Topic: Stop Calling It A Bubble. - page 3. (Read 3573 times)

Dr. Robert Shiller's checklist on how to predict if something is a bubble or not.


Now most of these points can be applied to bitcoins, almost 200% growth in the last few months. Dot-com was a bubble and it popped, and bitcoins are similar to it in terms of technological advancement, almost all technological breakthroughs in the past have caused a substantial impact on the market, no matter how small it was, but the whole concept of bitcoin is different. So is it a bubble? Yes and no. Obviously anyone would get a bit skeptical when a currency has such a tremendous growth in a very short period of time. But mass adoption can be logically applied as a reason behind it.

Being a currency, as far as the user base increases + the areas where bitcoins can be applied increases, it would be in demand, and would not just go out with a burst.

That is what I am afraid of. The expansion is abnormally fast and there is too much people going in and buy because they are scared that they might miss the ride "to the moon". It is the typical behavior in the formation of bubbles in the market. I am not saying I do not like it. I do, I am making money same as everyone. But we should not get out of control.


For once I agree with you 100%. I said the same thing in another thread and I got negative feedback.

Not with the hashrate increasing 13% every 2 weeks; it will continue to 5,000 USD by Jan 1 2018. August 1 starts bull run part 2...

i strongly disagree. what you are saying is only true about bitcoin not all the cryptocurrencies.
outside of here, if you ever get out in the real world, you can clearly see that a very limited number of people have ever heard about bitcoin and when it comes to altcoins nobody has ever heard about them! which menas the altcoins are the usual pump and dump. nothing new.

Nah, we can still say its a bubble because prices do really dip on a certain particular time which we can really say that we are still on a bubble but seeing on the news on whats ahead about adoption and acceptance of particular country or service.We would really love to see bitcoins price to go up without looking back on its previous prices but this thing is impossible.

It will be a bubble ESPECIALLY if institutional investors join the party. The growth of late has been simply unsustainable. If we got interest from an additional source beyond Japan and the subsequent FOMO buyers and newbies, we would go to 3500, then 1700. And Forbes would talk smack about bitcoin for at least 8 months.

A bubble implies a lasting and devastating crash is imminent. I don't think that is remotely in the realm of possibility so I would say no we are not in a bubble.

Of course every time there is a correction you'll see lots of people shouting crash, as they when it dropped for what, like one or two days, when it went from $2800 to <$2000 and then stabilized at $2200-2300 for a few days and then started moving up again and in less than two weeks as of today we were back hitting new all time highs. Ha, so much for that bubble pop!

We are seeing the start of the exponential expansion of bitcoin/cryptos towards mass market. We are nowhere near mass market, which is why calling it a bubble is laughable. Next year people are gonna be dying wishing they had bought bitcoin in now, and the same the following year, and so on. We are at the very start of that exponential growth. Yes there will be corrections along the way, short term corrections measured in hours, days, or weeks. A bubble pop suggests that it would at the very least take many months to build back up. We might hit another bubble, for example if bitcoin jumped up to $10k this year I would say that would likely be a bubble and I would expect a pop and a slow buildup back to the top to take a good part of a year. But simply doubling or tripling in value is not a bubble at this point, it is just bitcoin taking the first small steps into mass market adoption.

It's a bubble :p  same as 1200 bubbly...except this time it won't drop to 200 after it pops, happy?

It's not a bubble especially if some institutional investors decided to join the party, people think the rapid expansion of bitcoin and it's price value soaring up like a bull is a buble cause all of these years they've experienced the price of bitcoin soaring then all of a sudden went down can't really blame them if they think it that way but bitcoin has been innovating, expanding and gaining may supports we've just couldn't see it because we've been busy with the bitcoin scaling debate that we haven't realized that bitcoin has already matured from volatility. I guess the one's spreading the news that it's going to be a bubble is altcoin or gold investors.

With $9 to $29 fees for a single transaction?
WTF! Delusion in the face of a messed up reality is one very clear sign of a late stage bubble.

Cheers to all of the free minded people who used to LOVE Bitcoin:





Minecache, Your post does contain some real wisdom, IMO, but BTC has thousands of merchants who suddenly cannot accept it (due to huge fees), so let's talk about reality please?

Sometimes we can only identify the bubble after appearing and the rubble is sprinkled everywhere. I think we were up pretty fast. We will see in probably two years. Indeed this awaited Ascension bitcoin for all users

to the OP

bitcoin infrastructure:  meaning merchant adoption, business growth, user adoption is not a bubble

but if your only talking about the "market cap", then that is a bubble
the market cap is a empty wall with no substance holding it up.
there are not billions of dollar just sat in bank accounts to ensure the market cap value holds.

its like housing. even though the average house might value at say $280,000*.. this does not mean that a housing market of 16mill houses is worth
$4,48trill*.

the $4.48trill* market cap of housing is a housing bubble. because if everyone tried to sell their house for an average of $280,000* there is no real $$ to cover every purchase. if everyone tried to, the bubble would burst!!

so stop talking about 'market caps' as that's a meaningless bubble number.

if you care about real value. look for metrics like:
merchant adoption
user adoption
business utility
basically the real strengths of an economy, which all currently point to having bitcoin at the top and having good value and longevity.

again if talking about value do not mention 'market cap'

*number picked for demo purpose only, dont be anal and knit pick its inaccuracy

Exactly.

Most people I meet still don't even know what BTC is. When your plumber tells you to buy BTC it might be a bubble 

I don't think so that it's a disaster to call if fork is not done carefully and as I think why it happened, it's because we're gone through a challenging effect of supply and demand of bitcoins. Yeah that's affecting the entire blockchain network, that's why they've called it a bubble price; but actually it's not. Price really arise when demand also rises because of huge investments, particularly to those bigger whales putting up their wealth on digital currency with a huge ammounts of bitcoins.

If the scaling issue i not carried out carefully then it will be a disaster without a doubt and if the fork is not done carefully we might even have a clone and double chains and i really do not want to see those kind of grave changes that could affect the entire chain and would start a ripple effect.

Well we have to see what is MegaUpload 2.0 will be. I'm sure this can somewhat push the price of bitcoin, to what extend, I don't know. Japan has something to do if this is a bubble, as well as the South Koreans and the Chinese. This 3 nation have been trading and investing bitcoin like crazy. Let's just wait when is the next correction price happening(burst???). LOL.

I think the bubble effect is currently superior to people throwing money at Bitcoin This bubble will settle when the scaling debate settles too... This is my bet.


This is vaporware, he's been tweeting this like crazy and said that this is going to revolutionize Bitcoin, but he didn't even explain what whatever he's trying to launch will do. He has nothing to do with a price hike. Unless he's the whale buying all these coins

Personally, I don't think its a bubble. Maybe people are just trusting bitcoin more than ever that's why there is a panic buying. The dumping is very short lived, if its truly a bubble that has been burst, the price should go down as low as $1000, but we didn't get there because people started to buy again and stopping the dumping and now the price is increasing again.

lol, all told it is my bubble is different thinking by them as more and more users every year bitcoin will actually go to high prices and go up in stages

It's not a bubble but the signs are all there for a correction soon. Maybe back down to 2300 range with long term trends upward.