Topic: [Strategy of Dr.Bitcoin_Strange] BITCOIN'S SELL TO BUY MORE STRATEGY (Read 317 times)

firstly dont "leverage".. ever.. as thats the biggest gamble/risk taker method there is..

secondly.. never sell at a loss.. always sell when you profit.. then no risk because you are already at profit when you sell even if you cant buy back in... profit is profit

thirdly
you dont have to sell all your coins. you can still sell just some of them where individually they make profit from the individual coins purchase price in previous years, whilst hoarding the rest

and if the price correction doesnt reach a corection target that you want POST next ATH sell,  and you cant maximise accumulation. as long as you buy in at some price below the sell price in the correction you are again benefitting**.. or if never buying in again you still know you already made profit by selling at a profit
......
as for never buying back in post the profitable sell..
think about it. bank account interest 5% max
pension ~12% max
if you can make more then 21.5%-57.35% (compounded over 4 years). you are making more then other long term savings/pension plans
EG $42k bought this month, beings sold >$67.5k sell is 60% so selling above $67k in next 4 years is better then any bank/pension 4year compound interest. even if you dont buy back in

however wait for a multiplier of now or well over above last cycles high, to reach near next ATH you gain even more with a chance to buy more in post next ATH's correction


**EG
(numbers are not recommendations. purely for theory demonstration purposes.. you choose the numbers you feel safe with)
if you think next ATH can reach $140k and you sell 10% of stash at $120k conservatively
and you set a hopeful correction to $70k, even if correction only reaches $80k and you buy in at $90k to FOMO. you still gain by having 13.3% of stash back instead of 10% break even

..
other ways to mitigate missed chances and maximise accumulation

dont sell below last seasons high
set a sell % increments amounts.. of above last seasons high to what you believe next season(2025) high will reach

(numbers are not recommendations. purely for theory demonstration purposes.. you choose the numbers you feel safe with)
EG if you presume 2025 ATH peaks $145k target.. where you are willing to sell upto 50% total of stash
$115k:2%  $120k:4%     $125k:6%  $130k:9%   $135k:13%  $140k:16%

then set to re-buy in on the correction if you presume 2026 $80k correction bottom target
$110k:2%  $105k:4%     $100k:6%  $95k:9%   $90k:13%  $85k:16%

(numbers are not recommendations. purely for theory demonstration purposes.. you choose the numbers you feel safe with)

demo math calculated
imagining you had 20BTC and willing to sell just 10btc(50%)
$115k:0.4($46k)  $120k:0.8($92k)     $125k:1.2($150k)  $130k:1.8($234k)   $135k:2.6(351k)  $140k:3.2($448k)
totalling 10btc sold for total $1.321m
on correction
$110k:$46k(0.42)  $105k:$92k(0.87btc)   $100k:$150k(1.5)  $95k:$234k(2.46)   $90k:$351k(3.9)  $85k:$448k(5.27)

totalling 14.42btc bought for $1.321m

It's nice to see you come up with something good for yourself Dr.Bitcoin_Strange, this could be something many of us could as well leverage on to build our individual portfolios upon and adopt if we think it's something good for us to start as well, but in every first attempt, we must never forget to take the caution on risk involved because there's no strategy that we can ever adopt that has no risk, this means that we can actually starts from somewhere, using various suggestions you have laid down like buying the dip and holding, DCAing and many other possible ways we feels good to start with, all i could say is that you should keep it up, this may be the exact solution someone needs to apply for his own portfolio.

you still accumulate even if you dont quite hit exact tip of high or lows
imagine having 10btc in 2012
2013 top  $1200 (gets you $10k if selling just before or after peak at say ~$1k)
2014 bottom $130 (gets you 50btc if buying just before or after correction bottom  at say ~$200)


so now having 50btc in 2014-16
2017 top  $20,000 (gets you $900k if selling just before or after peak at say ~$18k)
2018 bottom $3,700 (gets you 200btc if buying just before or after correction bottom  at say ~$4.5k)

so now having 200btc in 2018-22
2021 top  $70,000 (gets you $12m if selling just before or after peak at say ~$60k)
2022 bottom $15,700 (gets you 700btc if buying just before or after correction bottom  at say ~$17.5k)

so now having 700btc in 2024 instead of just 10 in 2012

This is a very good strategy and I believe that this is what most people that claim to be long term holders are always doing on every four years circle, to take profit by selling in the bull run and buy back at the bearish season.

