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Topic: Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2020 - page 2. (Read 1787 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
Added statistics for January 2019

2019

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
January22 2342 516 4830,88%First user of Jan, 2019
February??2 538 716??First user of Feb, 2019
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
Added statistics for December 2018

2018

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
December23 5042 492 9790,93%First user of Dec, 2018

2019

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
January??2 516 483??First user of Jan, 2019
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
For the stats in December 2017 between the topic figure and the forum official stats.
I known the reason, that is due to the lack of official stat on Dec 2017 (only counted till the 13th December 2017, or nearly the first half of the Dec, not a full Dec).
Therefore, it's normal to see the big difference between topic stats and forum official stats.
Comparing your stats to the forum’s oficial stats (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats) there are a few discrepancies:
< ... >
-   December 2017 is off quite a bit (191 537 vs 63 756 official)
December’s number of registered users seems a bit small on the official stats, considering that BTC peaked on the 16th of December, so I always wondered if they were correct for December 2017. I've just seen that, oddly enough, they only go up to the 13 of December (clicking the detail on the official Stats), so yours seem coherent with events.

Have you known why?
If you known it, can you share it here, please.
Quote
Forum official stats are not available for some reason for 2018.
hero member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 629
Vires in Numeris
Maybe they're testing the forum software or their own code for bots. I don't know how many accounts the forum software can handle but his could be a kind of attack to slow down the forum software day by day... Or, they write a code to create accounts, they have to test if if it's working or not. Also they have to run a stress test, to be sure what is the maximum amount of bot accounts they are able to create when a customer asks, they should be able to give exact timing, like: we're creating you 2,000 fresh accounts in 3 hours time... just wondering...
Maybe it's easier for the customers to just buy some already registered accounts instead of trying to register hundreds of them from the same IP (but if I remember well, recaptcha will stop them and their IP will be banned too if they want to register too many accounts).
So for an average bounty hunter, who's skills are coding rather than creating accounts, it's just easier to buy some of these accounts, and all he have to do is start running his own code, nothing else.

So to cut the long story short, why don't we just lock all the newly created accounts if they don't post in a few weeks time (I know there are newbies who are here to read first and they will post only if they feel confident about the forum, bitcoin, etc... and it takes time, but they are not the majority now unfortunately...)
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
Weird numbers and there is a clear trend upwards from 71% to 80%, merit impact? <…>
I don’t think so. Merit should not lead people to create accounts but not create a single post (which is what I’ve measured). Likely it’s something like the newer the non-posting account, the less chance it has had to post over time. The metrics, going backwards in time, show less number of accounts with cero posts as we go back in time (likely because of what I mentioned above).

There are a few exceptions though, that seem to surge when there are abnormal account creating periods (compared to previous months), and that have a higher number of 0 post accounts than expected:

  - December 2017.. January 2018 (big boom)
  - November 2015.. June 2016 (a few months after the account hack)
  - January 2015 .. March 2015

I went over @Piggy’s dataset to see bot creating patterns and bursts. I think the largest I detected with recent dates was between the 28/09/2018 and the 29/09/2018, with over 7K accounts created in that period, where most of the usernames included upper/lower/number combinations.
I’m not sure why they do it. I think it may be a phased feature: First create a bunch of bot accounts (possibly not too tough), and then move on to trying to use bots to provide them dummy content for their posts (and join campaigns). The latter is likely way more difficult than the former, and many will not succeed, leaving bags of created accounts with cero posts. Of course I could be wrong.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Weird numbers and there is a clear trend upwards from 71% to 80%, merit impact?

But if only 1-2k are nuked there are still something like 20k just lurking, again strange, but probably they are leaving them to age a bit before starting to use them as bumpers  Huh Although I see no reason for it...

80% leaves only 7000 real users if we remove another 90% for alts and another 90% for bounty only and again 99% for future shitposters   Cheesy Cheesy it's probably what Alex_Sr said, one in a hundred.




legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 10802
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain
<...>It is impossible to find out the number of genuine accounts - too many bots are registered. Perhaps genuine is 1 in 50 and perhaps 1 in 1000...
This could give us a clue: I’ve used @Piggy’s full dataset (covers full months up to October 2018) to count the number of registered accounts with 0 posts. Now there could be a number of reasons for registering and having no posts (don’t want to, nuked (*), etc.), but I’d say, more likely than not, many cases are botty created accounts.

On overall average, 73,18% of all created accounts have 0 associated posts.
 
