[stats] Bitcointalk vs BTC price - Bitcoin stronger than ever! [update 10/10/13]

dnaleor

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Fresh update: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stats-bitcointalk-vs-btc-price-bitcoin-bubble-alert-update-201013-314776

Quote

Hi!

The recent price trend calls for a fresh update

Unfortunatly, new members are not yet allowed to the forum, so no data for "new members".
But this also influences the other parameters (less posts and topics)

anyway, the number of new posts and topics dropped a little. But the price just raced upwards...
I fear we are going into bubble territory...

Do you have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below

Previous discussion: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stats-bitcointalk-vs-btc-price-bitcoin-stronger-than-ever-update-101013-308653

charts:

"smoothed chart":

Raw data: https://i.imgur.com/6LAnQZ9.png

"smoothed log chart":

Raw data: https://i.imgur.com/JGN0ZOZ.png

Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks!

and maybe consider a small donation ;-)

dnaleor

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seems like the uptrend is faster than I expected Shocked

I call a pullback in the next days towards 150 USD (bitcoinaverage.com); maybe even lower (if panic sells would kick in, we could go as low as 135 USD, but I dont really expect that to happen)

I guess these interesting trends deserve an update Wink

It will be here soon Cheesy

dnaleor

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Quote from: rampantparanoia on October 10, 2013, 12:32:30 PM

any chance you could be convinced to use a different image hosting service, like imgur?

work proxy blocks the existing one.

ok, next time Ill use imgur Wink

rampantparanoia

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any chance you could be convinced to use a different image hosting service, like imgur?

work proxy blocks the existing one.

bitcoinBull

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rippleFanatic

Thanks for the charts. Always good to have more indicators..

el_rlee

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Quote from: dnaleor on October 09, 2013, 07:52:34 PM

interesting fact:

04/2012 until 09/2012:
This was the period after the crash after the previous bubble.

Number of new members was stable BUT number of posts was trending higher and... The price of BTC doubled slowly!
Maybe we are in this fase again? Maybe... we will hit 250 USD in 5 months (february 2014), followed by a new bubble perhaps? Cheesy

Bubble, bubble, bubble ♪♫♬

dnaleor

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Quote from: tutkarz on October 10, 2013, 02:25:57 AM

are there still people who don't know to be bullish or not? Do people need bitcoin? yes. Do people create new services for it? yes. Then why some people are still surprised when price is doubling?

I know 'm bullish Wink

tutkarz

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are there still people who don't know to be bullish or not? Do people need bitcoin? yes. Do people create new services for it? yes. Then why some people are still surprised when price is doubling?

dnaleor

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interesting fact:

04/2012 until 09/2012:
This was the period after the crash after the previous bubble.

Number of new members was stable BUT number of posts was trending higher and... The price of BTC doubled slowly!
Maybe we are in this fase again? Maybe... we will hit 250 USD in 5 months (february 2014), followed by a new bubble perhaps? Cheesy

dnaleor

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Hi people, here is the fresh update of the bitcointalk stats vs bitcoin price.

*I added bitcoinaverage.com data (brown line).
*I left the data for the days of the downtime of the forum "blank" so the chart doesn't show "wild swings"
(I'm very busy atm, so the promised regression analysis isn't yet finished. I hope to get it done for the next update)

After the downtime of the forum and TSR closing, Bitcoin seems stronger than ever:
*number of new posts slightly going up
*number of new members stable
*number of new topics stable
*number of pageviews are high, although we should note that this is a volatile number

And... the value of bitcoin is just "flat" for the last 40 days (ignoring the few hours after the takedown of TSR)... Really stable Bitcoin value.

The future looks bright! Cheesy

Am I too bullish? Have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below

Previous discussion: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcointalk-stats-update-bubble-over-292175

charts:

"smoothed chart":

raw data link

"smoothed log chart":

raw data link

Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks!

Topic: [stats] Bitcointalk vs BTC price - Bitcoin stronger than ever! [update 10/10/13] (Read 2081 times)