One thing that I don't like about this strategy is that, you will make profit but you will not be able to buy back the same amount of bitcoin you sold at the price that you bought it initially before selling because the price must be higher that the previous circle dip.

Another disadvantage is that, you might end up using the money to solve other emergencies that occur after sales before you buy back. Lastly, you will miss the compounding profit that you are suppose to benefit from, assuming you could hodli for two or more circle because the price at the initial time that you started your bitcoin investment might have risen 100×. Selling bitcoin for fiat is not advisable at this time of high inflation.

its known by many names depending on technique

to take a loan to then sell those shares and then buy back in when the price dips is leveraged/margin shorting
to just use coins/shares you already have is what some call "bed and breakfast" shorting (standard shorting, opposite of long)
to just buy more at lower price to add more accumulated coins but making average of whole hoard less is averaging down

there are many other names for other strategies. but when trade-fi influencers/institutions promote "shorting" they want to only promote the loaning process as they make money whether if the borrower loses or wins. they dont make money if they are not involved, so they dont promote shorting techniques that dont involve them (independent investor selling his own coin to rebuy at lower price)

From what I have observed so far, right from when I started my crypto journey, those terms are mostly used by short-term traders, most especially futures or derivatives traders. But I wish there were other terms that better befit the strategy I talked about since it's still a long-term investment and not just shorting or going long for a short-term profit. (Don't forget you will still have to buy and hold for some years.)


Yeah, you are right; the bottom of circle 2 was around $3k+ and did not go below the high of circle 1, which was $1k+. But for the second statement, I think your calculation was wrong.

The bottom of circle 3 was around $15k+ (November 2022), while the high of circle 2 was around $19k,which means that the bottom of circle 3 actually went below the high of circle 2, although it might not be the same trend this time.

Since the high of circle 3 was $65k+ and the bottom was $15k, if the all-time high of this next bull run becomes $120k, is there any certainty that it could not go below $65k when the bottom comes either in 2026 or 2027? (It could still possibly go below that high.).

Probably someone who sold at their target price starting from $100k to $120k can still buy in the range of $70k down.(If the price slid down below high of circle 3).

at 6% rate annually(JJG strategy) =0.5% monthly withdrawal lumps

this means if price 4 years ago was say $10k you would be selling
A. at $13.3k-$16.6k 1% of stash a month (2lumps)
B. at $16.6k-$20k 2% of stash a month
C. at $20k-$30k 3% of stash month
D. at $30k-$50k 6% of stash a month(12 lumps)
E. at $50k-$75k 12% of stash a month
F. at $75k-$100k 18% of stash a month
G. at $100k-$150k 24% of stash a month
H. at $150k+ 30% of stash a month

if market price remains in 30k-50k(D) this jan 2024-april 2025.. your stash would be gone and you would have sold out 100% before the 2025 ATH even hits

You only can hold your bitcoins if you have money to use because you can not use bitcoin to pay everything in life at least in 2024 with current Bitcoin adoption.

If you don't have other money types like stable coin, digital fiat currency or cash, you will have to sell your bitcoin even when you don't want to sell it.

So the bottom line is have your fund reserve with one of reserve is not in bitcoin.

Withdrawal strategy
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

I plan to take profit when Bitcoin has about 30% increase within a few days or weeks, I will sell part of my bitcoin to get cash. Use one of it to add in my reserve and wait for correction to buy in.

DCA
Dollar Cost Averaging with costavg.com include exchange fee
https://costavg.com/

This ideal is absolutely good; here, dca or any other investment method isn't disputed, but the whole new ideal is being initiated, though it is not new to me because I have probably made mention of it in another discussion or heard of it several times in other discussions.

From my little experience in life, I have seen scenarios where this method can be applied. For instance, a cousin of mine is a contract manager, and his job doesn't come steadily, so this method will surely profit him if he is a Bitcoiner or an investor.

