Preamble: you can't have a good 10-fold rally in bitcoin without first having a good fun panic to get everyone's adrenaline going. Now we've had it and it's over. Let the good times roll! 
So, this is my analysis in the immediate aftermath of the 80-point drop from 630 to 550 on stamp (a 12% drop), which at the time of this posting (a few hours after hitting 550) has rebounded to 585.
I am calling this panic selling as an overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff, announced immediately prior to the crash, here: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/
Here's why I calculate it to be panic selling: According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.
Comments?
So, this is my analysis in the immediate aftermath of the 80-point drop from 630 to 550 on stamp (a 12% drop), which at the time of this posting (a few hours after hitting 550) has rebounded to 585.
I am calling this panic selling as an overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff, announced immediately prior to the crash, here: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/
Here's why I calculate it to be panic selling: According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.
Comments?
I was thinking more or less the same. Lets just see if we rebound strongly from here.
If it follows the pattern of SR1 it will recover within a day or two.
It has taken longer than SR1 to recover but over the past 5 days 'stamp has recovered significantly, from 585 at the time of my OP to 608 right now.
