Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over?

dnaleor

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New update

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stats-bitcointalk-vs-btc-price-bitcoin-stronger-than-ever-update-101013-308653

Quote

Hi people, here is the fresh update of the bitcointalk stats vs bitcoin price.

*I added bitcoinaverage.com data (brown line).
*I left the data for the days of the downtime of the forum "blank" so the chart doesn't show "wild swings"
(I'm very busy atm, so the promised regression analysis isn't yet finished. I hope to get it done for the next update)

After the downtime of the forum and TSR closing, Bitcoins seems stronger than ever:
*number of new posts slitly going up
*number of new members stable
*number of new topics stable
*number of pageviews are high, although we should note that this is a volatile number

And... the value of bitcoin is just "flat" for the last 40 days (ignoring the few hours after the takedown of TSR)... Really stable Bitcoin value.

The future looks bright! Cheesy

Am I too bullish? Have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below

Previous discussion: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcointalk-stats-update-bubble-over-292175

charts:

"smoothed chart":

raw data link

"smoothed log chart":

raw data link

Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks!

dserrano5

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Quote from: SheHadMANHands on September 29, 2013, 11:54:00 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong... you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards. I assume by this you mean (new members/day).

Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change?

Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members. There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison. Growth over few months appears more linear.

The problem with this is that the price can go down, however the number of members "can't".

SheHadMANHands

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Quote from: b!z on September 29, 2013, 12:32:40 AM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on September 29, 2013, 12:07:38 AM

OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers.

Correct me if I'm wrong... you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards. I assume by this you mean (new members/day).

Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change?

Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members. There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison. Growth over few months appears more linear.

dnaleor

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I have found the raw data of bitcoinaverage.com
I'll add a second line on the chart

The regression analysis however will be done with the data of mt gox...

wachtwoord

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Quote from: smoothie on September 29, 2013, 05:04:23 AM

Quote from: el_rlee on September 29, 2013, 04:21:39 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 04:00:38 AM

Quote from: el_rlee on September 28, 2013, 10:52:42 PM

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...

I'll see what I can do Wink

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

Have to agree here.

Come on, it's <13% difference. On the scales depicted the figure this isn't very important.

Keldel

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Interesting chart, thank you!

Maybe bitcoin is just transitioning from an experiment to a real store of wealth for more and more people? Hardly anyone registers on gold forums or googles gold, yet a lot of people trust gold to store their wealth!

I hope one day bitcoin goes down on google trends because everyone just knows about it already!

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: el_rlee on September 29, 2013, 04:21:39 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 04:00:38 AM

Quote from: el_rlee on September 28, 2013, 10:52:42 PM

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...

I'll see what I can do Wink

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

Have to agree here.

el_rlee

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Quote from: dnaleor on September 29, 2013, 04:00:38 AM

Quote from: el_rlee on September 28, 2013, 10:52:42 PM

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...

I'll see what I can do Wink

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

dnaleor

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Quote from: el_rlee on September 28, 2013, 10:52:42 PM

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...

I'll see what I can do Wink

dnaleor

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Quote from: b!z on September 28, 2013, 10:55:07 PM

Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working?

They are loading for me, maybe it's your internet connection? Don't know...

Zangelbert Bingledack

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I think the recent dropoff has more to do with discussion spilling over to reddit.com/r/Bitcoin and elsewhere off-site. Also, the speculation forum seems by far the most active, so it should be obvious that stable pricing will curtail activity, especially considering how stable the prices feel relative to the instability of the recent past.

b!z

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Quote from: SheHadMANHands on September 29, 2013, 12:07:38 AM

OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers.

SheHadMANHands

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OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

b!z

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Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working?

el_rlee

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May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: dnaleor on September 28, 2013, 06:24:31 PM

excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks...
However, I prepared my excel data file for easy egression analysis, so expet some new insight on the 1st of october!

I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal'

edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month

Looking forward to the updates. Interesting information. Thanks!

dnaleor

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excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks...
However, I prepared my excel data file for easy regression analysis, so expect some new insight on the 1st of october!

I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal'

edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month

rampantparanoia

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el_rlee

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Thanks. This thread does not get enough attention.

dnaleor

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 17, 2013, 10:00:18 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on September 17, 2013, 09:49:46 AM

Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable.

I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era"
possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days

edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis Wink

Thanks for the heads up. Your charts are great but your interpretation seems biased to the bullish side.

Even if most indicators you track flatten out that does not indicate a rising price perse.

For example the first half year of 2012 also showed flat lines for most indicators but price did trend downwards in that period.

I would also like to point out that after the collapse in 2011 there was also a brief period in August 2011 where price went up again and all indicators also stopped falling for a month or so. However, the collapse of price and all other indicators continued thereafter for many months.

you are right... I know i'm a bull, but hey, we are in the speculation subforum Wink

The charts are provided so everyone can make their own anaysis

Topic: Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over? (Read 3448 times)