Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious - page 7. (Read 36078 times)

Iamnotback, can you analyze the block window period? Or am I misunderstanding that part. It appears according to litecoinblockhalf.com that the window for activation is closing. They percentage of signalling may have eclipsed the 75% threshold. However the number of blocks mined during the 8064 block window is around 65%.

How will this affect the activation? I would attempt the math, but I'm not 100% sure of how to analyze that part. So I will leave it up to someone that has a better grasp.

BTW I went long at .0075 3 days ago.

During activation period 5 (6771 blocks mined, 1293 left): CSV 67.5%, Segwit 65.8%.   
The requirement for lock-in is 75% over one 8064-block activation period.

We've reached the 75% threshold for activation of SegWit on Litecoin!

https://web.archive.org/web/20170412134213/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

Just need to hold that for 2 weeks. It should climb to 77% if Jihan doesn't increase his hashrate somehow.

Perhaps no need to rush on ETH, probably will break out of its wedge to upside tomorrow or next, but it was a very long duration wedge so the pullback before the blast off will probably be days or couple of weeks from now...


It's May 23rd. But buy the rumor will start in anticipation.

I also sold my ETH (with no loss) for LTC... just after reading your chart on another thread at 4am (forum time) so thanks to you.

Insane volatility, but a great time to make money day trading. I sold ETH at a profit and reentered LTC before the wedge breakout!

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although i think SegWit news is more powerful than the activation itself but i am also a bit scared of getting in now after i took some profit out.


haha, to be honest i wouldn't be surprised if they announced it even premature.
Ethereum owners seem to be like showmen who have some tricks or jokes up their sleeves and are keeping it if they get stuck or start losing the audience

let's watch and see what happens. price is currently at 0.0356BTC according to bittrex.

FYI, I took profits on this surge and wait to buy back again later, because I think actually attain activation is going to take at least 2 weeks and probably longer.

In the meantime, I have bought ETH. It is in a descending wedge pattern that is going to close within 24 hours. It looks like it has to break to the upside. Perhaps Ethereum will make some announcement on the Raiden (LN clone) upgrade coming. Looks like they will beat Litecoin to having a rudimentary beta of off chain scaling.

keep up the good work iamnotback!

And sometimes perfect timing:

Well, nobody can say they didn't get good advice from this thread

All he doesn't like is something that breaks his miners' advantage. That's the pickle right here, I think you make it sound too complicated when, in fact, it's quite easy to understand.

I reserved a first class seat on the moon train. Better not be disappointed!

Ahem. Is someone named Jihan reading my posts?


Jihan replied?

Who ever doesn't on board the Litecoin rocket now, is going to be kicking themselves until they are butthurt:

You guys are just regurgitating what you read from me here, here, and here.

But that is good. At least you're learning.

Now you guys need to learn this, this, and this.

You're making some progress but until you lose the itch to destroy yourselves by ganging up as a MOB, then you will continue to destroy yourselves.

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Nonsense. Just a lot more fools who can lose their money. The smart money will sell the USAF minority hashrate fork and buy the majority hashrate fork. Jihan might even temporarily mine on the USAF fork and lie-in-wait, so that the fools sell the legal fork and buy the illegal USAF forkoff, and the smart money will do the opposite. Then Jihan moves his hashrate onto the legal fork and bankrupts all the retards.

Sweet justice in the law of immutable protocol.

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I'd assume Elliot Wave Oscillator.

But I wrote before that it is not clear if that 70% really exists. Jihan may be fooling you by signaling some of his hashrate to activate SegWit to lure you into a trap.

If you indeed have 70% or 60%, then you don't need a USAF, just lower the threshold. The reason to not to do that is because it is very risky. UASF helps nothing! Everything depends on hashrate.


I have another new theory for Jihan's motivation. He may want Charlie Lee to be more concrete about SegWit being the final protocol update. The last thing Jihan wants is another set of Core-like developers trying to create trouble. Charlie works for Coinbase (or DCG) and so he might be pressured to put stuff on Litecoin's protocol that favors the vested interests of his employers at the detriment of others.

Again my suggestion to coblee is to communicate with Jihan that he would like to come to an agreement on the BIPs that are acceptable to him and that no more "improvement" BIPs will be made after that agreement excepting bugs fixes.

My bet is Jihan needs some commitment from Charlie that he Charlie and DCG will keep their grubby vested interests out of it. Only way to do that is for Charlie to publicly commit to immutability after some agreed upon BIPs (SegWit being the main one and maybe only big one).

Charlie should already have thought out what improvements are ever going to be needed. It is the off chain scaling coin. It can't be the altcoin-of-everything.

Charlie needs to have a talk with Jihan asap.

@btcbug, more explanation of my prior comment about ETH...


I love how you insult me while asking me to explain what you don't know.  

"I am ignorant and you are an asshurl, but tell me what I don't know before you fuck off". Lol. Very persuasive.

Ahem. Ummmm. (Grabs chalkboard and prepares to writes some BIG LETTERS like ABCs for ADHD children)

Uhhh, can SHA256 ASICs on the scale owned by Bitmain be profitably repurposed to any other coin? No. Can GPUs be profitably repurposed from ETH/ETC to another coin or activity? Yes.

Can the supply of hashrate on Bitcoin be suddenly increased by 50% by renting hashrate? No, supply of ASICs is constrained. Can the supply of hashrate on ETH/ETC be suddenly increased by 50% by renting hashrate? Yes, GPUs are not constrained and GPUs from other coins can be incentivized to switch.

Miners on ETH/ETC have no vested interest. Vitalik will be kicking them out someday anyway. They can repurposed to the most profitable coin any time. So miners on ETH/ETC have no vested interest to enforce immutability. On Bitcoin they have huge vested interest to prevent retards from turning Bitcoin into a political clusterfuck or a BDFL such as Vitalik.

More saliently, Ethereum is a power-vacuum because miners have no vested interest. Thus Ethereum can only exist with a BDFL. This is why ETC was able to fork off.

Stop insulting me and respect the knowledge of those who are smarter and more widely studied than you are. Feel free to reason with me, but stop acting like childish nincompoops.

good observation

What is the EWO in your second chart ?

Jihan Wu approves of my posts?

This is my long term chart of ltcbtc

There's the downward channel, that's my buy zone, there's the divergence in selling power during the last years, and the resistance around weekly 100 and 200 SMA.

If SegWit is activated, I see no reason why the price wouldn't break out of the channel and probably make a new ATH.