Stock to Flow Model the most accurate prediction of all models saying 82k May

FatFork

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Quote from: Spack17 on April 21, 2021, 05:55:41 PM

I'm really curious about this model and I wonder it will succeed in predicting Bitcoin's movements correctly. For now, Bitcoin price seems not very promising. It's still around 54k.

I beg to differ. According to the S2F model's chart, the bitcoin price seems to be quite promising. Minor corrections are always welcome because they are necessary for healthy growth. You can see that there were similar fluctuations in 2017 as well.
The price is poised to grow over $70 k at the very least by the end of May. The bullish trend has not looked that compelling for a long time.

veznata

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this s2f model is far from perfect but i don't know of a better one so far. it points 288K peak this cycle. I would say 150K and will start selling off at 100K until it reaches peak i will be all in fiat. that's my intention and it has not changed for more than 3-4 years now.
as times goes this price will go higher but not as high as it predicts. it is absolutely impossible 100's trilliions to flow in bitcoin or crypto unless some superinflation comes to the world. maybe a decade from now BTC will be nothing special and will be replaced by smth much better as technology progresses day by day.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: franky1 on April 21, 2021, 10:45:05 PM

chart in OP is meaningless

the colourful line is the daily prices...
the line is just the average of those prices

its not predicting anything

its just whole numbers and yearly averaged numbers

its not taking 2 different datapoints of 2 different metrics.
its just the same piece of data represented in 2 ways

sorry guys but its meaningless

I didn’t believe it before the halving, but it’s very astounding in how the price has followed the model with enough accuracy that it might be a “crystal ball” until Bitcoin doesn’t follow the model anymore. It’s merely a guide, for the the next two halvings?

franky1

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chart in OP is meaningless

the colourful line is the daily prices...
the line is just the average of those prices

its not predicting anything

its just whole numbers and yearly averaged numbers

its not taking 2 different datapoints of 2 different metrics.
its just the same piece of data represented in 2 ways

sorry guys but its meaningless

Spack17

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I'm really curious about this model and I wonder it will succeed in predicting Bitcoin's movements correctly. For now, Bitcoin price seems not very promising. It's still around 54k.

fillippone

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Quote from: OgNasty on April 21, 2021, 04:39:31 PM

I've got to disagree bigtime here. Since discovering Bitcoin nearly 10 years ago I've been absolutely amazed how every trading pattern is regularly followed to a T. I think it has been the most predictable asset to gauge future price of anything I've ever encountered. This is likely due to the movement being heavily influenced by traders seeking to profit from patterns that they then trade into existence. I think once people start adding ETFs to their 401Ks and the waves of money coming in are more regular and less influenced by market conditions, this will begin to change. I believe this is why leveraged traders have always gotten killed trading Bitcoin. They're used to those regular contributions pumping up the market and saving their longs while also inflating bad companies and exposing them to shorting opportunities and the Bitcoin market just hasn't matured to that stage yet.

If it were a perfectly predictable market, investors would start discounting all future halving, we wouldn't have had several 80% drawdown and we wouldn't have an 80% volatility after 12 years from launch, but we already would have a multimillion price.
I have the suspect I am considering far longer investment arch than those you are referring to.

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Quote from: fillippone on April 21, 2021, 04:23:15 PM

Quote from: 20kevin20 on April 21, 2021, 06:00:36 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 21, 2021, 05:50:22 AM

Satoshi probably invented the most price-predictable asset?

I disagree. It's easy to predict there'll be a pump after halvings, but it's way too soon to say that the cycle repeats indefinitely. Perhaps other kind of global economical situations would break a streak of halving pumps. Moreover, the pumps after every halving seem to be lower and lower in % than previous ones - and as we advance through the trillions, it's gonna get even worse probably.

I mean, just look at all those previous price predictions by experts and how many times TA said we're entering winters and heavy crashes when exactly the opposite happened. In fact, I think Bitcoin is one of the most unpredictable assets!

I agree with you, 20kevin20, bitcoin is one of the most unpredictable assets!