Code:
Year      Month     nAccounts 0Posts    %0Posts
2018      10        39353     31859     80,96%
2018      9         45362     35917     79,18%
2018      8         54384     42815     78,73%
2018      7         69840     53517     76,63%
2018      6         77681     57388     73,88%
2018      5         91993     66755     72,57%
2018      4         86898     63823     73,45%
2018      3         97644     69923     71,61%
2018      2         112211    82573     73,59%
2018      1         214546    171502    79,94%
2017      12        191455    155404    81,17%
2017      11        97286     68276     70,18%
2017      10        89443     59339     66,34%
2017      9         46186     26730     57,87%
2017      8         42254     25514     60,38%
2017      7         41011     27543     67,16%
2017      6         32733     20032     61,20%
2017      5         23978     15127     63,09%
2017      4         15807     9820      62,12%
2017      3         14760     9495      64,33%
2017      2         12677     8227      64,90%
2017      1         13354     9003      67,42%
2016      12        11199     7484      66,83%
2016      11        11187     7254      64,84%
2016      10        9935      6780      68,24%
2016      9         9923      6595      66,46%
2016      8         11193     6832      61,04%
2016      7         11257     7794      69,24%
2016      6         20630     16177     78,41%
2016      5         16918     13434     79,41%
2016      4         18493     14798     80,02%
2016      3         24945     21438     85,94%
2016      2         40436     36777     90,95%
2016      1         39178     35480     90,56%
2015      12        39950     36841     92,22%
2015      11        44059     40887     92,80%
2015      10        68831     65930     95,79%
2015      9         7727      5046      65,30%
2015      8         10942     8105      74,07%
2015      7         12616     9489      75,21%
2015      6         9310      6630      71,21%
2015      5         8037      5571      69,32%
2015      4         8914      6094      68,36%
2015      3         38297     34399     89,82%
2015      2         34357     30799     89,64%
2015      1         20794     17206     82,75%
2014      12        8391      5061      60,31%
2014      11        7996      4490      56,15%
2014      10        8332      4606      55,28%
2014      9         10158     5825      57,34%
2014      8         11443     6699      58,54%
2014      7         11119     6434      57,86%
2014      6         11952     7129      59,65%
2014      5         14264     7685      53,88%
2014      4         17948     11318     63,06%
2014      3         33521     24153     72,05%
2014      2         25450     13680     53,75%
2014      1         26619     12079     45,38%
2013      12        31775     15383     48,41%
2013      11        19680     10776     54,76%
2013      10        2927      1562      53,37%
2013      9         5155      2738      53,11%
2013      8         6052      3410      56,35%
2013      7         7413      3764      50,78%
2013      6         9372      5197      55,45%
2013      5         15512     8771      56,54%
2013      4         18712     8986      48,02%
2013      3         7357      3453      46,93%
2013      2         3532      1794      50,79%
2013      1         3184      1859      58,39%
2012      12        2765      1691      61,16%
2012      11        2708      1763      65,10%
2012      10        3199      2067      64,61%
2012      9         2345      1268      54,07%
2012      8         2394      1230      51,38%
2012      7         2109      1197      56,76%
2012      6         2079      1318      63,40%
2012      5         2017      1265      62,72%
2012      4         2071      1417      68,42%
2012      3         2117      1518      71,71%
2012      2         1991      1275      64,04%
2012      1         2051      1287      62,75%
2011      12        1719      1304      75,86%
2011      11        1990      1545      77,64%
2011      10        2060      1469      71,31%
2011      9         2443      1706      69,83%
2011      8         3856      2511      65,12%
2011      7         5451      3278      60,14%
2011      6         14434     7318      50,70%
2011      5         5866      2947      50,24%
2011      4         2822      1864      66,05%
2011      3         2423      1760      72,64%
2011      2         1090      564       51,74%
2011      1         376       179       47,61%
2010      12        422       161       38,15%
2010      11        218       115       52,75%
2010      10        174       76        43,68%
2010      9         167       92        55,09%
2010      8         163       82        50,31%
2010      7         333       58        17,42%
2010      6         34        8         23,53%
2010      5         15        2         13,33%
2010      4         22        1         04,55%
2010      3         5         0         00,00%
2010      2         22        0         00,00%
2010      1         8         0         00,00%
2009      12        8         0         00,00%
2009      11        3         0         00,00%
 

(*) According to @suchmoon’s post on banned accouts (see [MERIT][NSFN] We're destroying more merits than we're sending. Like, way more), between 1,2k and 1,7k accounts are nuked every month, thus causing these accounts to have 0 posts.

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
August54384
November35127

Wow, that's quite a drop and pure coincidence, but still -35.40%  is so close to the fluctuation in bitcoin price since mid-August till now (6500>4000), around 38%

Probably it's not just price but also the introduction of the 1 merit requirement, the diminishing interest in ICOs and thus the demand for bumping bots but if this bear market continues we will probably see less than 500 new accounts a day.
I wonder how many of those are genuine...

