Strategic defeat for Russia? - page 2.

merchantofzeny

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Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

He should have just done this instead of invading, imho. Much more cost effective, like how he's propping that guy in Belarus. Just orchestrate a coup to get rid of Zelinsky and help install a more friendly president.

The invasion stirred nationalist sentiments in Ukraine and even if Putin do get rid of the Zelinsky administration, whatever government he's going to plop down is not going to be viewed as legitimate and would be constantly threatened by coups and rebellion.

be.open

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White Russian

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 21, 2022, 05:42:33 AM

If Europe can start importing natural gas from the US and elsewhere, it can boycott Russian energy. This is not an option until they can do this.

Europe has long since started importing liquefied natural gas, as required by its energy security strategy. However, Europe cannot completely refuse pipeline Russian gas today and will not be able even in a year or two. Populist calls by European politicians to "eat less meat", "reduce the temperature in residential buildings" and "save gasoline" may mitigate the problem of dependence on Russian gas, but do not solve it. Without Russian gas, Europe will freeze over next winter and this is not a figure of speech.

lumbanrang

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In fact, Putin could completely destroy Ukraine with their existing weapons, but Russia's goal from the start was only to teach lessons, not to destroy all of Ukraine.

Tash

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 21, 2022, 05:42:33 AM

Quote from: coolcoinz on March 20, 2022, 05:28:34 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:59 PM

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

It won't change much for Russia. When there's a seller, there's always a buyer. If not at this price, there will be at a lower one. Some countries will buy Russian Gas.

Eh, not necessarily. Iran and Venezuela both have difficulty selling their oil as both are heavily sanctioned by the US.

The problem currently is that Western countries heavily depend on Russian oil for their energy needs. If Europe can start importing natural gas from the US and elsewhere, it can boycott Russian energy. This is not an option until they can do this.

You do can "import" your daily water needs with a bucked instead of a pipeline. Maybe after a week or so you unterstand the difference.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: coolcoinz on March 20, 2022, 05:28:34 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:59 PM

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

It won't change much for Russia. When there's a seller, there's always a buyer. If not at this price, there will be at a lower one. Some countries will buy Russian Gas.

Eh, not necessarily. Iran and Venezuela both have difficulty selling their oil as both are heavily sanctioned by the US.

The problem currently is that Western countries heavily depend on Russian oil for their energy needs. If Europe can start importing natural gas from the US and elsewhere, it can boycott Russian energy. This is not an option until they can do this.

be.open

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White Russian

Quote from: DVlog on March 20, 2022, 09:21:35 PM

Russia is desperate to keep the EU under pressure to buy gas from him.

Now is not the best time to indulge in illusions. Europe needs Russian gas and this dependence will not be easy to overcome. And when this does happen, gas for Europe will be so expensive that a significant part of the industrial production of Europe will lose its competitiveness in the world market. Now Europe buys Russian gas at relatively low prices of long-term contracts, which lag behind the spot price by half a year. But to fill the storage by next winter, you will have to pay much more, and even worse, there simply aren’t enough volumes on the market, except for Russian gas. And there is nowhere for them to appear, such is the reality. Sanctions are a double-edged sword.

DVlog

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Quote from: coolcoinz on March 20, 2022, 05:28:34 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:59 PM

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

It won't change much for Russia. When there's a seller, there's always a buyer. If not at this price, there will be at a lower one. Some countries will buy Russian Gas. For instance, Orban said he's not going to stop trading with Russia because Hungary cannot afford it.
Many countries have voted to stop trading with Russia but they have contracts until the end of this year, so they will keep buying until 2023. I doubt the war will last that long. It will either end with Russia falling back after getting assurance from Ukraine that it won't join NATO (which it is already ready to give), or escalate to a war with the EU and NATO. This isn't too improbable because almost 50% Russians support the invasion of Ukraine and blame the EU for sanctions. Most supply chains from the EU to Ukraine go through Polish border. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin shot a few missiles towards the border which would be a direct attack that NATO might not let slide.

