I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.
Maybe. The order book is beginning to flip around. The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down. The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up. It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate. Single digits is very realistic.
We rallied from $13 to $49, a +277% move in 2 months. It went parabolic in the end. So regardless if we believe in the long term or not, there is a significant (in may estimation: 70%) chance that we enter correction mode and do not make a new ATH in at least a month, probably 1-6 months.
The price has several target/support levels though, in descending order:
$35 first fibonacci retracement (13+.61*(49-13)) weak
$32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)
$31 half retracement (13+.5*(49-13)) weak
$30 round number weak-medium
$27 second fib. retracement (13+.61^2*(49-13)) medium-strong <- target/support
$26 50-dma (vol.weighted moving average) medium <- target
$25 round number weak-medium
$22 third fib. retracement (13+.61^3*(49-13)) medium-strong
$20 round number weak-medium
$15 high of 2012 medium-strong
$13 base strong
I see rather clear target in $26-$27 area. Support starts at $35 and intensifies in $32 and the target area. There is rather little support actually in the vast area between Pirate high $15 and $25. Maybe that is why many speculator aim to buy from there.
A safe bet would to start buyback already from $32. Other approaches are too risky if you plan on having BTC to sell also next year
