Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late

Wendigo

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First off, Keylor Navas is a Costa Rican and as such plays for the Costs Rica national football team. He is not from Croatia and definitely wouldn't be allowed to play for their national team, dude Grin

Secondly, odds tend to change more rapidly closer to the start of the match when the majority of the players are getting their bets in. So, sometimes, it's better to get your bets in very early in order to catch better odds on the favorites for example. Alternatively, wait a little bit more to get better odds on the underdogs Wink

Hazaki

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Whether it is an early or a late gamble , things won't drastically change .
Furthermore , online betting platforms don't display the odds to bet on of the majority of games until it's 5 or 4 days to the due date , and the teams aren't likely to have any games in that time lapse which will minimize the risk of injuries and last minute changements .
This tho can happen in some games especially the WORLD : Club Friendly games and we have seen that the strategy and the line up of some teams can fully change because of one single injuriy since National teams haven't their full lineups and especially no substitutes .

Speaking more of the WORLD : Club Friendly , betting on such games can be very remunerating and my strategy is to always bet on the weaker teams since they tend to seem good teams because all of the good teams are just trying new strategies in such friendly games and such strategies could be a mess and lead to their loss , but it's a friendly game so who cares ..
Tunisia won 1-0 against Croatia yesterday (Croatia's goalkeeper is Kaylor Navas of Real Madrid ) and no one thought that his team will loose especially that most of it's players play in good European leagues .

milewilda

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Quote from: Zlatna Kopa4ka on March 28, 2018, 12:48:17 PM

I always bet early, before the games start. I like to have a good time of thinking about the games that I want to bet on. Which players are absent, the form of the players etc. I used to bet live on sports back in the day and I was pretty successful to be honest I think I've won more than lost. I recommend if you're planning to bet live go for basketball on points for plus or minus.

We do have the same recommendation when going live.I do always prefer to bet on basketball points +/- but i have done this kind of betting when im rushing up but overall i also made early bets before the start of the game, you can really make analysis towards the game. Winning chances might not be an assurance but important thing we are on positive.

Zlatna Kopa4ka

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I always bet early, before the games start. I like to have a good time of thinking about the games that I want to bet on. Which players are absent, the form of the players etc. I used to bet live on sports back in the day and I was pretty successful to be honest I think I've won more than lost. I recommend if you're planning to bet live go for basketball on points for plus or minus.

SyGambler

legendary

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Merit: 1804

guess who's back

I use both cause you need to keep an eye on the markets early and before the games start
doing this you will be able to hunt good value for your betting in the long run , I take degenbet signals as an example where sometimes he gives picks for matches that will start after 5-10 days where he thinks that the odds will drop in the coming days , and so far he was right about that
so catching the higher odds early will either lock you more value or you can simple arbitrage the other side in case you want a sure bet

same case for pre live events where the odds sometimes jump and you may get a good value but for me early bets have been doing better

hacekd

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Quote from: Caladonian on February 27, 2018, 09:44:49 PM

I play both when I have some time to monitor the game, I do use sportbet as they offering live games, I think what is good with live games is you can
assess the players and the team's performances, though odds really change a lot, unlike with early bets where if you are lucky to pick the best one
you will be able to win much bigger but risk also much higher as factors that influence the results still unknown.

actually there is no problem we will place a bet at the beginning or at the end, both equally beneficial and disadvantageous, better than the beginning because we can see the movement of the opponent, unlike at the end of the risk we rely more on luck

crwth

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https://linktr.ee/crwthopia

I have experienced many times I haven't locked in my bet because it's too late and it should be a sure win. I think that's okay because you could really make it up for another bet if you analyze it perfectly then go get it.

reactorjuno

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Merit: 43

I cannot remember if it was shared before but this article published at Pinnacle.com is spot on > https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU?dvc=d&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=link-test

Basically, like said earlier, you NEED to bet early, the closing line is very accurate compared to the opening odds.

Arian247

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As a punter I love placing my bets early because it gives me enough time to analyze the games I want to bet on. I only play live games when I want to make some quick cash. Here are two sites which will be helpful
Scoresway.com this site has a complete h2h analysis of all sports and www.progsport.com a free prediction site with 80% accuracy. I hope this help

Juggy777

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I would never fix my bet early as there could be repercussions maybe the star players could not even be in the star line or they could get injured. I prefer to read the tempo of the game before I begin.

It's a stupid bet to actually go fully it's like a murder of your money cause you'll definitely loose so my advise is not to do it. Be safe and smart with your money.

Bitinity

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Quote from: bitcoinmaster44 on March 02, 2018, 05:55:05 AM

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

Why it is better to bet just before the game starts on parimutuel betting system while the odds keeps changing till the pool is closed? You cant make sure that you will be the last bet on the pool so one bet after you may change the odds significantly.
Maybe it is because I prefer to bet on fixed odds, no matter pre-match bet or live bet. Fixed odds is still the most favorite system in sports betting imho, that's why it is hard for onehash to compete with other sports betting sites.

A Confused Shoe

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Quote from: reactorjuno on March 02, 2018, 09:03:31 PM

Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).

Didn't realize that other sportsbooks waited for Pinnacle to open their lines. Makes sense now as I always hear about other people comparing/modeling their data in regards to Pinnacle's lines -> they must have some of the most accurate ones overall. Thanks for sharing.

And that picture you showed, lol. Yeah, people are all over those lines within MINUTES.

bering

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

i have been experience bets early and bets late while watching live matches but if i have to compare the results of my sport betting my early bets pretty much better rather than bets late but sometimes indeed depend on the situations on the particular matches however i more confident to bets early for sport betting

reactorjuno

member

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Check this picture guys > https://image.ibb.co/kJduJS/picture.jpg
Well here there is inside information surely.

creeps

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Quote from: bitcoinmaster44 on March 02, 2018, 05:55:05 AM

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

Well its depend on circumstances like that but for me betting late are quiet better because you can still make your analysis if your team will won on their next game. Though its hard to bet late specially in real life because people might not accept your bet because the team your betting is about to win.

chris200x9

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Merit: 1011

Quote from: michkima on March 02, 2018, 06:28:24 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

That is the risk one needs to take if they want a better odds in sports betting and winning chances are almost equal. But for this kind of betting you should know both players or teams very well and their recent performance then you can make a better judgment to pick the team to bet before the match start. You may have a better chance to win the bet if you bet during a live match but odds on winning team will not that be great during a live match.

KorakPawon

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Bet on a Clear and Rational Mind

In betting in playing sports betting it is very necessary to have a clear mind and rationality in installing any bet, because if you place a bet involving emotions then surely you will experience defeat and loss because you will no longer refer to sports betting tips and sportsbook gambling information and the data you earn to place a bet, let alone the team that will compete is your favorite team and your pet.

You have to stay rational to be able to reap huge profits in the game, not just because your favorite team plays you to place bets on your favorite team by putting aside the data and information you have got.

reactorjuno

member

Activity: 322

Merit: 43

Quote from: audaciousbeing on March 02, 2018, 07:10:54 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.

Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).

logicgate

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Quote from: michkima on March 02, 2018, 06:28:24 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

Well I think either you bet earlier or later than game, you will not be getting a healthy results. In both cases there is more risk to your amount that is being indulged in betting. Why to go for such option that is at high risk? Don’t you think we must use this handsome amount in suitable manner or any asset like bitocin trading or gold as well, to get a good output from it? You must think.

audaciousbeing

hero member

Activity: 1330

Merit: 569

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.

Topic: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late (Read 557 times)