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Topic: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits - page 19. (Read 60537 times)

sr. member
Activity: 272
Merit: 250
Cryptopreneur
September 10, 2012, 11:21:17 AM
There is a bank run going on. Maybe I am stupid, but how would a legit BTC bank honor timely withdrawals without a Federal Reserve or central bank to step in and become the lender of last resort?
The question is whether there's *only* a bank run going on. There may also be an equity crisis that is masquerading as a bank run.

For example, say someone borrowed from Patrick to invest in Pirate. They may now be slow on interest payments or even making interest payments fully to Patrick out of banked Pirate profits. But that loan will probably go bad unless the debtor opts to pay the principle out of their personal funds. So Patrick may be thinking "I have X bitcoins out there in loans that are current and so will pay on schedule", but he may never see the principle back on those loans.

Things may be much worse than Patrick thinks they are, even if he is 100% completely honest. (Though naive, it's not like lots of people didn't tell him this would happen.)

Quote
Maybe the disagreement is on the definition of scam? If you are expecting a level of guarantee that can only be had with FDIC insurance and central bank backing I think you are asking for too much. I don't think most people here would want to socialize the risks associated wiht BCT lending.
A clear statement from Patrick indicating his equity, liquidity, and obligations would go a long way towards setting reasonable expectations and allow his depositors to track whether he's meeting those expectations.


Isn't most coin lend out at 10% a week? I don't see why someone would borrow from patrick to invest in pirate and get -3% a week profit. Now if it's like hashkings situation where he took insured funds and invested them in pirate for a 6% profit then yes. I think just too many people got spooked and pulled out, now things are gridlocked. At least in patricks situation, unless he wasn't being honest.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 10:53:41 AM

Maybe in your country? I specifically checked, I get around 5%/year and I am fully covered by the insurance.

Have you checked to see how large their trust fund is?  The FDIC covers accounts to $250k, but actually only has assets of like $10B which means if there was a system run on the system, it would go dry and people wouldn't necessarily get their money right away. (that or the US Government would simply print more bills)  The things that work outside of bitcoin don't always translate well into bitcoin.



The EDG sections on funding were even more fuzy reading than the exclusions even. so who knows. ;p
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
September 10, 2012, 10:49:22 AM

Maybe in your country? I specifically checked, I get around 5%/year and I am fully covered by the insurance.

Have you checked to see how large their trust fund is?  The FDIC covers accounts to $250k, but actually only has assets of like $10B which means if there was a system run on the system, it would go dry and people wouldn't necessarily get their money right away. (that or the US Government would simply print more bills)  The things that work outside of bitcoin don't always translate well into bitcoin.

hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 10:35:35 AM
Either way, I think we're all getting off track here.

Some things we can all agree on;
In order for Bitcoin Banks to operate effectively they will require some of the same institutional measures that our real world banks have.
Currently there are no good ways to calculate the risks to a bank for a given debtor.
We need impartial insurance mechanisms in place to cover certain deposits with BTC Banks.
etc, etc.

What we are doing wrong now;
We are taking the 'only' standing 'Bank' in BTC land and sitting them down at the table and pointing fingers for the lack of all the things WE need for banks to work here.
We are assuming that it should be the responsibilty of the only institution at said table to account for these things.

What we should be doing;
Having this very needed discussion about lending/banking in BTC in it's own space where it can be discussed openly and most importantly unbiased of the only one example we have right now.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 10:29:25 AM
What country are you in. And what bank are you refering to?  I'd like to read the fine print for myself because if it's true, myself and many others I know with sizeable deposits would love to bank there and earn interest, and be insured...

I dont know of any bank deposito that does not earn interest. AFAIK only a rented safe doesnt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_insurance#By_EU_country
I have read the 'wiki'. which is not to serve as a replacement for the actual definitions as laid forth in the EU-DGD or any other guidlines or regulations they may have reguarding Euro banking. The term 'deposits' is not all inclusive of everything and there are quite a few, if all very purposly vague exclusions for what is considered to be a covered deposit.

Some of them can be read here;
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:TxSz0bklYOQJ:www.efdi.eu/scarica.aspx%3Fid%3D141%26Types3DDOCUMENTS+does+european+deposit+garuntee+cover+interest+bearing+deposits&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
September 10, 2012, 09:37:46 AM
What country are you in. And what bank are you refering to?  I'd like to read the fine print for myself because if it's true, myself and many others I know with sizeable deposits would love to bank there and earn interest, and be insured...