It if weren't, it would have already popped to his "terminal" multimillion price.
The reality is the volatility in the prices is the opposite face of the same medal of the yield it generates.

I've got to disagree bigtime here. Since discovering Bitcoin nearly 10 years ago I've been absolutely amazed how every trading pattern is regularly followed to a T. I think it has been the most predictable asset to gauge future price of anything I've ever encountered. This is likely due to the movement being heavily influenced by traders seeking to profit from patterns that they then trade into existence. I think once people start adding ETFs to their 401Ks and the waves of money coming in are more regular and less influenced by market conditions, this will begin to change. I believe this is why leveraged traders have always gotten killed trading Bitcoin. They're used to those regular contributions pumping up the market and saving their longs while also inflating bad companies and exposing them to shorting opportunities and the Bitcoin market just hasn't matured to that stage yet.

fillippone

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Quote from: 20kevin20 on April 21, 2021, 06:00:36 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 21, 2021, 05:50:22 AM

Satoshi probably invented the most price-predictable asset?

I disagree. It's easy to predict there'll be a pump after halvings, but it's way too soon to say that the cycle repeats indefinitely. Perhaps other kind of global economical situations would break a streak of halving pumps. Moreover, the pumps after every halving seem to be lower and lower in % than previous ones - and as we advance through the trillions, it's gonna get even worse probably.

I mean, just look at all those previous price predictions by experts and how many times TA said we're entering winters and heavy crashes when exactly the opposite happened. In fact, I think Bitcoin is one of the most unpredictable assets!

I agree with you, 20kevin20, bitcoin is one of the most unpredictable assets!

It if weren't, it would have already popped to his "terminal" multimillion price.
The reality is the volatility in the prices is the opposite face of the same medal of the yield it generates.

hector3115

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I hope that their prediction will come true, but I'm still skeptical about it.

dkbit98

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I would not blindly follow any indicator or chart for Bitcoin because market is often times irrational and nobody knows when we are going to see new all time high.
Stock to Flow Model only showed what happened in past and what could happen in future but you should include other variables like NUPL and MVRV-Z and observe current situation in worlds economy.
One thing is sure, governments around the world increased money printing and inflation is going to hit hard sooner or later, meaning higher prices and higher cost of living.
Bitcoin is much better than fiat for many reasons, and sure it can go up to $100k or higher in next year but you should also expect that it can go down to $30k or $20k so don't panic if that happens.

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I can get on with tranthidung... All models break eventually, some more useful than others. Even the original stock to flow model was adjusted at least once already that I know of, probably going through a few more adjustments if PlanB would like it to remain relevant.

Never really been a fan myself. Prefer tobe as skeptical as possible and be happily surprised.

82k by May isn't so crazy though.

ultrloa

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Quote from: DeathAngel on April 21, 2021, 06:51:40 AM

PlanB is largely correct in everything he projects. Short term projections like 82k might not happen, I prefer to look at his end of cycle 288k prediction. I think that is definitely possible. 82k will happen but it could be June or July, the end of the bull cycle is when we’ll slice rapidly through price milestones.

Maybe we cannot fell that since we already experiencing some crazy market dumps for the past following days so maybe the best prediction we can provide is to reach back again at $60k, but we don't actually know if we can really see it at the month you mentioned but let see if there's a good hype released since we really need that to pump the bitcoin price up.

DeathAngel

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PlanB is largely correct in everything he projects. Short term projections like 82k might not happen, I prefer to look at his end of cycle 288k prediction. I think that is definitely possible. 82k will happen but it could be June or July, the end of the bull cycle is when we’ll slice rapidly through price milestones.

tranthidung

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Quote from: nikolastech on April 20, 2021, 11:10:20 AM

Stock to flow model actually been the most accurate of all models predicting BTC price last years, and it saying we going to 82k by May 2021:

That model make a forecast for Bitcoin price with each 4-years cycle. That's all about that model. Models basically will be built up by inclusive parameters. The best model will be the one the can give the most accuracy with the least inclusive parameters. Best models will be fitted with the Parsimony rule.

