This your claim also is why some gamblers are too confidence on their bets and they got the shock of their lives later, saying no way in hell that this is possible whereas it is already in the past.
There is one thing I know about football, and few other sports, even the most fitted club, team or fighter can be defeated by a weak person or team, some people will say the past data of a club is what will determine how they will perform, that's a big lie, you can never know.
To all football fans on here, how many times have you seen a weak football team beating the hell out of the pro teams? I bet it is not one time, but many times in the past.
My point is, even your analysis will not safe your ass from losing money, this is gambling, there is no different here, risk only what you can afford to lose, even if you believe that your team will win, you have no crystal ball to pip into the future, no one does.