Topic: Stake your 2024 U.S. presidential election prediction here (Read 338 times)

Harris wins 59 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 41 times out of 100,Kamala Harris’ meteoric rise to the top of the Democratic ticket was unexpected. Two months ago, no one could have predicted it.
Kamala Harris is gonna win 2024 presidential election.

The law Walz signed did not force tampons to be placed in men's bathrooms, and yes, that law was (and is) very popular in Minnesota since it helps young girls immensely.

And most people in the USA don't demonize transgender people, and the USA has always been about letting people do whatever they wanted as long as they aren't hurting anybody else.

There is an extreme and emotional minority of Americans who hate anything involving gay people, and the propensity of violent crimes attacking these people is proof of that. Republicans support these people, fuel even more hate toward these people, and thus gain their vote using lies like the one you repeated here.

That is not to say that Democrats don't get it wrong sometimes, but they correct themselves, whereas Republicans spent 40 years trying to ban abortion in the USA even though 65% of Americans clearly don't want that and they are losing every time it is put up to a popular vote even in extreme Republican states like Kansas. Even still, Trump has vowed to effectively override state laws by making abortion illegal nationwide, starting with making the abortion pill illegal, and then allowing states to forcibly imprison women within their borders so they cannot leave to get an abortion in a free state.

This is also not to say that, just because something is popular, that makes it right. But in the US political system, Democrats generally follow the popular sentiment, and Republicans consistently follow ideology, fanaticism and hate regardless of the popularity of these things.

Based on that one might say that there was no reason to increase taxes at all at any point in history. Yet it happens again and again.


Does that mean putting tampons in men's bathrooms, attacking free speech, and allowing people to choose their gender is so popular? You're confusing popular with controversial.
In fact Democrats do a lot of the unpopular. Just go through the policies they tried to go through with and failed due to being completely destroyed and outvoted in the legislative process.

There's simply no evidence "they" are going to go lower in the income bracket, and it doesn't even make sense since if they do it will be unpopular and they will lose their elections. Biden did not pass higher taxes for non-rich people when he had a chance, nor would he have.

You are getting Democrats confused with Republicans. Democrats do what is popular. Republicans do things like make abortion illegal, which 65% of Americans don't want.

That's the problem with Harris as she rarely confirms or denies anything. The idea did not come from nowhere though.

But the proposed change that targets unrealized capital gains has drawn considerable criticism.

It’s “among the worst ideas in the Biden administration’s proposed budget,” said Siri Terjesen, a professor and associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business.

It would serve as a “kill switch” for entrepreneurship because it would end up “discouraging investment & draining capital,” she wrote. Terjesen’s comments came in social-media posts last month and in an opinion column for the Daily Signal, a conservative website.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-backs-bidens-tax-proposals-including-a-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-66c55df2

Kamala Harris wants to hike the current 21% federal corporate income tax rate to 28%, higher than communist China’s 25% and the EU average of 21%, her campaign said Monday.

The Harris-endorsed budget calls for an annual 25 percent minimum tax on the unrealized gains of individuals with income and assets that exceeding $100 million. Once in place, it won’t be long before the threshold is lowered to hit more and more Americans.
https://www.atr.org/5-trillion-list-of-tax-hikes-kamala-harris-just-endorsed/

WASHINGTON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% if she wins a November election against Republican rival Donald Trump, her campaign said on Monday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-calls-raising-us-corporate-tax-rate-28-percent-2024-08-19/

Personally, I don't care if they're going to rip off corporations or millionaires. They're not going to stop at that and continue to go lower in the income bracket simply because Harris said it herself that she wants everyone to end up in the same place.

It's funny that people say it was a Biden's proposal and she had nothing to do with it, yet the media called it the Biden-Harris proposal

I read it again like you asked. You seem to make no distinction between any country, and seem to indicate that using force is always bad regardless of the context, i.e. pacifism.

Nazi Germany was murdering millions of jewish people and that we did everything we could to stop them was a good thing, as far as I am concerned. Same with today and Ukraine. The US is objectively a better country than either China or Russia, and hence we should stop those two countries from taking over the rest of the world (which, as the remaining superpower of the three, is left exclusively to the US).

I can have all kinds of sympathy for the past, but it doesn't matter now and we need to deal with the present.

You are selecting one sentence out of context to talk about it! Read the whole context. I am not comparing the internal governance of these 3. I am comparing their actions towards other countries specially in the context of a world war.
Read the next paragraph, I explained it well enough.

Not worth more than $100m, it's just people with a portfolio that grows more than $100m in a year.  So pretty much billionaires only....maybe a few degenerates...and only in the alternate universe where Biden doesn't drop out, goes on to beat Trump and then he's able to convince congress to implement the unrealized capital gains tax he proposed last June.  A far cry from "If Kamala win this will happen".

Ah, I missed the part where they lied about unrealized gains. There they are only talking about people with more than $100M.

So it looks like all of the Americans worth >$100M won't be voting for Harris. Or at least the ones who also want abortion to be illegal anyhow. Go figure.

