Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2020 - page 3.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Quickseller on July 19, 2018, 12:16:32 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

The sample began with 100 accounts:
Sample 100:
79% - 0 post - Brand new
7 % - 1 post
3 % - 2 post
4 % - 10 post and more

Sample 200:
75% - 0 post - Brand new
8 % - 1 post
4 % - 2 post
5 % - 10 post and more

Sample 250:
73,6% - 0 post - Brand new
8,0 % - 1 post
4,0 % - 2 post
5,2 % - 10 post and more

I think the error in the sample of 500 accounts is no more than 0.5-1%

Quickseller

copper member

Activity: 2996

Merit: 2371

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

I am most curious to see how many users make their first 10 posts, by month and compare this to the overall number of accounts registered to look for trends of entities possibly creating many accounts that are not used.

In general, “active” users is a more useful stat than “users” (that includes those who are not/never active).

shield132

hero member

Activity: 2352

Merit: 905

Metawin.com - Truly the best casino ever

Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.

Thirdspace

hero member

Activity: 1232

Merit: 738

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Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

probably most of them are already barred from posting because of proxyban
I also believe proxyban is one factor that drives the registration numbers high
but of course this is a result from spammers get banned, thus evil point added to those bad IPs

spammer get banned >> mark bad IP >> new registration >> add evil point on the same IP
the faster and more frequent they get banned on various IPs,
the more IPs get flagged, the more accounts created and abandoned due to proxyban

LoyceV

legendary

Activity: 3290

Merit: 16489

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Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

John_BAKA

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

74% - 0 post - Brand new
8% - 1 post
3% - 2 post
6% - 10 posts and more
3% - 30 posts and more
1% - 40 posts and more

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)
Start - https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/giftpeters-2171231
1: 2171231 (Date Registered: June 01, 2018, 12:00:33 AM)
2: 2171331
...
500: 2221131 (Date Registered: June 19, 2018, 11:31:01 AM)

P.S. Sorry for my English

Quickseller

copper member

Activity: 2996

Merit: 2371

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

DabLjat

member

Activity: 193

Merit: 70

The chart of registrations resembles the dynamics of the bitcoin exchange rate

TryNinja

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 6830

Quote from: spokewsa on July 17, 2018, 09:02:22 AM

What is the reason why forum stats are not visible for 2018 ?

Most likely because it was using too much of the forum's process.

Quote from: spokewsa on July 17, 2018, 09:02:22 AM

Also, can someone from staff confirm if spam account registrations have reduced in last one week or so ?

I doubt. Why would it? Jr. Members still can join most of the shitbounties announced in the forum. And it only takes 30 days to become one.

spokewsa

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

What is the reason why forum stats are not visible for 2018 ? Also, can someone from staff confirm if spam account registrations have reduced in last one week or so ?

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Harlot on July 16, 2018, 05:52:32 AM

What could be more interesting is knowing how many of those new members are still active and posting here in the forum because I know a lot of them have abandoned their account by now.

Yes, that would be very interesting. But it is very difficult to calculate manually.

Harlot

hero member

Activity: 1806

Merit: 672

So I am concluding that the merit system didn't hinder people from creating an account here in the forum as it has been consistent all through out from 2017-2018. The only number jumping is when the bull run is happening from December to January and it has only drop after that. What could be more interesting is knowing how many of those new members are still active and posting here in the forum because I know a lot of them have abandoned their account by now.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 16, 2018, 04:59:04 AM

On forum profiles there is a recent one published this week by mazdafunsun: Truth about bitcointalk users 2.0 . He focused on profiles while you've focused on registration dates.

I just translated my topic created in may, 2018
Cтaтиcтикa peгиcтpaций нa Bitcointalk

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 16, 2018, 04:59:04 AM

Can you explain why you are calling your stats alternative? (I guess you scrapped all user profiles to do it).

