(I deleted this post temporary at 11:40 because so many of you jumped on it buying LTC that you caused a significant price rise and volume, thus were interfering with me covering my short and taking a long position. I am re-posting now that I completed my trade)
This is not BS. This is my opinion of the situation. Always do you own due diligence.
After detailed analysis of the chart, I come back to the follow charts as a summary of what lies ahead.
Thus I now recommend taking a long position in LTC.I no longer have any fear of a LTC crash. Whereas, note on the LTC-USDT (Poloniex) chart below, that the main uptrend line support for US dollar price of LTC must begin to move significantly higher no later than April 19. Whereas, note on LTC-BTC (Poloniex) chart below, that the main uptrend line support for BTC price of LTC isn't compelled to significantly higher until April 22, except note the next higher angled trendline does intersect April 19, so the reason for the divergence of the two charts, is the confluence around the April 19 date.
Combine that with my analysis of the BTC-USD (Bitstamp) chart where I predicted the -30% decline in the BTC price will begin roughly April 19! Thus it all fits perfectly together like a puzzle.
Thus I conclude that LTC will be a hedge against the declining BTC price and appreciate at least 30% in BTC. This is a better option than exchanging BTC for USDT because of
the unknown risk of USDT and also LTC being in an upthrend even if BTC did not decline.
Thus apparently my prediction from April 1 has been prescient:
@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).
Combine that chart understanding with
the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.
...
I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.
That chart is clearly indicating that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.Litecoin's price is undergoing the same technology adoption as Bitcoin and all the rest, it is just that the first hump is very volatile (because
silver is more volatile than gold for the reasons I have explained). So this means Litecoin's price is going to $100+:
My prediction that BTC would remain range bound until LTC catches up, is so far proving to be true.
The simple reason for this is that the market is not stupid. The market knows that
Bitcoin can't ever get any scaling improvements to its protocol. Bitcoin will forever be relegated to small blocks, because it was intended that Bitcoin be the most reliable (i.e. no experimental shit) settlement layer for the power brokers of finance. As the fee per transaction rises to $10 on Bitcoin over this year (and let's guess $100 per transaction by 2019), then most of us will not transact on Bitcoin any more. We will transact on Litecoin. And Blockstream will transfer its efforts to Litecoin, which will give Litecoin legitimacy.
So Bitcoin can't move higher until it is assured that Litecoin will provide the scaling solutions that our ecosystem needs so that blockchains can begin to invade the mainstream world of payments systems and fractional reserve banking. Upthread
I explained why Ripple is dogshit, so I expect once it becomes clear that Litecoin will have Lightning Networks coming, then Ripple will collapse. So the smart money should be moving from Ripple to Litecoin.
Note the current jump to $12 looks like it might be overheated and too fast, so I'd be cautious about buying too much too fast. Average in your buys in case we get a dip, but do get some now (nibble) if you don't have any because price can run higher yet. Yet I remain adamant that Litecoin is easily going to exceed $30 and probably $100 before the end of this year, unless somehow SegWit activation is defeated. At the moment SegWit signaling is at 70.8% for those blocks in the last 21 hours. We are very close.
Some myopic people haven't realized that Litecoin needs scaling because it will be receiving all the excess volume from Bitcoin that can't fit in Bitcoin's small blocks, and because the volume will increase exponentially with Lightning Networks enabling private fractional reserve banking and the banks will evangelize Litecoin ecoins to the masses. Litecoin either grabs this opportunity, else Ethereum will take this role with its coming Raiden clone of Lightning Networks. But Blockstream is not going to let that happen. Bobby Lee of BTCC is the brother of Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin. BTCC will push SegWit activation over the 75% threshold with its GPU farm that is mining Ethereum, if need be.
Also myopic people don't realize that block size increases can't scale because due to the equation on orphan rate, orphan rates increases exponentially as block size increases. Exponential worsening is the antithesis of scaling for anyone who understands math and computer science. I also explained why
Xthin is no solution to this dilemma.
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Re: Take profits now!Sell all crypto-currency to fiat IMMEDIATELY. BTC will dive -30%. Altcoins will decline even more. SegWit and scaling has been defeated on both Bitcoin and (at least near-term) also Litecoin. Also there are macroeconomics things going on which will also hit gold and every asset except USD. Store your money in USD or altcoin USDT (dollar peg) temporarily until this dip has concluded
hmm.
Current bitcoin price is $1175 on average today (April 15).
-30% dive means price going down to
$822.5now we wait...
It would have been interesting if you added some timeframe to this speculation. For example is the dive going to happen in next day, a week, a month, 2, a year, in 10 years from now?
The ~30% decline would be from the peak price of BTC in April, if it happens.
Highest price of bitfinex in April: $1244.7 ---(-30%)--->
$871.29Current price: $1214
Highest price of Bitstamp in April: $1229 ---(-30%)-->
$860.30Current price: $1188
Still disappointed since you've given us no timeframe.
The Bitcoin chart is a recursive, diminishing (decaying energy wave) fractal pattern.
The price should peak again at approximately $1208 (Bitstamp) in 3 days and 6 hours from now. After that up to a day of diminishing pattern clustered in tight range around that price, then after that should begin the precipitous decline similar to last month.