This isn't true.  It's spreading all over, especially in the crypto world, but taxing unrealized gains is not something that Harris or anyone in her campaign has indicated she supported.

Seems like the fake news stems from Bidens proposal from more than a month ago on a 40% tax on unrealized gains for people with more than $100 million in capital unrealized gains for the year.

For the next few months nobody should really believe anything they read without investigating the source when it comes to anything election related.  There are going to be a ton of lies that will be very convenient to believe for people on both sides of this election.

While I think people should stake their predictions on Stake with actual money behind them, it's always nice to let people make their voices heard.  I personally think that Donald Trump will win, unless there is a massive fraud (which we know will be attempted).  I think enough states have passed voter identification laws to where another election theft will be more difficult.  I've been putting bets on Trump to win for months now, combining them with other wins to stack myself up quite a payday should the Donald get himself elected.  I'm looking forward to it.

Sure. Whatever. But Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the capital gains tax on those making more than $400k. That is what people are voting on here in the USA.

If you want abortion to be illegal, then what does it matter to you what Harris is doing about taxes?

I'd like to remind you that the first income tax in the US established in 1861 was 3% for people with income over $800.

$800 adjusted for inflation would be over $25k right now.

In other words, income tax was also intended for the rich and then it included everyone.

Harris Win

Am choosing this as a response because considering the information gotten from OP, it clearly shows and indicate that Harris is having more winning edge over Trump, base of the statistics proven there from the chart, also, if we go by the way of the populace and those declaring support for trump, we may also have a second reconsideration that he might also win, but which ever way, what we have proven here is that Kamala Harris wins.

That tax is only for people making more than $400k per year.

I'm a pessimist, so I feel like Harris might win, but there's a chance.

Have you heard how they wanted to stop RFK Jr. by saying he faked his residency? He's now considering giving his support to Trump and he was predicted to have close to 5% of votes.
Then there's Harris with her 40% unrealized gains tax... It's like Democrats are doing whatever they can to wake people up.

I'm really amazed that so many people support woke and cancel culture. How dumb do you have to be? But if you don't support it, why would you vote for Harris when she openly states that she's woke and the world should be more woke?

I cannot imagine what sort of world you live in that you could possibly believe that. It must be nice, wherever it is. One thing I know for sure though: you definitely don't live in a repressive regime. If you did, you would understand, viscerally, what the difference was between the US and Russia.

Although I tend to be an optimist about the future, if our civilization does fall, it will be because our civilization provided people so many benefits and comfort that they were able to say (and think) things... like that. That they became so isolated from the horrors of war and dictatorship that they couldn't even possibly conceive the reality of it, and thus blinded themselves to it, paving the way for thugs to roll over them like they weren't there.

Yeah, this is gonna be loooong...

It is interesting how you hide behind pretty but empty words like "Democracies versus Authoritarianism" as if there is any difference between Nazi Germany, Russia and United States.
A bomb dropped from a Nazi aircraft on a city kills people the same as a bomb dropped from a Russian or American aircraft. By comparison Nazis during WW2 and Russians in the past decade or two have murdered less people compared to the US axis known as NATO after WW2 and during it!

P.S. "invading more vulnerable countries with overwhelming force" that sounds familiar. Oh I know some vulnerable countries invaded with overwhelming force of an Axis: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya and of course today Gaza!

No my friend. WW2 like the current WW5 is fought between similar regimes to gain more power. US didn't get involved in it until the end not because some idiots were affecting public opinion but because the regime wanted to go in as the victor, lose the least and see mainly Europe and of course Soviets destroyed.

If US had entered the war at the very beginning and performed a miracle and ended it then and there, Soviets wouldn't have lost this much and would not have gotten weaker. They would have remained a serious challenge and would have never allowed US to even dream of becoming a hegemon.
Most importantly the Europeans would have remained a serious competition for US instead of being destroyed and weak becoming heavily dependent on US to rebuild their flattened cities.

So since nobody could reach US mainland back in the 40's, instead of getting involved right away the US regime waited it out. Everyone that were a challenge to the regime's much desired hegemony fought each other and destroyed themselves for years; then US entered near the end and became the only victor of the WW2 building its hegemony.
This is exactly why the US regime committed genocide in Japan bombing dozens of cities using napalm and of course the thing everyone usually remembers is the two nukes after Japanese were defeated and were talking about surrendering.

...

Things are starting to sound familiar, aren't they?
5 years ago could you even imagine Europe and deindustrialization in the same sentence?
How much Russia has lost? Economically and militarily?
China is another "competitor". How are things over there in East Asia?
...

Yes. Welcome to WW5.

They are going nose to nose, it is generally unclear who will be the winner. I think Trump is the only one who can make America great.

I'm gonna say Harris will win but unlike 2020 I wouldn't put any money on it. I think I've said back then that Biden/Harris are the worst nominees Democrats could come up with, and here we are, they've painted themselves into a corner where they basically had to ditch Biden at the last minute and Harris was the only option to replace him. Luckily for them, Trump is unraveling spectacularly so they have a decent chance. Unless Harris does something exceptionally stupid around mid-October and Trump stays quiet for the following three weeks.