The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

Possum577

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Loose lips sink sigs!

Adjusting the channel to fit the trend you're looking for would compromise the fact base of this analysis. If you start messing with the numbers to "make them work" you've moved farther from the fact, which makes what you're looking for even less likely.

Quote from: bitleif on June 01, 2014, 03:14:26 AM

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon Wink

Possum577

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Loose lips sink sigs!

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 12:54:42 PM

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Google "MACD + technical analysis" and you'll find the technical analysis rationale that the OP is using for this. The future may never happen as this chart indicates but his thought process isn't wild, without merit, or baseless.

To the OP, where can we see this updated daily or weekly?

Possum577

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Loose lips sink sigs!

The data is just pricing and time, there's nothing tricky about it.

It's the patterns that one recognizes or calls out that is completely subjective, BUT (caps on purpose) Google "Technical Stock Analysis" and you'll find tons of articles talking about the principles being used here to "predict" the future performance based on the past trends.

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 12:54:42 PM

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Possum577

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Loose lips sink sigs!

I notice that the horizontal lines indicating price per Bitcoin get closer and closer together as the price reaches the next highest milestone. This causes the growth line to appear more steep, or more of a "to the moon" trajectory than the lower prices in the range. This not only makes the chart movement more sensational, but it distorts reality.

Can you re-produce the chart with equal distance between each horizontal price line?

Thanks, it's great to see some analysis!

Quote from: JulieFig on June 01, 2014, 12:20:09 AM

BitChick

legendary

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Hey JulieFig,

I sent you a couple PMs but haven't heard anything yet. There is a 100mBTC donation waiting for you on this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8142901

You need to respond in the next 6 days though to accept it. This small "thanks" is to encourage you as you wait for your first real bitcoin rally. It takes more patience than we would like sometimes. I was really hoping we would be at that point right now but maybe it will be delayed a bit due to various things. Hopefully soon though!

dani

hero member

Activity: 525

Merit: 500

..yeah

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 13, 2014, 05:11:26 AM

[...]
I can wait a little

this and

Quote from: blatchcorn on July 13, 2014, 05:47:42 AM

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical

relax guys Cheesy

colinistheman

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Quote from: IIOII on July 13, 2014, 11:22:42 AM

It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

Fourth, he's probably right.

IIOII

legendary

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It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

blatchcorn

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Quote from: dnaleor on July 12, 2014, 01:50:58 PM

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 12:54:42 PM

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical Cheesy

wayshegoes

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Activity: 266

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I lost the liqour money boys...

Quote from: BombaUcigasa on July 12, 2014, 02:31:21 PM

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 02:24:23 PM

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

You reckon most of the BTC mined every day is being hoarded? It would make sense. Never really see that much volume on exchanges. I really hope you are right with your predictions, but I won't be that unhappy if you aren't. I can wait a little

BitChick

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Quote from: fran2k on July 12, 2014, 08:05:21 PM

Beautifully bullish my friends.

fran2k

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Beautifully bullish my friends.

BombaUcigasa

legendary

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Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 02:24:23 PM

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

wobber

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Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 02:24:23 PM

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

+1

wayshegoes

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

I lost the liqour money boys...

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

dnaleor

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Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 12:54:42 PM

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

BombaUcigasa

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Merit: 1005

Quote from: wayshegoes on July 12, 2014, 12:54:42 PM

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Where did you pull your data?

wayshegoes

sr. member

Activity: 266

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I lost the liqour money boys...

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

dnaleor

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Want privacy? Use Monero!

I have updated my log chart, maybe interesting to share Wink

used data: bitcoinaverage (starting at 17/07/2010)

Log chart

Trendline: P = 0,1711645509 * exp(0,0059413348*x) (with x = number of days since 17/07/2010)
R² = 0.8952

Log deviation from trendline (log(trendline)-log(exchange rate)):

And finally... The exponential trend on a linear chart. Always great to see this kind of charts Grin

ShakyhandsBTCer

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Activity: 448

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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin

Quote from: BitChick on July 11, 2014, 07:36:26 PM

Quote from: Skele on July 11, 2014, 07:33:54 PM

July 14th and still $630 Cry

Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months Angry

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble. Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix? I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

I would say that $200MM invested in a new bitcoin investment fund would be more then what would likely go into such a fund. I would argue that more money would be poured into VC that would invest in bitcoin related businesses.

I do think that the ETF will likely push the price of bitcoin higher.

Topic: The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug) (Read 14215 times)