In my opinion, going "all-in" or "all-out" at this very moment is dangerous (only exception: if you are totally satisfied with your profits until now).
The scaling debate still dictates the price movements. In every single moment the following two things could happen:
- some pool jumps to BU and gets it near or over 50%, making hard fork a real risk -> very bearish (target: ~700)
- some pool jumps to Segwit and gets it near or over 50% -> bullish / sideways (~1200-1350, but perhaps not strong enough for a new ATH)
- UASF gets traction and Segwit approval is very likely -> very bullish (new ATH, target ~2000)
- a compromise solution (EB, Segwit2MB) gets Core and majority miner approval -> also very bullish
That's why I wouldn't take sides still. And I disagree with AnonyMint: I think no side has "won" until now.
None of those are possibilities. 0% chance.
I think no side has "won" until now.
And no side will ever win.
Reading the following
threads (not just the linked post) will help you understand:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18526721https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18571238https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18579825https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18570031The above link to all my points on the Scalepocalypse.
Sell all crypto-currency to fiat IMMEDIATELY. BTC will dive -30%. Altcoins will decline even more. SegWit and scaling has been defeated on both Bitcoin and (at least near-term) also Litecoin. Also there are macroeconomics things going on which will also hit gold and every asset except USD. Store your money in USD
or altcoin USDT (dollar peg) temporarily until this dip has concluded
I posted about this the other day. Wondering what people's opinions are on the value of cryptocurrency during geopolitical issues (ie war, financial markets crash etc). It is an interesting subject... it seems you're of the opinion crypto will crash heavily. That is one possibility, but it also could potentially be unaffected due to the decentralized nature and perhaps even grow as people look for alternatives to store their money in times of crisis? Just a thought... I'm a glass half full kind of guy :-)
Either way, it's a good topic for people to get involved with as an overall market drop would be a bummer for everyone!
Crypto is not long-term affected by geopolitical noise.
The crypto market is undergoing a painful
Scalepocalypse metamorphosis as n00bs come to understand their idol
Satoshi was an evil motherfucking genius.
So this cognitive dissonance is causing them to rail against Bitcoin (USAF nonsense, etc), and so they will be served up
some event which steals their tokens to silence them so Bitcoin can move forward without the deadweight.
If it does drop below 1000 and I'll be the first person to buy in lol
This is why altcoins decline more than BTC does when BTC declines.
Any altcoin that remained high would be sold to buy some cheap BTC. Since BTC can absorb more flows than altcoins can, the altcoins decline more on a percentage than Bitcoin. When BTC is rising, the inverse effect occurs.
So selling altcoins that had significant rises might be wise right about now while they are still near their peaks.
Comparing to the last Bit
FUnix heist crash which was a ~28% decline from Jan 5 to 7 and another ~11% decline from Jan 11 to 12 for a total decline of ~33%.
LTC/BTC had a 11% relative decline the day before on Jan 4 but it recovered and ended a 15% relative gain on Jan 9.
ETH/BTC had a 20% relative gain.
XMR/BTC had a 25% relative decline, but note XMR had been rising with BTC but lately XMR hasn't rise with BTC.
DASH/BTC had no leverage, so meaning it has same percentage moves as BTC.
I still don't get the point why altcoins should react bearish to BTC decline just now?
For the past months they were quite anti correlated to bitcoin.
Are you disagreeing or agreeing that I agreed with you? You see I was correcting myself.
Ok. But this situation now might be different, since almost all coinse pumped a lot.
So yeah you might be right about the wise decision to sell those pumped coins.
Re: Bitcoin scaling: Looks like all roads lead to LTCI believe some sort of moon is possible, but I feel like Jihan is planning something nasty. I think he calculated how much hashrate he needs to keep the segwit at around 75%, and then by the end of the signaling period, he has to raise it a for a short while to make the average <%75 and the whole signaling period is lost at a small cost for him.
Thoughts on this?
I think if Jihan keeps fucking around he will undermine investor's patience.
Hey may but that is ~2 weeks from now when we get near to the final tally on SegWit. Currently the tally is 78 - 80% with more than 10% of the blocks completed.
The BTC crash is I think ~3 days from now.
The charts don't lie. The uptrend line is going to intersect between April 19 and April 22. Then the price must go up (else the entire uptrend is broken and we go back to $4 which seems ludicrous to me).
I just don't see how he will not. What does he gain if segwit gets activated, vs letting the price grow for 2 weeks, set a short and profit bigly?
I don't care. I can sell before 2 weeks if I compute that the percentage of activation is failing.
Also remember
I think Jihan's only reason for blocking SegWit on Litecoin (he will always block on Bitcoin), is only temporary while he needs time to ramp up production of ASICs. Perhaps May 15 is enough time for him (remember activation is 4 weeks total).
Also even without off chain scaling, Bitcoiners are going to be forced to use Litecoin for payments as Bitcoin's transaction fee rises too high. Litecoin has 4X more block size on chain than Bitcoin.
Also I think Jihan will support some form of off chain scaling for Litecoin. He wants the price to go up (just not too much faster than the rate he can increase ASIC production/efficiencies).
).