Perhaps if he has a stash of Bitcoin that was bought as a result of DCA or lump sum while he was still in contract and now that he is out of contract, he could be using the OP's accumulation strategy to increase his stash now that he is out of contract while waiting for another job. So this ideal is a win-win ideal if properly applied as Dr. B.S. specified above.

current mining economics of value premium acquisition costs put this part of 2024 at $25k-$140k window of speculation between ultimate support and ultimate resistance right now (and thats based on actual math of mining cost)
so $140k is an achievable max(just).. where as $200k if hashrate stays same is not achievable today of there was a FOMO/HYPE moment

all those claiming $500k by 2025 ATH would only be correct if the mining economics 3x in the next 18 months

so safe bet is the $140k limit(based on math of planets mining cost premium)

This actually makes sense. Yes, 50 % from the top is good bet without any other tools to estimate tops and bottom. I think $140,000 is conservative for the top.

patterns only work until everyone sees the pattern then people bet against or plan early to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern

however
expecting a $50k(lucky few if any) after 2025 ATH is stretching things a bit too far below previous ATH of $70k
a SAFE bet would be to treat $70k(opportunity for masses) as bottom rather then waiting and hoping to see $50k, because it might not get to $50k

remember the social and speculation of most:
being online, available, cash deposited and ready to press button and able to precisely decide "now is the time" and pick the exact bottom of $50k instead of wishful thinking "but what if it went to $48k.. ill wait a bit longer.. "and then mis out completely

I have gone through the whole thread and I believe the strategy that you have presented in your thread is a quite useful and working strategy. That's the strategy which I have been following for quite some time with my own take and it has been profitable for me so far. But, you'll have to understand that we can't really predict with 100% accuracy that what's going to be Bitcoin's ATH in a bull run. I know that most of us have our own speculations and predictions but those aren't 100% correct.

Let's say if most of the people predicted that Bitcoin would reach $120k during this bull run's peak and some of them predicted that it will reach $150k, then it's better to avoid both of those predictions and set 20% less than $120k as your first selling target for 25% of your holdings and 20% less than $150k as your 2nd selling target for other 25% of holdings.

In this case $96K is the price for first target to sell 25% of your holdings and  $120k is the 2nd target to sell 25% of your holdings, I know that Bitcoin has chance to go up to $120k or $150k or even more than that during this bull run but we need to set good selling targets that are highly achievable.

I would also suggest you to never sell all of your Bitcoin holdings even if you're 100% sure that Bitcoin's price can drop after the bull run. I would say only sell 50% of it at maximum and 25% at minimum. That way you won't be without Bitcoin even if in the next bear market Bitcoin's value doesn't drop below $96k.

I think in the last cycle price dipped to 16.6k lower than 19.5k (prev cycle's high) But the one before (2016-2020) yes the correction is higher than the prev. all time high. I guess you can never really assign a pattern to these things.

He's not really talking about percentages, rather the actual prices.

The price went down almost 75 % from the top to the bottom the last cycle and in the previous one, it went down 87 %.

by the way
every market cycle has shown that cycle #2's low doesnt go below cycle #1's high

so if you are expecting 2025 ATH to go to 100k.. you will be let down if you then wait for the correction back to $50k.. because it wont go back down that low

actual real world math of the real economy of bitcoin acquisition costs has a speculative window of possibility of $25k-$140k this year

if you had said sell at $140k 2025 ATH.. and bought at $70k post 2025 ATH high's correction(new bottom). you might have a chance to maximise your short

It is grammar.

No, shorting is a very precise trading term. If you sell, you sell, that has nothing to do with shorting.
Yes, with crypto the only way to short is doing it with a contract, like futures. Shorting requires borrowing in fact if you pay fees to short a coin.

Please check online the definition of the term.

Selling high and buying when the market deeps is simply trading and what any trader should do, lol. What do you suggest buying at the top and selling at the bottom instead?

