So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble? - page 2.

manfred

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Spain. It has had its price crash. Buy foreclosed real estate directly from the banks. They will accept offers below the asking price.

Spain also has the advantage that there are parts with a pleasant climate, coastal views and great beaches.

I would watch out for future taxes though. Spain recently required its tax cattle to declare all their assets (property, stocks, etc). For now there is no extra tax levied on those assets, but why do you think they are collecting the data now?

The question is not if Spain breaks up, but when. Catalonia is the first region, others will follow, which means real estate prices have potential to really fall.

manfred

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Depending what you want to buy, but Ukraine would have to be considered. China just bought 5% of total Ukrainian land, its about the size of Massachusetts.

http://www.channel4.com/news/china-ukraine-farmland-food-security-investment-overseas

theonewhowaskazu

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Quote from: superresistant on October 02, 2013, 02:16:16 AM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on October 02, 2013, 12:09:44 AM

Quote from: murraypaul on October 01, 2013, 06:51:46 AM

If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.

Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.

That's why ultimately, fiat money have no value.

Exactly. The way the government can prevent a correction is by effectively taking money from those that participate in the correction. If the natural correction would be downward, the government inflates money, devaluing the money of whoever would sell. If the natural correction would be upward, the government taxes the land, devaluing the investment of whoever would buy. So much for free market.

It is for this reason that I believe that naturally a value added tax would actually be one of the more fair forms of taxation, depending on the way it is implemented. Most other forms of taxation serve to force the public into a situation that isn't a natural market condition. VAT, or at least, the concept behind it, is somewhat neutral in that respect.

superresistant

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Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on October 02, 2013, 12:09:44 AM

Quote from: murraypaul on October 01, 2013, 06:51:46 AM

If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.

Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.

That's why ultimately, fiat money have no value.

theonewhowaskazu

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Quote from: murraypaul on October 01, 2013, 06:51:46 AM

If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.

Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.

murraypaul

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Quote from: jubalix on October 01, 2013, 04:15:37 AM

well no, not in Australia,

Not yet.
But Australian houses are historically overvalued, and indeed are starting to fall.

Indeed they are dropping back to the long term trend, and that drop will overshoot, as it always does.

If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.

superresistant

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I'll go to Spain soon. I saw a documentary saying that some price went down to 60% of the value.

jubalix

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Quote from: murraypaul on September 30, 2013, 05:49:37 PM

Quote from: jubalix on September 30, 2013, 02:17:54 PM

but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.

If they bought with their own money, yes.
But another characteristic of a bubble is that past a certain point it becomes widely known, and everyone starts jumping in.
And some of them don't have enough capital of their own, so they borrow it.
And some don't have enough income to pay the full mortgage cost, so you get houses bought on interest-only mortgages, or houses bought as buy-to-let.
When the interest rates get too high, or the saturation of rental properties means that you can't keep the property fully occupied, then you find you can't make the mortgage payments, and have to sell at a loss.

well no, not in Australia,

when the interest rates get to high, the gov makes the banks find other arrangements. Beyond a small percentage the gov will not allow/can not survive wide scale repossessions.

then there is negative gearing, and

taxation that feeds through in to centrelink/social services the guarantees the bottom part of the market and support st he rest

Their is no capital gains tax on your family house when you sell

It is far more costly to have people on the street and an empt house en masse..

Taras

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Please do not PM me loan requests!

Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 27, 2013, 05:13:37 PM

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This.

murraypaul

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Quote from: jubalix on September 30, 2013, 02:17:54 PM

but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.

If they bought with their own money, yes.
But another characteristic of a bubble is that past a certain point it becomes widely known, and everyone starts jumping in.
And some of them don't have enough capital of their own, so they borrow it.
And some don't have enough income to pay the full mortgage cost, so you get houses bought on interest-only mortgages, or houses bought as buy-to-let.
When the interest rates get too high, or the saturation of rental properties means that you can't keep the property fully occupied, then you find you can't make the mortgage payments, and have to sell at a loss.

herzmeister

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Quote from: dragonkid on September 30, 2013, 02:20:52 PM

I think the north pole don't have a real estate bubble. I am not sure if Germany have any land in the north pole.

No, but at the South Pole, apparently. Shocked

dragonkid

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Quote from: herzmeister on September 19, 2013, 09:22:53 AM

So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?

Planning to buy some property to live on but I'm not sure if I should do this in my own country (Germany).

I think the north pole don't have a real estate bubble. I am not sure if Germany have any land in the north pole.

jubalix

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Quote from: murraypaul on September 29, 2013, 05:35:53 PM

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on September 29, 2013, 02:01:35 PM

I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.

You've answered your own question.
Consumables don't form bubbles (except in times of hoarding), because they are consumed, not resold.
A bubble occurs when an asset is bought, not for its inherent value or utility, but purely for the belief that it can later be resold at a profit to another buyer.
Eventually the market runs out of buyers at the ultimate elevated price, and the bubble bursts.

but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.

murraypaul

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Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on September 29, 2013, 02:01:35 PM

I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.

You've answered your own question.
Consumables don't form bubbles (except in times of hoarding), because they are consumed, not resold.
A bubble occurs when an asset is bought, not for its inherent value or utility, but purely for the belief that it can later be resold at a profit to another buyer.
Eventually the market runs out of buyers at the ultimate elevated price, and the bubble bursts.

theonewhowaskazu

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I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.

jubalix

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It goes from bad to worse in Australia.

Sydney just going up again, the most it ever fell was about 1-2% per year if that, then goes up 10% a year, 5% a year....it just never stops

edmundedgar

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Quote from: Endgame on September 24, 2013, 07:09:55 AM

There is some nice waterfront places going for cheap at fukushima.

Oddly although property across whole of Fukushima prefecture, like the rest of rural Japan, has been on a steady downward slide for the last 20 years as people move to the cities:
http://land.color-me.jp/LandMakers/index/7/

...if you look at the towns that got part-evacuated the land prices seem to have perked up a touch since the accident.
http://land.color-me.jp/LandMakers/City/07212/

Maybe jobs and industry related to the clean-up?

01BTC10

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Antarctica

xxjs

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Quote from: Keldel on September 24, 2013, 03:48:01 PM

Quote from: xxjs on September 24, 2013, 08:07:12 AM

I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.

Are you sure the bubble in Spain has already burst? If so, why are the insolvent banks still there?

The banks have not cleared the losses, which is a huge problem, but the prices are down.

Buffer Overflow

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Quote from: Keldel on September 24, 2013, 03:48:01 PM

Quote from: xxjs on September 24, 2013, 08:07:12 AM

I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.

Are you sure the bubble in Spain has already burst? If so, why are the insolvent banks still there?

Bailed out.

Spain is bankrupt. That's why they didn't get the 2020 olympics.

Topic: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble? - page 2. (Read 4708 times)