You can't know if a newbie is a shill account just because he is a newbie? Come on, everyone of us was a newbie at some point of time.
The lottery is not provably fair. So we won't know if the lottery is really run as it is said. Well there are at least some people winning prizes usually the 50 m
BTC one.
In addition to making the lottery provably fair, distributing 30 * 100 m
BTC will be a really better prize structure.
Statistically speaking,I bet everyday on at least a single match but I have won only once.I should win more right ?
Nope. With 100-200 tickets, the variance is high.
Bet amount/ wagered has no relevance. All the three times I won 50 was on 5 mBTC bets iirc, and the time I bet more, I didn't win.
However, since there are 26 prizes, you have a 26/entries chance of winning the raffles.
-snip-
22.06 raffle has a 13.13% chance of winning
The odds are slightly higher.
chance of being the 1st winner : 1/198, 2nd : 1/197 and so on till 26th : 1/173 (not 1/198 for every draw, if I understand correctly. Or can a ticket win more than once?)
On average that is 0.11528 each time you get a prize. [Theoretically speaking]
Which means that the average person (betting 0.005 per game) would see at this point [statistically] a profit of 0.197481032 [if they had lost their 0.005 every single time]
In a village of 1000, 999 have $1 and 1 has $1 billion. We can't say everyone is a millionaire.. (take the big prizes off for more realistic numbers)
But yes, we don't know if that one person has a billion.. and the lottery should be made provably fair.