This could be true but no one wants to lose his best buyer and right now that is the EU. Russia is desperate to keep the EU under pressure to buy gas from him. Russia even played a political game in the middle east to hold the EU market by not letting Qatar build a gas pipeline to the EU. I could explain the whole scenario to you but that will only chuckle my comments you can follow this link to learn all about this pipeline politics.

PLayerZero14

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Russia greatly underestimated the ukrainian resistance they thought the capital kiev will fall under 96 hours, but still they're making progress everyday and i don't think the sanctions imposed by the US and the west are gonna stop them, it doesn't mean that their economy will not take a hit after the war tho.

coolcoinz

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:59 PM

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

It won't change much for Russia. When there's a seller, there's always a buyer. If not at this price, there will be at a lower one. Some countries will buy Russian Gas. For instance, Orban said he's not going to stop trading with Russia because Hungary cannot afford it.
Many countries have voted to stop trading with Russia but they have contracts until the end of this year, so they will keep buying until 2023. I doubt the war will last that long. It will either end with Russia falling back after getting assurance from Ukraine that it won't join NATO (which it is already ready to give), or escalate to a war with the EU and NATO. This isn't too improbable because almost 50% Russians support the invasion of Ukraine and blame the EU for sanctions. Most supply chains from the EU to Ukraine go through Polish border. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin shot a few missiles towards the border which would be a direct attack that NATO might not let slide.

af_newbie

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on March 20, 2022, 04:15:59 PM

Quote from: laredo7mm on March 19, 2022, 04:34:23 PM

It's for sure that Putin has no intention of largely holding Ukraine. Putin just wants to make sure that Ukraine stays away from NATO and Russia can supply gas to Europe without any transit fees. If he really wants to do something like he has done with Crimea then we could see Kyiv been pounded by thousands of missiles already. RF trying to keep civilian casualties as low as possible but still unwanted incidents happen in the war zone.

NATO was formed in order to collectively defend against Russia. Before the invasion, there was no realistic chance that Ukraine was going to join NATO. Provided that Ukraine is not occupied by Russia, it will be pushed to join NATO after the war is over.

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

Not only that. More importantly, what this invasion did to Ukraine is to culturally separate her from Russian culture, or more precisely from Soviet imperialism. It united Ukrainians of all ethnic and religious denominations, it crystalized Ukraine as a nation.

After this war, there will be a clear distinction between a Ukrainian Russian speaker and a Russian speaker in Russia, in how they view the world,
what human values they revere.

Ukraine will undergo ethnic cleansing in more than one way. It is a spiritual awakening of Ukraine as a nation.

There will be no reconciliation with Russia after this war.

This war will separate good from evil. Homo Sapiens on the left, Homo Sovieticus on the right.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: laredo7mm on March 19, 2022, 04:34:23 PM

It's for sure that Putin has no intention of largely holding Ukraine. Putin just wants to make sure that Ukraine stays away from NATO and Russia can supply gas to Europe without any transit fees. If he really wants to do something like he has done with Crimea then we could see Kyiv been pounded by thousands of missiles already. RF trying to keep civilian casualties as low as possible but still unwanted incidents happen in the war zone.

NATO was formed in order to collectively defend against Russia. Before the invasion, there was no realistic chance that Ukraine was going to join NATO. Provided that Ukraine is not occupied by Russia, it will be pushed to join NATO after the war is over.

The Russian invasion is Ukraine is likely to result in Russia being unable to supply gas to Europe, as Europe will be unwilling to buy Russian gas over the long term.

Ebede

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Quote from: laredo7mm on March 19, 2022, 04:34:23 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 03:16:23 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 02:58:40 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 02:46:22 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Yes, it is his plan. That is only if he is able to murder Zelenskyy. See the number of hit squads/mercenary groups that have attempted to assassinate him: https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/zelensky-has-survived-more-than-a-dozen-assassination-attempts-aide-says/

They can't be cheap, must serve a purpose eh?

