Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late - page 2.

michkima

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

bitcoinmaster44

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In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

A Confused Shoe

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@reactorjuno - thanks for sharing that article. Yeah, betting the closing line in a consistent and significant fashion really isn't that easy to do, haha. Guess that's why most bettors are - ROI over the long-term.

@BoltBrownie - sounds like you are pretty good at live betting. Unfortunately, that really is one of my greatest weaknesses. Any particular strategies you use when betting live that you care to share?

Bolt Brownie

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Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time.

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

Thanks for your comment, and it makes perfect sense what you are saying. I do bet at betfair, because like I said I prefer to follow a "traders" approach, intead of a punters approach. In some games I just bet live because I use strategies to trade live markets, where my preferred method is to go live on big tennis matches, and scalp the market. It's been working for me, and that's why I do it.

This is why I never looked to carefully to the differences between the odds, since I always make multiple live bets, to make profit, and I don't need the team I bet to win or lose. Sometimes, specially in tennis matches, I start on one player, and I end up getting more profit if the other player wins, because I made the necessary adjustments after my live analysis.

I will start paying attention though, because I might end up going live already with profit, and that will help me even more.

KorakPawon

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I think that's a very cheating way, but yes if we win we get a little bit different, it's different from the players who come in at the beginning of the game, if we just look for a chance in the middle of the game the chance to get a little money, and we better play from scratch and think smart in following the gambling

izanagi narukami

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Although early provide more odds but it's difficult to predict. But , yes it's just same as high risk high reward gameplay on dice
I'm personally choose the late one because I've made some profit from it ! ( guessing the final result for last world cup and I've made 7x from initial deposit )

Caladonian

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 28, 2018, 07:35:58 PM

Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Thanks for sharing this reference as it is a good tool to read and understand the importance of having knowledge to have some edge inside the sports house. With this information, we will be able to analyze and find interesting matches that will lead us to earn little, and together with luck, I guess
chances are much higher than without any knowledge and just betting with our instincts to win.

reactorjuno

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 28, 2018, 07:35:58 PM

Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Thanks buddy.
I remember reading this article published at Pinnacle.

Three years ago, I had 2 days off and opened an Excel sheet, and started entering random tennis matches (I used oddsportal and Pinnacle).
I selected a total of 1200 matches (pretty nice sample).
The results I found:

- betting on Pinnacle closing lines gave me a total negative ROI of -2%
- beating Pinnacle closing lines by 5% or more gave me a ROI of +2%

It means it is very hard to be profitable because of course Pinnacle applies a margin on every odds (small margin but it is still a margin), for example if the margin on odds is 5%, you will have to beat the closing line by 6% or more. Really not easy to do.

There is also this article > https://easysportbet.co.uk/why-are-closing-odds-more-accurate-than-opening-odds/

A Confused Shoe

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Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Indrawan77

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This is an interesting strategy that not many people know, one of the good thing in sport betting is, there are always good odds even if you are betting late, and I like to bet late, in that way I can see the situation and how well the player performed before I decided to bet, and usually betting late strategy is more effective than early bet, I got more profit from betting in the middle of the game

Vaskiy

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With sports betting the odds vary based on the match situation. Based on this fact it is good to place bets once after the match starts. Placing bets before the event or close to the line of start yields profit, but need good strategy based understanding about the teams involved.

Oilacris

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Quote from: harizen on February 28, 2018, 12:10:29 PM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As long as I saw good odds, then I will placed bets whether early or late.

Sometimes there are cases that the bet will closed even it's just still few hours before the game. Aside from that, I sometimes placing multiple bets on the same match like for example betting prior to game and betting on the actual game (live betting) but of course like I said, as long as I saw good odds.

It doesn't matter to me whether I will bet early or not. I do have lots of knowledge about my preferred sports so that is my advantage.

Having the same kind of behavior when it comes to sports betting which I don't really care at all on which time I would put as long I can see good odds or any other advantages or opportunities I do directly make any bets without minding if its too early or too late.This is my own way of betting style too which I have been using for years on playing sports betting.

harizen

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As long as I saw good odds, then I will placed bets whether early or late.

Sometimes there are cases that the bet will closed even it's just still few hours before the game. Aside from that, I sometimes placing multiple bets on the same match like for example betting prior to game and betting on the actual game (live betting) but of course like I said, as long as I saw good odds.

It doesn't matter to me whether I will bet early or not. I do have lots of knowledge about my preferred sports so that is my advantage.

13abyknight

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For me, I don't find much time to sit down and analyse sports on the go, especially during live games. Placing wagers before the game begins while being able to salvage decent odds by comparing a few sport books is my thing. The only odd thing that I find in live betting is that the odds are always skewed hard on one side, and in a wager where everything relies on odds, it gets hard win any decent money for the amount of risk involved in overhauling upset.

poplolnman

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Quote from: Wendigo on February 28, 2018, 01:57:12 AM

You place a pre-match bet. Then if your pre-match bet is going south fast you place a live bet which will hopefully hedge your earlier position and secure you a profit. It's not rocket science. Of course it's possible that you might end up being unlucky twice which would be very unfortunate.

Yeah it's work for me sometimes and risk to get loss even more are there indeed, at least worth to give it a shot. Gambling never fun when you stay on the safe line. So just go for both and take your profit two times or go home in broke. The odds so interesting when you do bet close to the game or in live .

BlockEye

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Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time. Like you said a team might end up losing a key player due to injury, and that might affect the price. Of course that if I see an odd that I think it has value, I will take it, but I will never forget that bet and let it go in play without checking it's price again and the news.

I'm used to do trading, so I have no problems in closing my bet pre-live either with profit or a loss, depending on how the odd changed. Even if I just bet closer to the start of the game, I normally see the game live, and make more bets to lock profit or reduce loss, depending on how the game goes. I'm not a true punter, and I know a will leave a lot of money on the table, because of this, but I also get out of some bad situations.

It has been working for me so far, so most of the times, I make multiple bets on the same event, and it looks more like I'm trading than just betting.

Scenarios like that will varies on what type of sports , or if we really have specific team or individual we support, in any sports we need to know their backgrounds as well their preparation upon training before we do bets unless we idolized that boxer that we will immediately bet on their side. Betting becomes trading only when some news or so called fuds happen upn preparation that changes our mind to do another bets.

reactorjuno

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Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time.

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

Bolt Brownie

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Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time. Like you said a team might end up losing a key player due to injury, and that might affect the price. Of course that if I see an odd that I think it has value, I will take it, but I will never forget that bet and let it go in play without checking it's price again and the news.

I'm used to do trading, so I have no problems in closing my bet pre-live either with profit or a loss, depending on how the odd changed. Even if I just bet closer to the start of the game, I normally see the game live, and make more bets to lock profit or reduce loss, depending on how the game goes. I'm not a true punter, and I know a will leave a lot of money on the table, because of this, but I also get out of some bad situations.

It has been working for me so far, so most of the times, I make multiple bets on the same event, and it looks more like I'm trading than just betting.

btcdevil

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

It depends on the gambler if he is available for live inplay game then i think it is much better to bet in inplay match as you will get some high odds and also know the situation of the match. In some matches where you are confident about the results then you can go before match bet also as some time odds fell down as soon as the match starts.

JL421

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There isn't a big difference both are almost same the lineups can make a little difference but betting late is preferred for most betters as they feel something might change
If you don't want risk of lineup change bet during the match the only way you lose is if the team doesn't perform well otherwise all the other predictions of lineup remains same

Topic: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late - page 2. (Read 550 times)