Unfortunately, all models are wrong as the famous statistician George Box said and PlanB emphasizes it in his personal website.

Quote from: odolvlobo on April 20, 2021, 03:09:07 PM

The stock-to-flow model is not accurate. People that promote the stock-to-flow model are cherry-picking the data. It has no ability to predict prices.

Many people distort what they use as tool to spread news, FUDs and create hype or panic on the market. Assume that the model is accurate generally, there are points real price and predicted values on the model are not fitted, and people skip those points in their statements.

There are 2 reasons:

They naively believe in the model and don't notice about those inaccurate points. Even if they see those points, they don't raise questions "WHY?"
They know those points, know reasons (that I doubt they don't) but intentionally skip it to say what they want to use on media.

Back to the S2F model, there are many parameters that have yet been included in the model. In the future, there are decisive parameters that we have yet known at the moment. Parsimonious rule does not mean future decisive parameters won't have big weights to be included in the model. If the model skips those parameters, it will become more seriously wrong.

20kevin20

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 21, 2021, 05:50:22 AM

Satoshi probably invented the most price-predictable asset?

I disagree. It's easy to predict there'll be a pump after halvings, but it's way too soon to say that the cycle repeats indefinitely. Perhaps other kind of global economical situations would break a streak of halving pumps. Moreover, the pumps after every halving seem to be lower and lower in % than previous ones - and as we advance through the trillions, it's gonna get even worse probably.

I mean, just look at all those previous price predictions by experts and how many times TA said we're entering winters and heavy crashes when exactly the opposite happened. In fact, I think Bitcoin is one of the most unpredictable assets!

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: fillippone on April 21, 2021, 03:16:07 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 21, 2021, 02:07:30 AM

Quote from: Baofeng on April 20, 2021, 04:39:36 PM

Yeah, I would say it's pretty much accurate modelling tool, but you have to look at it for long term and not for short term trading. In any case, read this thread by @fillippone - Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

Plus it’s very surreal that it follows the model very closely, because all that’s shown in that model should be priced in, and the market should behave differently. But it still follows it with precision.

PlanB gave an accurate explanation on why, market is not discounting future halving, as Micheal Saylor Is pretending market should, in his infamous “super cycle” thesis.

You can find in his “efficient market hypothesis” article.

That’s what I believed in and argued for before the Halving last year. I truly believed that it was priced in, and that Bitcoin will never surge after that event. I was obviously wrong. Cool

Quote

On the fact it closely follows the model, well, do you think bitcoin market is an efficient market not being manipulated?

Satoshi probably invented the most price-predictable asset?

fillippone

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 21, 2021, 02:07:30 AM

Quote from: Baofeng on April 20, 2021, 04:39:36 PM

Yeah, I would say it's pretty much accurate modelling tool, but you have to look at it for long term and not for short term trading. In any case, read this thread by @fillippone - Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

Plus it’s very surreal that it follows the model very closely, because all that’s shown in that model should be priced in, and the market should behave differently. But it still follows it with precision.

PlanB gave an accurate explanation on why, the market is not discounting future halving, as Micheal Saylor Is pretending the market should, in his infamous “supercycle” thesis.

You can find it in his “efficient market hypothesis” article.

On the fact it closely follows the model, well, do you think the bitcoin market is an efficient market not being manipulated?

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Baofeng on April 20, 2021, 04:39:36 PM

Yeah, I would say it's pretty much accurate modelling tool, but you have to look at it for long term and not for short term trading. In any case, read this thread by @fillippone - Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

Plus it’s very surreal that it follows the model very closely, because all that’s shown in that model should be priced in, and the market should behave differently. But it still follows it with precision.

Baofeng

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Yeah, I would say it's pretty much accurate modelling tool, but you have to look at it for long term and not for short term trading. In any case, read this thread by @fillippone - Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

aoluain

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Bitcoins price is woven around PlanB's STF model, meaning its over and under
the prediction on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, its not predicting the price at any
specific date, its a guide and remarkable as it is we have followed it to date.

Quote from: aoluain on April 08, 2021, 01:34:31 AM

https://digitalik.net/btc/#

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