Do you think Ukraine will become part of Russia? How else would you expect they be governed? If Zelenskyy survives, then no problem for Putin. He will murder enough citizens until a concession is forced from Ukraine. Either way, Putin will be in control of the Ukrainian government,

If he kills all Ukrainians who will remain in Ukraine, then sure, I agree, he will accomplish his ethnic cleansing plan.

I just don't know where he is going to get all the cannon fodder. I think when the number of killed Russian soldiers approach 200K
it will be the end of Putin's political career. Maybe even sooner. I would not be surprised if he does a false flag bombing on his own people
to justify martial law and the military draft.

I don't think he knows how to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. At least Hitler knew how to design concentration camps, but this
guy cannot find people who can coordinate an attack, perform military maneuvers, etc. his army has been taught WWII tactics.

At this point, it does not matter, if Zelensky lives or is assassinated. I think the opposition will be even stronger if he is assassinated, and
the western response will be harsher. His 'plan' will turn into a complete disaster, if it is not there already.

Give Ukrainians a martyr, and watch your back. No pro-Russian person will ever be safe in Ukraine after that.

It's for sure that Putin has no intention of largely holding Ukraine. Putin just wants to make sure that Ukraine stays away from NATO and Russia can supply gas to Europe without any transit fees. If he really wants to do something like he has done with Crimea then we could see Kyiv been pounded by thousands of missiles already. RF trying to keep civilian casualties as low as possible but still unwanted incidents happen in the war zone.

However, we should not underestimate Putin by saying he failed to coordinate his invasion. We should not forget that he is a former KGB agent which makes him a cold-blooded killer. He could have something else and bigger in mind that we can not imagine right now. Who knows he could attack Poland and Moldova too.

making Ukraine to stay away from NATO what will be the profit of Putin i think nobody have right to stop any country from joining organization, despite that the NATO of organization maybe is for supper country in European region I don't know but let Russian allow Ukraine to join

laredo7mm

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Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 03:16:23 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 02:58:40 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 02:46:22 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Yes, it is his plan. That is only if he is able to murder Zelenskyy. See the number of hit squads/mercenary groups that have attempted to assassinate him: https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/zelensky-has-survived-more-than-a-dozen-assassination-attempts-aide-says/

They can't be cheap, must serve a purpose eh?

Do you think Ukraine will become part of Russia? How else would you expect they be governed? If Zelenskyy survives, then no problem for Putin. He will murder enough citizens until a concession is forced from Ukraine. Either way, Putin will be in control of the Ukrainian government,

If he kills all Ukrainians who will remain in Ukraine, then sure, I agree, he will accomplish his ethnic cleansing plan.

I just don't know where he is going to get all the cannon fodder. I think when the number of killed Russian soldiers approach 200K
it will be the end of Putin's political career. Maybe even sooner. I would not be surprised if he does a false flag bombing on his own people
to justify martial law and the military draft.

I don't think he knows how to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. At least Hitler knew how to design concentration camps, but this
guy cannot find people who can coordinate an attack, perform military maneuvers, etc. his army has been taught WWII tactics.

At this point, it does not matter, if Zelensky lives or is assassinated. I think the opposition will be even stronger if he is assassinated, and
the western response will be harsher. His 'plan' will turn into a complete disaster, if it is not there already.

Give Ukrainians a martyr, and watch your back. No pro-Russian person will ever be safe in Ukraine after that.

It's for sure that Putin has no intention of largely holding Ukraine. Putin just wants to make sure that Ukraine stays away from NATO and Russia can supply gas to Europe without any transit fees. If he really wants to do something like he has done with Crimea then we could see Kyiv been pounded by thousands of missiles already. RF trying to keep civilian casualties as low as possible but still unwanted incidents happen in the war zone.

