Someone just fired up some serious hashing power. - page 2.

Littleshop

legendary

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Quote from: MoonShadow on June 15, 2011, 07:23:12 PM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 15, 2011, 06:30:56 PM

What a bunch of n00bs.

Seriously, though...

You have to ignore those figures for at least 24 hours after a reset. It's an easy mistake to make, I'll admit. I wondered what the heck was going on the first time I saw it -- but I assumed something was messed up.

I'm not a noob, and I checked for a disfunctional statistic. I'm used to it being off for quite a while after a difficulty adjustment, but as I was watching it, the stats were rising instead of adjusting. And I still waited for four hours to mention it because I wasn't sure.

You need to wait longer.

That being said, the price is holding steady. I think everything will be ok.

befuddled

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

Quote

So you are assuming that the hashing power doubles every retarget, which would happen every week, for the next nine months.

No, I'm not. In my message to which you replied, I said: "if hash rate keeps outstripping difficulty adjustments such that blocks are generated at 12/hour instead of 6/hour, then...".

computerparts

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

A little birdie told me there's more coming. Expect another difficulty change in 5 days or so. Enjoy the ride with those inefficient multi gpu rigs Cheesy

MoonShadow

legendary

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Quote from: befuddled on June 15, 2011, 09:19:24 PM

Quote

11 months early? How did you get there?

Yeah, maybe I screwed up the arithmetic.

210000 - 131,159 = 78841 blocks away

78841 / (12 blocks/hour) = 6570 hours away = 273.75 days

273.75 days / (365.25 days/year) = 0.74949 years

0.74949 years * 12 months/year = 8.99 months.

So 9 months.

So you are assuming that the hashing power doubles every retarget, which would happen every week, for the next nine months.

I see.

Care for an over/under bet on that?

befuddled

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

Quote

11 months early? How did you get there?

Yeah, maybe I screwed up the arithmetic.

210000 - 131,159 = 78841 blocks away

78841 / (12 blocks/hour) = 6570 hours away = 273.75 days

273.75 days / (365.25 days/year) = 0.74949 years

0.74949 years * 12 months/year = 8.99 months.

So 9 months.

rezin777

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: anodyne on June 15, 2011, 08:44:25 PM

Came to think of something else, as I've already brought up deviations in stats... I noticed the stats on bitcoinwatch go down to less than 3 blocks/hour before retarget, and as I remember it the network graph followed. That did also look weird, and did not seem to have much to do with the actual block generation rate.

Did you notice that the block count had stopped on bitcoin watch prior to the difficulty change? I would imagine that was affecting the other stats. Some time around the difficulty change it was corrected or started counting again.

_s3v3n_

member

Activity: 108

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Actually that "Other" are my 300 servers in the office, just switched from -bigadv folding to mining so no worries people. All I need is 40000 BTC and I will turn them off.

Grin

(Hope no one believes me here)

ROFL!!

anodyne

full member

Activity: 518

Merit: 100

Came to think of something else, as I've already brought up deviations in stats... I noticed the stats on bitcoinwatch go down to less than 3 blocks/hour before retarget, and as I remember it the network graph followed. That did also look weird, and did not seem to have much to do with the actual block generation rate.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1007

Quote from: befuddled on June 15, 2011, 07:49:10 PM

Factoid: if hash rate keeps outstripping difficulty adjustments such that blocks are generated at 12/hour instead of 6/hour, then the 210000th block happens sooner than otherwise projected, 9 months from now.

11 months early? How did you get there?

[Coins!]

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: befuddled on June 15, 2011, 07:49:10 PM

Factoid: if hash rate keeps outstripping difficulty adjustments such that blocks are generated at 12/hour instead of 6/hour, then the 210000th block happens sooner than otherwise projected, 9 months from now.

I kind of welcome it because the lower rate of bitcoin generation will create a smaller rate at which BTC are dumped for cash by those who mine to cash out immediately. More pressure for BTC appreciation. I don't expect it will unless more than one large scale FPGA/ASIC outfit comes in. It was ArtForz or someone associated with one such I recall said they would only scale up to no more than 1/2 of total hash rate because beyond that they are competing with themselves and experience diminishing returns. If more than one comes in, then all bets are off. They could squeeze the GPU miners down to nothing.

So in 9 months, only 25 coins are generated per block rather than 50, at some previously forecasted rate?

But with the doubling of miners and network hashing power recently, that will be more like 3-4 more months?

This bitcoin business is very interesting : ) Higher difficulties + lower block values rapidly changing the market.

befuddled

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

Factoid: if hash rate keeps outstripping difficulty adjustments such that blocks are generated at 12/hour instead of 6/hour, then the 210000th block happens sooner than otherwise projected, 9 months from now.

I kind of welcome it because the lower rate of bitcoin generation will create a smaller rate at which BTC are dumped for cash by those who mine to cash out immediately. More pressure for BTC appreciation. I don't expect it will unless more than one large scale FPGA/ASIC outfit comes in. It was ArtForz or someone associated with one such I recall said they would only scale up to no more than 1/2 of total hash rate because beyond that they are competing with themselves and experience diminishing returns. If more than one comes in, then all bets are off. They could squeeze the GPU miners down to nothing.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1007

Quote from: befuddled on June 15, 2011, 07:10:56 PM

Quote

The stats are, as mentioned, off the mark after retarget.

Well, at the time of this posting, blockexplorer.com shows 12 blocks in the last hour. Isn't the target rate 6 per hour? My simple mind wants to infer that the hash rate is twice what it was when the difficulty adjustment was computed. Not something that can merely be the artifact of a bad estimation technique, is it?

The target rate is, indeed, 6 per hour. The difficulty adjustment would have dropped that rate down very close to 6 if not for a sudden near doubling of the hashing capability of the network.

MoonShadow

legendary

Activity: 1708

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Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 15, 2011, 06:30:56 PM

What a bunch of n00bs.

Seriously, though...

You have to ignore those figures for at least 24 hours after a reset. It's an easy mistake to make, I'll admit. I wondered what the heck was going on the first time I saw it -- but I assumed something was messed up.

I'm not a noob, and I checked for a disfunctional statistic. I'm used to it being off for quite a while after a difficulty adjustment, but as I was watching it, the stats were rising instead of adjusting. And I still waited for four hours to mention it because I wasn't sure.

nebiki

sr. member

Activity: 742

Merit: 250

wow. toss a coin 20 times. you expect 10 heads and 10 tails. but why did you get 15 heads? oh no, the world is coming to an end.

carbonc

member

Activity: 126

Merit: 60

Someone at the CIA decided he could throw some hashing power into his/her pocket. Idle CPU time. heh.

befuddled

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

Quote

The stats are, as mentioned, off the mark after retarget.

Well, at the time of this posting, blockexplorer.com shows 12 blocks in the last hour. Isn't the target rate 6 per hour? My simple mind wants to infer that the hash rate is twice what it was when the difficulty adjustment was computed. Not something that can merely be the artifact of a bad estimation technique, is it?

Capitan

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 15, 2011, 06:30:56 PM

What a bunch of n00bs.

Seriously, though...

You have to ignore those figures for at least 24 hours after a reset. It's an easy mistake to make, I'll admit. I wondered what the heck was going on the first time I saw it -- but I assumed something was messed up.

There should be a sticky on the topic of total hashing power, difficulty, and how they are calculated, and how the stats are skewed shortly after difficulty changes.

freequant

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 500

Quote from: TheMoneyStorm on June 15, 2011, 06:33:44 PM

They'll level out over the next 24-36 hrs, Relax people

I would prefere to believe your soothing words.
But I am sorry to tell you you are wrong.

Look at blockexplorer.
12+ block per hour (for instance block 131117 to 131128 were all found between 2011-06-15 21:00:00 and 22:00:00).
And all these blocks were generated at difficulty 876954

There really is at least twice as much hashing power now than before the difficulty increase, and the network is minting twice as many bitcoins an hours as expected.

Whoever jumped in doesn't mind being noticed.
At any rate, that's a very strange strategy.
Whether you want to take over the block chain to control the currency, or make tons of money by forerunning everybody, you'd better get in progressively if you don't want to frighten everyone and end up with full control over a left over currency.

The only reasons I can see are :
- this new joiner wants to ruin bitcoin, so the fact of being noticed and make people panic is part of the plan.
- this is an agressive IPO from a government or a financial institution who wants to be able to claim ownership of bitcoin at a later stage (hence must have some evidence that it is indeed controlling half of the computationnal power).
- the guy is greedy to the point where he doesn't care being noticed so long as he makes more money.

Ruxum

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

Even if the stats are off for the difficulty change, it is an interesting topic to discuss. What are the effects if large farms come online. From gov't.? Private companies? Wall street? hackers?

The effects of each should be discussed for security reasons.

anodyne

full member

Activity: 518

Merit: 100

There was an address that went up and started mining @45GH on Eligius though: http://eligius.st/~artefact2/eu/1E8jPYas4iJGTrpwfgRgigjRmjGFNqtcuF

It's quite impressive.

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