True, it looks like many, if not most traders didn't see the recent violent drop coming, me included. That said, plenty of them were predicting bearish continuation scenarios.
Anyway, all that said, why don't you take a look at the results of dnaleor's and Miz4r's trading game. Almost all of the participants beat a "BTC hodl" strategy, and quite a few of them a pure "all in USD" strategy.
So much for your 'coin flip' hypothesis.
Topic: So, technical analysts, where are you now? - page 2. (Read 1277 times)
Focusing on only one aspect is idiotic in 99% of cases. There is more than just technical analysis, just as there is more than just fundamental analysis.
You have a "free" money network.
Free to use or not ...
More fast than a Bank ...
More Secure than CASH or Credit Card ...
With no chargeback.
Don't get me wrong, I believe in Bitcoin all right. I'm 100% pro-Bitcoin, long time hodler, and I think fiat money is a disaster waiting to happen.Free to use or not ...
More fast than a Bank ...
More Secure than CASH or Credit Card ...
With no chargeback.
But we can't deny Bitcoin is extremely volatile, and any technical analysts trying to make sense of this, fail miserably, more often than not. Yet they keep posting their bullshit fibonacci retracement support level graphs -- I'm wondering to what extent they believe what they're doing.
You have a "free" money network.
Free to use or not ...
More fast than a Bank ...
More Secure than CASH or Credit Card ...
With no chargeback.
Free to use or not ...
More fast than a Bank ...
More Secure than CASH or Credit Card ...
With no chargeback.
Regardless of whatever fibonacci lines, retracement levels, bottoms, targets, supports, breakthrough rates, crystal spheres, or other tech analysis mumbo jumbo had predicted, surely most of them will not have foreseen a 20% drop in one week, of which 10% in the last couple of days.
When we honestly look at posts from tech analysts, we can see most of the time they try to come up with some explanation of the past and rarely (as in, not more than sheer chance) did they actually predict the future.
Statistically, basing your buying/hodling/selling strategy on the flip of a coin or the throw of a dice, would have delivered as least as good results as using TA.
So can we now either stop with the technical analysis nonsense, or agree it's as good as any wild guess?
Or are there still people who still believe in it?
When we honestly look at posts from tech analysts, we can see most of the time they try to come up with some explanation of the past and rarely (as in, not more than sheer chance) did they actually predict the future.
Statistically, basing your buying/hodling/selling strategy on the flip of a coin or the throw of a dice, would have delivered as least as good results as using TA.
So can we now either stop with the technical analysis nonsense, or agree it's as good as any wild guess?
Or are there still people who still believe in it?
Jump to: