definitely bearish.
2 hours ago it looked doomed, ready to crash through $40. But is now recovered to $43. Not too late to go short
IF rise to $45 and strong but not too hasty action there, we could avert the crash.
IF downward action in $41-$44, big probability for another flashcrash come weekend.
IF sudden rise to $50, bull trap (->crash)
IF immediate crash, well
No matter what, if the strong hands decide to sell, they do (->crash). There is absolutely not enough BTC in weak hands to warrant a classic bubble burst yet.