Alternative because there are already official

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Comparing your stats to the forum’s oficial stats (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats) there are a few discrepancies:

-   Jan and Feb 2017 are inverted between your stat and the official one.
-   August and October 2017 are off by 1
-   November 2017 is off a few (97 344 vs 97 286 official)
-   December 2017 is off quite a bit (191 537 vs 63 756 official)

December’s number of registered users seems a bit small on the official stats, considering that BTC peaked on the 16th of December, so I always wondered if they were correct for December 2017. I've just seen that, oddly enough, they only go up to the 13 of December (clicking the detail on the official Stats), so yours seem coherent with events.

Forum official stats are not available for some reason for 2018.

Can you explain why you are calling your stats alternative? (I guess you scrapped all user profiles to do it).

On forum profiles there is a recent one published this week by mazdafunsun: Truth about bitcointalk users 2.0 . He focused on profiles while you've focused on registration dates.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019

2017

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	12 677	936 822	1,43%	First user of Jan, 2017
February	13 354	950 176	1,33%	First user of Feb, 2017
March	14 760	962 853	1,53%	First user of Mar, 2017
April	15 807	977 613	1,62%	First user of Apr, 2017
May	23 978	993 420	2,41%	First user of May, 2017
June	32 733	1 017 398	3,22%	First user of Jun, 2017
July	41 011	1 050 131	3,91%	First user of Jul, 2017
August	42 254	1 091 142	3,87%	First user of Aug, 2017
September	46 186	1 133 396	4,08%	First user of Sep, 2017
October	89 444	1 179 583	7,58%	First user of Oct, 2017
November	97 344	1 269 026	7,67%	First user of Nov, 2017
December	191 537	1 366 370	14,02%	First user of Dec, 2017
Total:	621 085

2018

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	224 576	1 557 907	14,42%	First user of Jan, 2018
February	112 212	1 782 483	6,30%	First user of Feb, 2018
March	97 644	1 894 695	5,15%	First user of Mar, 2018
April	86 898	1 992 339	4,36%	First user of Apr, 2018
May	91 993	2 079 237	4,42%	First user of May, 2018
June	77 683	2 171 230	3,58%	First user of Jun, 2018
July	69 840	2 248 912	3,11%	First user of Jul, 2018
August	54 384	2 318 752	2,35%	First user of Aug, 2018
September	45 362	2 373 136	1,88%	First user of Sep, 2018
October	39 354	2 418 498	1,60%	First user of Oct, 2018
November	35 127	2 457 852	1,41%	First user of Nov, 2018
December	23 504	2 492 979	0,93%	First user of Dec, 2018
Total:	958 575

2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	22 234	2 516 483	0,88%	First user of Jan, 2019
February	16 202	2 538 716	0,63%	First user of Feb, 2019
March	18 932	2 554 918	0,74%	First user of Mar, 2019
April	17 910	2 573 850	0,69%	First user of Apr, 2019
May	24 472	2 591 760	0,94%	First user of May, 2019
June	22 357	2 616 232	0,85%	First user of Jun, 2019
July	18 913	2 638 589	0,71%	First user of Jul, 2019
August	16 452	2 657 502	0,62%	First user of Aug, 2019
September	14 561	2 673 954	0,54%	First user of Sep, 2019
October	17 891	2 688 515	0,66%	First user of Oct, 2019
November	16 356	2 706 406	0,60%	First user of Nov, 2019
December	17 600	2 722 762	0,64%	First user of Dec, 2019

2020

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	13 620	2 740 362	0,49%	First user of Jan, 2020
February	??	2 753 982	??	First user of Feb, 2020

100 000 user has been registered April 14, 2013, 11:49:44 PM

500 000 user has been registered March 31, 2015, 05:46:08 AM

1 000 000 user has been registered May 11, 2017, 09:12:46 AM

2 000 000 user has been registered April 03, 2018, 10:30:32 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new
8% - 1 post
3% - 2 post
6% - 10 posts and more
3% - 30 posts and more
1% - 40 posts and more

Topic: Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2020 - page 3. (Read 1787 times)