It is impossible to find out the number of genuine accounts - too many bots are registered. Perhaps genuine is 1 in 50 and perhaps 1 in 1000...
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
August54384
November35127

Wow, that's quite a drop and pure coincidence, but still -35.40%  is so close to the fluctuation in bitcoin price since mid-August till now (6500>4000), around 38%

Probably it's not just price but also the introduction of the 1 merit requirement, the diminishing interest in ICOs and thus the demand for bumping bots but if this bear market continues we will probably see less than 500 new accounts a day.
I wonder how many of those are genuine...
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
Added statistics for November 2018

2018

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
November351272 457 8521,41%First user of Nov, 2018
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
Added statistics for October 2018

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
October39 3542 418 4981,60%First user of Oct, 2018
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
Added statistics for September

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
September45 3622 373 1361,88%First user of Sep, 2018
hero member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 629
Vires in Numeris
I don't know the background, but I think farmers are not registering the new accounts only on demand. I think they are creating accounts here continously, and they sell/rent them when a customer drops in.
So to cut the long story short, I think they are using the FIFO method when they sell/rent their farmed accounts. This means when a customer gets some accounts from farmers, those accounts are quite old already (but without any posts). So if this is true, your statistics can be true that there are only a few accounts banned in a few months time after the registration.
If you are after the spammer accounts, I would do it just the opposite way (but I don't have the knowledge to the technical and programming part to e.g. write a query, etc...) If you could check how old the accounts who were banned at a specific time, it could show something different, I guess.
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Are the nuked users marked also as Newbies, without any post? If mods nuke a newbie, who already posted something, all of the posts are deleted too. This means for me that the newbies with 0 posts could be partially nuked users also.
Nuked users are shown as "Brand new" (example).

I'm curious how many users are nuked. I'll make an estimate based on a sample of the data: I start with the first post of the month, then add 10 to the userID. This means I scrape 10% of all users from http://bpip.org/, to get an estimate of the percentage of users that have been nuked in a month.

Update: I'm not sure if BPIP has ban-data from January 2018, and I didn't want to continue the slow scraping process.
I expected a large percentage of accounts to be banned, but it's really not that much. Most new accounts (about 75%) never made a single post.
That leaves just data for August 2018: I've scraped 10% of all accounts (starting at 2318753, ending at 2373137): 3 users have been Autobanned and 65 users have been Nuked (5439 accounts checked). That's only 1.25% of all accounts, or approximately 5% of all accounts that have ever posted.
I'm currently checking July 2018, then I'll stop. I'm curious to see if a higher percentage gets banned a month later.
Update: 18 users have been Autobanned and 167 users have been Nuked (6984 accounts checked).
In short:
2.65% of the accounts created in July are banned.
1.25% of the accounts created in August are banned.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 962
HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!
UPD: Added statistics for August

MonthRegisteredTotal at the beginning of the month% increaseFirst user of the month
August54 3842 318 7522,35%First user of Aug, 2018
hero member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 629
Vires in Numeris
Are there some statistics about the number of users that have been banned/nuked?
And in the case of banned members, about their ranks?

I think it would be interesting to see how many of the freshly registered users are shown the exit door daily.

I have a feeling that each time the mods are following the lists of LoyceV and others, after a few hours the number of fresh registrations spikes again  Grin

Are the nuked users marked also as Newbies, without any post? If mods nuke a newbie, who already posted something, all of the posts are deleted too. This means for me that the newbies with 0 posts could be partially nuked users also. (And I'm not surprised if the number of these kind of users are growing...)
copper member
Activity: 2996
Merit: 2371
I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.
[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

The sample began with 100 accounts:
Sample 100:
79% - 0 post - Brand new
7 % - 1 post
3 % - 2 post
4 % - 10 post and more

Sample 200:
75% - 0 post - Brand new
8 % - 1 post
4 % - 2 post
5 % - 10 post and more

Sample 250:
73,6% - 0 post - Brand new
8,0 % - 1 post
4,0 % - 2 post
5,2 % - 10 post and more

I think the error in the sample of 500 accounts is no more than 0.5-1%
I understand that the sample might be generally accurate for that general period of time, but I am interested in seeing how this changes over time.
hero member
Activity: 2352
Merit: 905
Metawin.com - Truly the best casino ever
74% - 0 post - Brand new
I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx
What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.
No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.
How about the daily new posts, new topics and page views. They seems look like useful.
Quote
Can provide the daily data? Thx
Here it is:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats
If you are looking for them, then I suggest you to choose some sections because for example bitcoin discussion is very spammed. Also it will be better if you often visit cointelegraph.
newbie
Activity: 2
Merit: 0
74% - 0 post - Brand new
I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx
What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.
No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.
How about the daily new posts, new topics and page views. They seems look like useful.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Are there some statistics about the number of users that have been banned/nuked?
And in the case of banned members, about their ranks?

I think it would be interesting to see how many of the freshly registered users are shown the exit door daily.

I have a feeling that each time the mods are following the lists of LoyceV and others, after a few hours the number of fresh registrations spikes again  Grin
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