I dont know of any bank deposito that does not earn interest. AFAIK only a rented safe doesnt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_insurance#By_EU_country
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 09:30:44 AM
Except that even in case of a collapse of the Euro, the risks are much smaller. I could lose maybe 20% due to devaluation if my country exited the Euro, but my principal deposited in the bank is reliably insured up to 100.000€ by an independent dedicated fund;

Not if that 100,000 Euro is bearing interest....  Go read the fine print.


Maybe in your country? I specifically checked, I get around 5%/year and I am fully covered by the insurance.

What country are you in. And what bank are you refering to?  I'd like to read the fine print for myself because if it's true, myself and many others I know with sizeable deposits would love to bank there and earn interest, and be insured...
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
September 10, 2012, 09:28:07 AM
There is a bank run going on. Maybe I am stupid, but how would a legit BTC bank honor timely withdrawals without a Federal Reserve or central bank to step in and become the lender of last resort?
The question is whether there's *only* a bank run going on. There may also be an equity crisis that is masquerading as a bank run.

For example, say someone borrowed from Patrick to invest in Pirate. They may now be slow on interest payments or even making interest payments fully to Patrick out of banked Pirate profits. But that loan will probably go bad unless the debtor opts to pay the principle out of their personal funds. So Patrick may be thinking "I have X bitcoins out there in loans that are current and so will pay on schedule", but he may never see the principle back on those loans.

Things may be much worse than Patrick thinks they are, even if he is 100% completely honest. (Though naive, it's not like lots of people didn't tell him this would happen.)

Quote
Maybe the disagreement is on the definition of scam? If you are expecting a level of guarantee that can only be had with FDIC insurance and central bank backing I think you are asking for too much. I don't think most people here would want to socialize the risks associated wiht BCT lending.
A clear statement from Patrick indicating his equity, liquidity, and obligations would go a long way towards setting reasonable expectations and allow his depositors to track whether he's meeting those expectations.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
September 10, 2012, 09:23:34 AM
I'm not a CPA, as Micon was hoping for, but I do work in finance and understand banking (somewhat).
Real banks, like Patrick's thing here, are never solvent either. They typically only hold 10% or so on hand, investing the rest elsewhere. Typically, the central bank, although being called "the lender of last resort," never actually does any lending. Banks very often borrow from each other.
So the way Patrick can stay solvent and keep honoring other's withdrawals is by doing what real banks do: borrow that money from someone else (or even use his own), forgo any interest profits (or eat the losses), and hope whoever his money is tied up with will pay in time for him to repay his own loans. If the loans Patrick made are paying a high interest, maybe he can even borrow for a lower rate in the real world somewhere, and still keep some profits. And If he made too many risky loans, and can't repay his own lenders because of them, then he was running a bad bank and should liquidate.
Either way, that's how you run a bank: take the risks yourself instead of taking all the profits and dumping the risk on your customers. Having money to give back depositors, even if you borrow from someone else, will also instill confidence and prevent bank runs.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
September 10, 2012, 07:24:21 AM
If you lend out at 7% per week, all you will get is satoshi dice players who have no intention of paying back if they lose their bet.

Maybe lending is basically impossible in bitcoin when there are so many high interest scams around.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
September 10, 2012, 07:23:50 AM

That's ok - everyone does what they need to do. 

I was just reading about the potential collapse of the euro with an impending decision from Germany, and a related article about a "perfect storm" for the world economy being discussed at the Ambrosetti Forum.  Maybe there will be some further bank runs, or at least a significant correction. 

Except that even in case of a collapse of the Euro, the risks are much smaller. I could lose maybe 20% due to devaluation if my country exited the Euro, but my principal deposited in the bank is reliably insured up to 100.000€ by an independent dedicated fund;

Not if that 100,000 Euro is bearing interest....  Go read the fine print.


Maybe in your country? I specifically checked, I get around 5%/year and I am fully covered by the insurance.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
September 10, 2012, 07:21:11 AM

Watching here because you Patrick are the last hope to prove it wasn't all and only scams: if you fail too this subsection of the forum is probably dead for a while as trust is destroyed... and worst of all, we'd have to admit Micon was totally right! Please don't let this happen

Oh for Christ's sake. "Please say it ain't so, Patrick! Say it ain't so!"

Time to drain the swamp.

I was being mostly ironic after the dots, in case you didn't notice  Cheesy

Anyway, Patrick please prove it ain't so  Wink Of course you can't trust less these times.
donator
Activity: 1617
Merit: 1012
September 10, 2012, 07:17:59 AM
the fact that Patrick is slow to honor withdraw requests should be alarming to anyone involved in this scam.
There is a bank run going on. Maybe I am stupid, but how would a legit BTC bank honor timely withdrawals without a Federal Reserve or central bank to step in and become the lender of last resort?

Maybe the disagreement is on the definition of scam? If you are expecting a level of guarantee that can only be had with FDIC insurance and central bank backing I think you are asking for too much. I don't think most people here would want to socialize the risks associated wiht BCT lending.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 10, 2012, 07:12:16 AM

That's ok - everyone does what they need to do. 

I was just reading about the potential collapse of the euro with an impending decision from Germany, and a related article about a "perfect storm" for the world economy being discussed at the Ambrosetti Forum.  Maybe there will be some further bank runs, or at least a significant correction. 

Except that even in case of a collapse of the Euro, the risks are much smaller. I could lose maybe 20% due to devaluation if my country exited the Euro, but my principal deposited in the bank is reliably insured up to 100.000€ by an independent dedicated fund;

Not if that 100,000 Euro is bearing interest....  Go read the fine print.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
September 10, 2012, 07:04:29 AM
Nothing like this is present here; you stand the risk of losing everything.

Yes. And not only because of a bank run. Scams tend to have the same effect.

Watching here because you Patrick are the last hope to prove it wasn't all and only scams: if you fail too this subsection of the forum is probably dead for a while as trust is destroyed... and worst of all, we'd have to admit Micon was totally right! Please don't let this happen

Oh for Christ's sake. "Please say it ain't so, Patrick! Say it ain't so!"

Time to drain the swamp.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
September 10, 2012, 06:48:48 AM

That's ok - everyone does what they need to do. 

I was just reading about the potential collapse of the euro with an impending decision from Germany, and a related article about a "perfect storm" for the world economy being discussed at the Ambrosetti Forum.  Maybe there will be some further bank runs, or at least a significant correction. 

Except that even in case of a collapse of the Euro, the risks are much smaller. I could lose maybe 20% due to devaluation if my country exited the Euro, but my principal deposited in the bank is reliably insured up to 100.000€ by an independent dedicated fund; and if worst comes to worse the BCE can always print money to somehow save the day. Nothing like this is present here; you stand the risk of losing everything. So if bank runs are that bad in the fiat world, much more so here...

P.S. I am not a depositor, I am just worried about the future of bitcoin lending. Watching here because you Patrick are the last hope to prove it wasn't all and only scams: if you fail too this subsection of the forum is probably dead for a while as trust is destroyed... and worst of all, we'd have to admit Micon was totally right! Please don't let this happen  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
September 10, 2012, 06:13:37 AM
If you lend out at 7% per week, all you will get is satoshi dice players who have no intention of paying back if they lose their bet.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
September 10, 2012, 05:28:28 AM
In a possible bad case scenario the effects of any loans that could later turn out to be slow/toxic will be distributed pro rata amongst the depositors.

You can bet your other 2/3rd that this will be the case. Even if Patrick is being sincere, chances are very high that he lend money to people who invested it directly or indirectly in pirate and will be unable or unwilling to repay the debt. Borrow coins at 2% per week and get 5-7% per week. Its a no brainer.  Either Patrick is very gullible or he must have known this.

I dont think he was lending out at 2% a week...the obvious thing to do is charge 7% a week minimum to borrow so sending to pirate is pointless.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
September 10, 2012, 04:46:20 AM
In a possible bad case scenario the effects of any loans that could later turn out to be slow/toxic will be distributed pro rata amongst the depositors.

You can bet your other 2/3rd that this will be the case. Even if Patrick is being sincere, chances are very high that he lend money to people who invested it directly or indirectly in pirate and will be unable or unwilling to repay the debt. Borrow coins at 2% per week and get 5-7% per week. Its a no brainer.  Either Patrick is very gullible or he must have known this.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1014
FPV Drone Pilot
September 10, 2012, 04:41:05 AM
Made a request to pull out a few hundred BTC several days ago. Happy to say that I just received a partial payment amounting to about a third of that. I think that this is a fair way to deal with the situation - in a possible bad case scenario the effects of any loans that could later turn out to be slow/toxic will be distributed pro rata amongst the depositors.

the fact that Patrick is slow to honor withdraw requests should be alarming to anyone involved in this scam.  He (and his wife) seem to breed a culture of ultimate, blind trust in what Patrick says. 

The users that are caught up in the scam and don't understand it frequently lash out at me with hatred.  "Go away Micon, you are wrong this time"  So far I'm batting 1000%, and it's not hard to do because these are such blatant scams.

Anyone invested in this go ask a CPA to look at this thread.  Ask a lawyer, doctor, or accountant to look at this.  Ask a bank teller or anyone over 60 that is solvent.  Please, don't take my word for it - ask someone financially smart that you trust and they will tell you as I did. 
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