However, we should not underestimate Putin by saying he failed to coordinate his invasion. We should not forget that he is a former KGB agent which makes him a cold-blooded killer. He could have something else and bigger in mind that we can not imagine right now. Who knows he could attack Poland and Moldova too.

af_newbie

legendary

Activity: 2702

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Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 02:58:40 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 02:46:22 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Yes, it is his plan. That is only if he is able to murder Zelenskyy. See the number of hit squads/mercenary groups that have attempted to assassinate him: https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/zelensky-has-survived-more-than-a-dozen-assassination-attempts-aide-says/

They can't be cheap, must serve a purpose eh?

Do you think Ukraine will become part of Russia? How else would you expect they be governed? If Zelenskyy survives, then no problem for Putin. He will murder enough citizens until a concession is forced from Ukraine. Either way, Putin will be in control of the Ukrainian government,

If he kills all Ukrainians who will remain in Ukraine, then sure, I agree, he will accomplish his ethnic cleansing plan.

I just don't know where he is going to get all the cannon fodder. I think when the number of killed Russian soldiers approach 200K
it will be the end of Putin's political career. Maybe even sooner. I would not be surprised if he does a false flag bombing on his own people
to justify martial law and the military draft.

I don't think he knows how to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. At least Hitler knew how to design concentration camps, but this
guy cannot find people who can coordinate an attack, perform military maneuvers, etc. his army has been taught WWII tactics.

At this point, it does not matter, if Zelensky lives or is assassinated. I think the opposition will be even stronger if he is assassinated, and
the western response will be harsher. His 'plan' will turn into a complete disaster, if it is not there already.

Give Ukrainians a martyr, and watch your back. No pro-Russian person will ever be safe in Ukraine after that.

Gyfts

legendary

Activity: 2828

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Quote from: af_newbie on March 19, 2022, 02:46:22 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Yes, it is his plan. That is only if he is able to murder Zelenskyy. See the number of hit squads/mercenary groups that have attempted to assassinate him: https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/zelensky-has-survived-more-than-a-dozen-assassination-attempts-aide-says/

They can't be cheap, must serve a purpose eh?

Do you think Ukraine will become part of Russia? How else would you expect they be governed? If Zelenskyy survives, then no problem for Putin. He will murder enough citizens until a concession is forced from Ukraine. Either way, Putin will be in control of the Ukrainian government,

af_newbie

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 1468

Quote from: Gyfts on March 19, 2022, 10:27:54 AM

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

So that is the plan? LOL.

Hmm, you have no idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRls0WSW4c

Gyfts

legendary

Activity: 2828

Merit: 1515

Putin doesn't need to win the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will install a government that is pro-Russia. So the Ukrainian people will pledge loyalty to a puppet government, not him.

Take it as you will, as there is so much propaganda being thrown by actors culpable of stirring the pot, but here is Putin being cheered by a stadium of people in a recent public appearance: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1504821631675473922

Quite the contrast from the videos and clips of small groups of protestors that are being arrested by Russian police. The international community is on the same page against Russia, but as long as Putin can sustain confidence among his own people, I see no reason why Putin would withdraw from Ukraine.

DVlog

full member

Activity: 504

Merit: 212

Putin has misjudged Ukraine deeply so what was supposed to be a lightning strike overthrowing the Ukrainian government has turned into a lengthy siege. Meanwhile, the USA and Europe are imposing severe costs on Moscow so much so that Russia has suppressed Iran as the most sanctioned nation with record-breaking 5532 sanctions in total. There is no doubt that the Russian military might is so great but it failed in moral, logistics, and information war.

No one is eating Putin's justification for the war and thinking about who is the next hitlist of Putin. For sure Putin played the biggest strategic blunder of his life even if the Russian army were to win every battle and take every city Russia would still lose the war. winning the heart and mind of the people of Ukraine is an impossible task for Putin. After all no matter what it's a strategic defeat for Putin and Russia.

Topic: Strategic defeat for Russia? - page 2. (Read 406 times)