Topic: Some Bearish Observations. - page 4. (Read 4646 times)
I find the similarity with the first days of February interesting.
You're almost as good as Veronica 
It seems to me that all of you, guys, are not aware of this: "Total sum of active swaps"=!"Total sum of active leveraged positions". You can take the swap, keep it and not use it in a trade, and THERE ARE people who actually doing so (for example, they find it profitable to keep cheap swap for the long time being ready to trade when the time comes, instead of taking expensive swap at the time of trade). There are 22,8 MUsd active swaps on bitfinex now, which is equal to 35 kBTC at current price, and 4400 active BTC swaps, which is 8 times less. But indicator here https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats shows us that long positions are only about less then twice of short positions.
If I understood better about bitfinex, I would bet that it would go higher (in the up coming weeks).
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
Market is feeling rather heavy. That is why I exited my position at small loss.....for the nth time in the past phucking week, thus largely devouring the profits I made on the way up (again, less than half of what I could have made if I wasn't a shit trader)
I very much agree with your position on leveraged longs. ATH in longs, at this price level and movement, and considering (from my amateur observation of BFX and Stamp on Wisdom) much of this rise on Stamp was push up by BFX market buys....makes me nervous. I still see some people mentioning "short squeeze" here and there. I think the shorts have been squeezed. And if the bullish momentum doesn't start soon, these longs risk feeling the squeeze. (And the books are scary thin for the amount of longs too)
Hmm... time to sell?
The price is tanking a little, if it falls it will go not below than 600, and then probably next weekend we will have the 700s
Houbi and Stamp lead. So Bitfinex being over extended is not a market mover ,IMO.
Plus I still can't wrap my head around the fact that Finex never has less than 15 million in longs at crazy interest rates. It has never made sense to me.
So you will have noticed how Bitfinex seemed to want to take off earlier, Huobi seemed to follow, but how Bistamp (no leverage and 100% real volume) stayed put?
Bitfinex do also have a system in place for routing trades through Bitstamp.....so pretty weird how they never bit into Bitstamps Ask wall, but instead let traders ramp up the price on their own thin books.......but then, Bitfinex are crooks, and that was probably just a spot of friendly exchange insider short stop loss farming.
15K BTC held in leveraged long positions undeniably has an effect on the market, no matter what exchange it is on so long as lines of inter exchange arbitrage are open to someone,
If I understood better about bitfinex, I would bet that it would go higher (in the up coming weeks).
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
Market is feeling rather heavy. That is why I exited my position at small loss.....for the nth time in the past phucking week, thus largely devouring the profits I made on the way up (again, less than half of what I could have made if I wasn't a shit trader)
Houbi and Stamp lead. So Bitfinex being over extended is not a market mover ,IMO.
Plus I still can't wrap my head around the fact that Finex never has less than 15 million in longs at crazy interest rates. It has never made sense to me.
If I understood better about bitfinex, I would bet that it would go higher (in the up coming weeks).
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
Market is feeling rather heavy. That is why I exited my position at small loss.....for the nth time in the past phucking week, thus largely devouring the profits I made on the way up (again, less than half of what I could have made if I wasn't a shit trader)
If I understood better about bitfinex, I would bet that it would go higher (in the up coming weeks).
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
You do bring some legit observations about the bearish issue (and I did expect 700 for this week already since it hit 680 last week).
Its barely getting 650. Lets see what happens mid to end week.
I am out of my Bitcoin position for now, although I am not sure that I would go as far as to declare myself intermediate bearish as of yet. However, here are some observations that I have made.
The first is well documented. It is the maxed out state of Bitfinex leveraged longs. As can be seen, we hit an ATH at around 24 million USD being loaned out to leveraged longs. At the start of the ramp up, as you can see, their was around 16 million USD on loan to leveraged Bitcoin traders on Bitfinex. An increase of around 8 million, accounts for some 15K BTC being held in long positions, whilst paying fairly high rates of interest out on a daily basis. We can see that since the $683 top on June 2nd, the level of USD swaps as generally continued to rise, although the BTC price has not.
The screenshot below shows the current downward resistance trendline of the 'bullish' pennant formation we are currently in:
I recommend that you all get over to Bitcoinwisdom (or indeed Trading view, no matter) and draw this line on the chart for yourselves. Once you have done that zoom out the chart a bit and see what other points it connects with.
Once you have done that, you will see that this line is a perfect fit with the Nov 30th, and the Dec 4th ATHs!
So. We have a maxed out leveraged situation on Bitfinex, the maxing out of which has no doubt greatly contributed to the recent Bitcoin ramp (the increase accounts for ~15K BTC, not of volume, but being held in long positions), and has also continued to increase for the past week (up until today), although the Bitcoin price has decreased and we have pennant downtrend that just happens to also be a tangent to both points of the double top at the end of 2013!
Hmmm....
Even if there is still big money sitting on sidelines looking to take large Bitcoin positions at this point in time, they will take one look at this leveraged long situation and rubbing their hands with glee at thought of how much they could lower their entry points into the market by squeezing these longs who must fold their hands if the market does not rise and even more so if the market starts turning against them. Furthermore, no large quantity of capital is going to enter the market at these prices when their is so much margin trade hanging around looking to cash out for profits. After all, that is what margin traders do. Cash out, as opposed to buying a big bunch of an asset, storing it away and forgetting about it.
The first is well documented. It is the maxed out state of Bitfinex leveraged longs. As can be seen, we hit an ATH at around 24 million USD being loaned out to leveraged longs. At the start of the ramp up, as you can see, their was around 16 million USD on loan to leveraged Bitcoin traders on Bitfinex. An increase of around 8 million, accounts for some 15K BTC being held in long positions, whilst paying fairly high rates of interest out on a daily basis. We can see that since the $683 top on June 2nd, the level of USD swaps as generally continued to rise, although the BTC price has not.
The screenshot below shows the current downward resistance trendline of the 'bullish' pennant formation we are currently in:
I recommend that you all get over to Bitcoinwisdom (or indeed Trading view, no matter) and draw this line on the chart for yourselves. Once you have done that zoom out the chart a bit and see what other points it connects with.
Once you have done that, you will see that this line is a perfect fit with the Nov 30th, and the Dec 4th ATHs!
So. We have a maxed out leveraged situation on Bitfinex, the maxing out of which has no doubt greatly contributed to the recent Bitcoin ramp (the increase accounts for ~15K BTC, not of volume, but being held in long positions), and has also continued to increase for the past week (up until today), although the Bitcoin price has decreased and we have pennant downtrend that just happens to also be a tangent to both points of the double top at the end of 2013!
Hmmm....
Even if there is still big money sitting on sidelines looking to take large Bitcoin positions at this point in time, they will take one look at this leveraged long situation and rubbing their hands with glee at thought of how much they could lower their entry points into the market by squeezing these longs who must fold their hands if the market does not rise and even more so if the market starts turning against them. Furthermore, no large quantity of capital is going to enter the market at these prices when their is so much margin trade hanging around looking to cash out for profits. After all, that is what margin traders do. Cash out, as opposed to buying a big bunch of an asset, storing it away and forgetting about it.
Jump to: