Speculating with Tom Lee - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: exstasie on October 21, 2019, 02:31:19 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 20, 2019, 09:25:27 PM

Tom Lee, the founder financial analytics boutique Fundstrat, has made a shocking statement about crypto that completely contradicts his earlier prediction.

The Bitcoin permabull has agreed with "an unpopular opinion" about how the cryptocurrency industry is slowly bleeding to death after exchanges and early adopters raked in huge profits during the crypto craze.

He didn't agree, he said "it's possible." Big difference. Of course it's possible.

I personally think Bitcoin is ultra hard money. It has the best monetary properties of any asset on Earth so far, implying much more upside. At the end of the day though, large scale adoption of any form of money requires people putting their confidence/faith in it. This is a social phenomenon and there's no guarantee the best form of money will win. It's still a binary outcome for me: BTC is either headed to the millions or towards $0.

It's nice to see Tom Lee feeling so bearish though. He's a contrarian indicator.

I am beginning to notice that he is a contrarian indicator not because he is a bad trader, but because he be buying when he is bearish and he sells when he is bullish. Forum cave trolls laugh at him, however, he might already be laughing at us since 2017.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 20, 2019, 09:25:27 PM

The Bitcoin permabull has agreed with "an unpopular opinion" about how the cryptocurrency industry is slowly bleeding to death after exchanges and early adopters raked in huge profits during the crypto craze. Lee says that it possibly could be the case.

That's probably the most bearish thing I've ever heard from Tom Lee. Could this be a bottom signal? Shocked

What happened to $40k by end of year?! https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-to-40k-in-the-next-few-months-says-tom-lee/

1Referee

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 20, 2019, 09:25:27 PM

I speculate that Tom Lee is aware of this. I speculate that Tom Lee is buying.

I hope for him that your speculations are wrong. Tom Lee's model of analyzing this whole market is flawed to its core, so if he put any money where his mouth was/is, he is probably close to broke, or at least, those who entrusted their funds to him lost a lot of money.

One would expect him to quit after being wrong so many times, but it seems that he is waiting for a new bull run to initiate so that there are fresh suckers to fall victim to his flawed understanding of the crypto market. People did better countering his predictions than to follow them, lol. Fundstrat has become Fundrat.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 20, 2019, 09:25:27 PM

Tom Lee, the founder financial analytics boutique Fundstrat, has made a shocking statement about crypto that completely contradicts his earlier prediction.

The Bitcoin permabull has agreed with "an unpopular opinion" about how the cryptocurrency industry is slowly bleeding to death after exchanges and early adopters raked in huge profits during the crypto craze.

He didn't agree, he said "it's possible." Big difference. Of course it's possible.

I personally think Bitcoin is ultra hard money. It has the best monetary properties of any asset on Earth so far, implying much more upside. At the end of the day though, large scale adoption of any form of money requires people putting their confidence/faith in it. This is a social phenomenon and there's no guarantee the best form of money will win. It's still a binary outcome for me: BTC is either headed to the millions or towards $0.

It's nice to see Tom Lee feeling so bearish though. He's a contrarian indicator.

bbc.reporter

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The cryptospace is as part of the internet as the internet is part of our society, I reckon. Similar to good internet stocks' lows after the dump, another group of people became rich because they bought. I speculate that Tom Lee is aware of this. I speculate that Tom Lee is buying.

Tom Lee, the founder financial analytics boutique Fundstrat, has made a shocking statement about crypto that completely contradicts his earlier prediction.

The Bitcoin permabull has agreed with "an unpopular opinion" about how the cryptocurrency industry is slowly bleeding to death after exchanges and early adopters raked in huge profits during the crypto craze. Lee says that it possibly could be the case.

Source https://u.today/its-possible-that-crypto-industry-is-slowly-bleeding-to-death-says-fundstrats-boss-tom-lee

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Quote from: exstasie on October 15, 2019, 02:11:29 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 14, 2019, 10:12:57 PM

Last month, Tom Lee has said that bitcoin tends to follow the S&P500. This news article might be good news for him and us hehehe.

The Federal Reserve will begin buying $60b of treasury bills every month. This will pump more money in the American economy to spend and invest which will also have a positive effect on the S&P500.

The markets reacted nicely; big gap up on the SPX. I expect this to encourage continued sideways/upward momentum in equities.

Tom is right too, what's good for stocks is good for Bitcoin. Less uncertainty in the economy means riskier investments (like BTC) are more attractive and justifiable.

if the price of Bitcoin following the S&P500 is indeed really terrible, why? if you see the price of the S&P500 in 2003 and 2009 falling very far,
you can see it on the google index S&P500, and if that happens in Bitcoin,
I don't know whether people's opinions will give a negative or people will come out, for sure this will interesting

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 14, 2019, 10:12:57 PM

Last month, Tom Lee has said that bitcoin tends to follow the S&P500. This news article might be good news for him and us hehehe.

The Federal Reserve will begin buying $60b of treasury bills every month. This will pump more money in the American economy to spend and invest which will also have a positive effect on the S&P500.

The markets reacted nicely; big gap up on the SPX. I expect this to encourage continued sideways/upward momentum in equities.

Tom is right too, what's good for stocks is good for Bitcoin. Less uncertainty in the economy means riskier investments (like BTC) are more attractive and justifiable.

bbc.reporter

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Last month, Tom Lee has said that bitcoin tends to follow the S&P500. This news article might be good news for him and us hehehe.

The Federal Reserve will begin buying $60b of treasury bills every month. This will pump more money in the American economy to spend and invest which will also have a positive effect on the S&P500.

The New York Fed’s open markets desk will “purchase Treasury bills at an initial pace of approximately $60 billion per month, starting with the period from mid-October to mid-November,” according to a statement. The Fed said purchases of Treasury bills will extend “at least into the second quarter of next year,” leaving open the possibility of a change in the pace and duration of purchases.

Source https://pbn.com/fed-to-start-buying-60b-of-treasury-bills-a-month-from-oct-15/

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 08, 2019, 02:31:37 AM

Quote from: Torque on October 07, 2019, 09:11:59 PM

The officially sanctioned, SEC-approved Bitcoin futures market says otherwise. And Tom Lee knows this.

So why the bullshit, Tom?

Easy game. Whale-cumulators placing their bids for as low as they can, and FUD all they can to cause a panic for the plebs.

Don't listen, and HODL. Cool

Come to think of it, Tom was screaming "buy" all through 2018 before the crash to $3000. Maybe he was selling us his bags at the time. You can never trust these Wall Street types.

So yeah, he's probably FUD'ing the market to buy in.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Torque on October 07, 2019, 09:11:59 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 04, 2019, 11:03:08 PM

Another barrier preventing institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency space is a lack of infrastructure, Lee says. However, Lee believes this is due to the lack of regulatory protection. "There’s not enough legal and regulatory protection for bitcoin in the U.S. to prevent a White House executive order banning bitcoin, like nothing today would prevent bitcoin from being outlawed in the U.S."

The officially sanctioned, SEC-approved Bitcoin futures market says otherwise. And Tom Lee knows this.

So why the bullshit, Tom?

Easy game. Whale-cumulators placing their bids for as low as they can, and FUD all they can to cause a panic for the plebs.

Don't listen, and HODL. Cool

Torque

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 04, 2019, 11:03:08 PM

Another barrier preventing institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency space is a lack of infrastructure, Lee says. However, Lee believes this is due to the lack of regulatory protection. "There’s not enough legal and regulatory protection for bitcoin in the U.S. to prevent a White House executive order banning bitcoin, like nothing today would prevent bitcoin from being outlawed in the U.S."

The officially sanctioned, SEC-approved Bitcoin futures market says otherwise. And Tom Lee knows this.

So why the bullshit, Tom?

bbc.reporter

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@exstasie. Agreed! We have very similar views on this hehe.

I had my doubts, however, it certainly appears that Fundstrat might have really dumped bitcoin. This article is based on the same interview.

Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisor, thinks Visa could be a "long term winner" in the digital asset world.

On last week's episode of The Scoop, Lee told The Block that players like Visa, MasterCard and Facebook will likely emerge as market leaders, but that isn't the backbone of Fundstrat's investment thesis.

"The crypto piece of any traditional equity today is really a call option because it's not going to be the source of intrinsic value or the central thesis for any of these companies," he said.

Still, Lee said he thinks companies like Visa will become "huge winners" in a decentralized finance world supplanting many bank functions.

Source https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/42399/fundstrats-tom-lee-says-the-visas-of-the-world-could-be-long-term-winners-in-crypto

exstasie

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Quote from: Lucius on October 07, 2019, 05:15:04 AM

Quote from: exstasie on October 06, 2019, 12:09:57 PM

I don't understand why he's so hung up on this.

In addition to having poor judgments, it also seems very paranoid to me, from one perma-bull he has become an overnight pessimist.

It might say something about his or Fundstrat's open positions. I got the feeling he and his investors were long and in a lot of pain in late 2018. That recency bias may have pushed them to cover their positions over the last few months. As a matter of fact he estimated BTC's valuation around $14K last December, which supports that idea.

He might be viewing everything through bearish lenses now.

Lucius

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Quote from: exstasie on October 06, 2019, 12:09:57 PM

I don't understand why he's so hung up on this.

In addition to having poor judgments, it also seems very paranoid to me, from one perma-bull he has become an overnight pessimist. I think this is something about the average American who very easily changes his mind under the influence of the media, which in my opinion are very aggressive and leaves little doubt about something. It is not only about e-cigarettes, but about possible Petro banning ( did they do that) law that would by Lee open possibility to ban other cryptos.

bbc.reporter, maybe they dump their coins and caused this -$2000 we have few days ago, but I think he is not so stupid to just dismiss the idea he has been advocating for years. If I remember correctly the price you mentioned was based on the number of bitcoin addresses that existed at that time or number of active addresses. But that didn't make any sense then, as it doesn't even today.

bbc.reporter

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@Lucius. The skeptical me would ask if Fundstrat's new statements are implying that the have already sold their bitcoin?

Also, remember when Tom Lee said that bitcoin's fair value was on $14,000?

exstasie

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Quote from: Lucius on October 06, 2019, 08:21:18 AM

Quote from: https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1171848844394602497

This is un-related but shows White House can issue an ‘executive order’ banning anything. And could even ban bitcoin. Not expecting it. But with current White House, there is “nothing out of bounds nor out of reach”

Quote

"There’s not enough legal and regulatory protection for bitcoin in the U.S. to prevent a White House executive order banning bitcoin, like nothing today would prevent bitcoin from being outlawed in the U.S."

I don't understand why he's so hung up on this. The flavored e-cigarette ban followed FDA reports that they cause lung disease and are killing people. It was an urgent public health concern. The optics around that are completely different from Bitcoin.

There also isn't enough legal protection for gold to prevent an executive order from banning it. In fact that's already been done before! So what? The Bitcoin market (the gold market too) is already pricing in this extremely unlikely risk.

Lucius

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 05, 2019, 07:27:29 PM

It is not only about the fundamentals. I speculate he knew something would occur, however, it did not push through on the last minute.

You don't have to be a genius to understand why this change of mind occurred right now, this can be seen from some recent statements given in connection with a possible law of banning Petro, and flavored e-cigarettes. He also says that US will probably ban BTC when the price reaches $100k. Bad bull, bad bear = Tom Lee Wink

Quote from: https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1171848844394602497

This is un-related but shows White House can issue an ‘executive order’ banning anything. And could even ban bitcoin. Not expecting it. But with current White House, there is “nothing out of bounds nor out of reach”

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: exstasie on October 05, 2019, 01:46:38 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on October 04, 2019, 11:03:08 PM

Quote

Lee said he believes the cryptocurrency space is "too small for the institutional world." Lee goes on to compare bitcoin's relatively small market size to that of gold, stocks, and bonds. "Gold is 9 trillion. The stock market is 66 trillion the bond market is 86 trillion, bitcoin is not even half a percent of the total assets," Lee says, adding that "if you’re asking someone to allocate 1% to bitcoin — that’s like triple the market weighting, like you’re you’re asking someone to make a massive bet even though it’s 1% of their assets because bitcoin is that small."

"It’s probably correct I think about 1% of the U.S. owns bitcoin and at that size it’s too small for an institution, it’s a hobby," Lee concludes.

Another barrier preventing institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency space is a lack of infrastructure, Lee says. However, Lee believes this is due to the lack of regulatory protection. "There’s not enough legal and regulatory protection for bitcoin in the U.S. to prevent a White House executive order banning bitcoin, like nothing today would prevent bitcoin from being outlawed in the U.S."

Due to regulatory uncertainty, Lee believes institutional investors will feel they are taking on "reputational risk" for "extending it to a market that has no regulatory protection..."

Never thought I'd see Tom Lee so bearish on the fundamentals! Shocked

I always said if Tom Lee ever becomes a bear, that's the time to go all in. Well ladies and gentlemen, we've got our signal. We're probably on the verge of a major bull run now.

It is not only about the fundamentals. I speculate he knew something would occur, however, it did not push through on the last minute.

Also, if bitcoin pumps to $25k, !kcab si eeL moT hehehe.

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pooya87

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Quote from: exstasie on October 05, 2019, 01:46:38 AM

~
Never thought I'd see Tom Lee so bearish on the fundamentals! Shocked

I always said if Tom Lee ever becomes a bear, that's the time to go all in. Well ladies and gentlemen, we've got our signal. We're probably on the verge of a major bull run now.

haha, although i don't yet see an immediate bull run but that is exactly the first thing that came to my mind when i read this post. but i have to say i think Tom Lee is mostly talking based on his company's performance. when they fear losing their investors they start making positive statements (predicting bitcoin to $50k in 2017) and when they fail to get new investors they make statements like this.

Topic: Speculating with Tom Lee - page 3. (Read 1811 times)