Topic: So, technical analysts, where are you now? (Read 1273 times)

As predicted by our 2$ box chart, BTC found resistance at 228:




Did not manage to short it because of the BFX issues. I am still traped there so until I go I am looking at BFX charts too.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd , 2 or 4h

I think we will go up to 230-235 and then fall back in the 202-205 area. Then a W formation and a breakout above 235.

IMO don't try to catch a falling knife, especially as the XT vs Core drama is not over.

That said, a buy from 125 down to 50 is a very good buy because there will be almost certainly a bounce at least to 150. Especially if the drama is over (which of course will make it almost impossible to fall below 100$ and probably will send us above 240s).

If the drama is over, above 235 is a certain buy.

With or without drama, all in above 285.

Just don't be greedy to trade the 160-235 chop. Wait patiently for better opportunity.

Good choice is a short between 228-232 with a stop at 234.

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.

I am not predicting the direction - I know though the importance of the 300$ barrier.
It is 4th time we retest it this year. IMO there is no room for another failure. Whatever that means..


BTW, below 50$ the project should be considered dead.

The Chinese are getting in the mood to short everything. Once they realize they make more money with their money by putting up as margin shorting than buying becomes the new fad. You think they won't short Bitcoin too?

All assets other than the dollar are going be toasted by shorting over the next months as we head into the contagion that has been assured by the rising interest rates confirmed by the Fed leak a this past week.

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

Let me make this clear: Tripple bottom break AND bullish trend are INCOMPATIBLE!!!

Triple top/bottom break is very strong signal, I doubt 275 support will hold.

Sell signal:



But on support line. Be careful anyway you trade..

BTC triple bottom at 284$. If it holds extremely bullish. If it breaks (280$) very strong sell signal.

Resistance 288-292 & 300-304$. Bullish trend broken at 260$.

Gold target 500$. Worst case scenario 300$.
If BTC decouples it will go at least 2000$.
If not targets are about 100$ and 50$ respectively.

Gold and BTC were moving in the past both in parallel and anti parallel. Interesting to see where this will go!

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

Listen i'm not trying to argue with you, but if I don't see physical proof of you using your ta to make money, not some thread prediction, not your word, not your subscribers: that is all just smoke and mirrors.  If you want you can post your trade log without gaps and we can see you are legit.  If not than fine, but unless you have proof, its all smoke and mirrors.  

Listen i'm not trying to argue with you, but if I don't see physical proof of you using your ta to make money, not some thread prediction, not your word, not your subscribers: that is all just smoke and mirrors.  If you want you can post your trade log without gaps and we can see you are legit.  If not than fine, but unless you have proof, its all smoke and mirrors.  

Ask my subscribers...

LOL where is the proof of your great TA trades?  You told me lol, show proof.  
Buying 500 btc in 2011 doesn't make you a good ta trader either lol.  
Thanks for the proof of your recent ta trades.  

LOL where is the proof of your great TA trades?  You told me lol, show proof.  
Buying 500 btc in 2011 doesn't make you a good ta trader either lol.  
Thanks for the proof of your recent ta trades.  

Lol! My trades?

50eu invested in NXT as early adopter - at peak worthing 3M usd.

Bought 500btc at 2011, while you were playing Second Life.

Just told you I sold the top 310.

Apart from that, my interpretations may be right or wrong but supply & demand ARE the price - the price IS reflecting Supply & Demand.

Are you so freakin idiot?

Lol! My trades?

50eu invested in NXT as early adopter - at peak worthing 3M usd.

Bought 500btc at 2011, while you were playing Second Life.

Just told you I sold the top 310.

Apart from that, my interpretations may be right or wrong but supply & demand ARE the price - the price IS reflecting Supply & Demand.

Are you so freakin idiot?

Whatever scammer, please post your trades, not some past dated chart.  I'm not the one making claims to be a btc price guru, that is you. 

Another idiot! Must be my lucky day.

EVERYTHING WITH A PRICE IS GOVERNED BY SUPPLY & DEMAND!

Capish idiot?

@OP
I'm still here.  


What you fail to understand is that TA is independent of what market is being analyzed. If there is a market to trade between two assets, there is technical data that can be analyzed to determine real demand and momentum of those assets. Bitcoin is no different in this respect.

That is because the people on here that claim they are using technical analysis just take charts and draw random lines to match a theory to sound like they know wtf they are doing, or they give such absurd ranges (170-330 price target!) so they can't be wrong.
In theory why would TA apply to btc?  None of the theories were created about btc.  Would you follow a recipe a recipe for brownies while making cookies? 

Some of the people aren't full of shit, but 90 percent of the self proclaimed btc analyst are.

@OP
I'm still here.  


What you fail to understand is that TA is independent of what market is being analyzed. If there is a market to trade between two assets, there is technical data that can be analyzed to determine real demand and momentum of those assets. Bitcoin is no different in this respect.

That is because the people on here that claim they are using technical analysis just take charts and draw random lines to match a theory to sound like they know wtf they are doing, or they give such absurd ranges (170-330 price target!) so they can't be wrong.
In theory why would TA apply to btc?  None of the theories were created about btc.  Would you follow a recipe a recipe for brownies while making cookies? 

Some of the people aren't full of shit, but 90 percent of the self proclaimed btc analyst are.

Regardless of whatever fibonacci lines, retracement levels, bottoms, targets, supports, breakthrough rates, crystal spheres, or other tech analysis mumbo jumbo had predicted, surely most of them will not have foreseen a 20% drop in one week, of which 10% in the last couple of days.

When we honestly look at posts from tech analysts, we can see most of the time they try to come up with some explanation of the past and rarely (as in, not more than sheer chance) did they actually predict the future.

Statistically, basing your buying/hodling/selling strategy on the flip of a coin or the throw of a dice, would have delivered as least as good results as using TA.
So can we now either stop with the technical analysis nonsense, or agree it's as good as any wild guess?

Or are there still people who still believe in it?