This kind of discussion will come at the time of the peak and you may yet to witness that in the forum so you feel people are not aware of it. The strategy you shared was probably discussed in a few hundred threads in multiple boards of Bitcoin so it isn't really a special strategy but an effective one as you said if one who successfully pulls their moves at the right time which is market peaks and bottomed down.


HODLing is what most of the early investors follow because they know that simply holding it is enough to bring returns that is not possible in any other kind of investment so why take the risk of buying/selling and then buying again at the next cycle.

To think that I have not thought about this strategy will be me telling lies. I have my fears however, the fact that the time of the sell is not determined by the peak of the market but by your analysis gives me a thing to worry about. What if you sell and the price keeps appreciating?
When you sell, you can not tell for how long it will hold before the bears take over, what if life happens and you have to use the resurces thinking it will be refunded before the bear season sets in.

Too mny variables just keesps me away from deploying this strategy.

short is opposite to long... [grammer, logic, physics]

people are not required to obtain extra coin to short if they already have coin
those who already have coin can short their own coin(no borrowing required)

only those without coin need to obtain(borrow) coin to short

you can short without leverage thus not need to use futures contracts..
futures contracts are just the contracts for the borrowers to borrow under contracts..

shorting and futures are different things.

i have hoards of coins myself so dont need to borrow but i can short my own hoard just by selling on spot market, waiting for the correction and buying in cheaper

shorting is not dependant on borrowing. but if you dont have coin upfront to perform a short THEN you need to borrow coin to perform a short

No, shorting is when you bet against an asset and you "borrow" (virtually on the exchange using a perpetual contract for example) at a given price and then pay back the virtual loan later. If the price goes down you make money because you now pay a lower price for what you borrowed and you cash in the difference.  You lose money if the price goes up though. It is quite different from what you describe. You need a future contract to do shorting. Also averaging down has nothing to do with shorting. Maybe you should learn trading terminology before telling others what it is.

its called "averaging down" or "shorting"

buy the dip and hold or buy low sell high="going long"
sell the high buy the correction="shorting"

also if you look more into your "little recap of 3 cycles"
you will notice the bottom of cycle 2 did not drop below high of cycle 1
you will notice the bottom of cycle 3 did not drop below high of cycle 2

so when you use an example of time sell of upto $100k. (then corrects) then buy above $50k..
you might want to aim your target at sell upto/above $140k  (then corrects) then buy above $70k

Reserve

Abstract

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How about considering the "sell to buy more strategy?"

This is just a common strategy where you have to sell your bitcoin bit by bit during the peak of every bull market. From history, the peak bull market usually takes place the year after Bitcoin halved. So, what is implied by this strategy is to sell your formal hold during the bull market, then buy back during the bear market. The bear market will surely come after the bull market. Read further, and you will see the risk attached, the reason for the strategy, and how to go about it.

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This strategy could be what another Bitcoiner might have practiced or is actually planning to do too, but I have been on this forum for a year and three months now, and I have not actually come across people talking relatively to this type of Bitcoin investment idea more often, probably because they think it's not worth it or because it's just nothing special.

If not many, I have seen at least two old members of this forum whose comments stated that they have been holding their bitcoin for more than 8–10 years now and have not sold any bitcoin from their holding. while, the price of bitcoin has been going up during every bull market and falling again during the bear market.

There is this phrase, buy the dip and hold, which refers to buying Bitcoin at a low price or at a price you (the investor) consider to be the bottom or cheap. After buying the dip, you must also be willing to hold the investment until a bull market occurs. (Buying the dip and holding it for a long time until it generates a huge profit is a profitable means of investing in Bitcoin.)

It's normal to invest in Bitcoin and hold it for as many years as you want, and while holding, you can still invest more using the DCA method, but the strategy I want to discuss is also simple and will be profitable if properly managed.

Bitcoin is known to have two seasons, which are the bear and bull seasons. The bull season usually starts in the year of the bitcoin halving or the year after the halving. Looking at the price history of Bitcoin, the price usually experiences a sharp fall in price after the bull market is over, and if perhaps you sold your Bitcoin during the bull market, you can hold your money (fiat) and wait for the bear market, which gives rise to a sharp fall in the Bitcoin price. Then you can buy more bitcoin, which is more than the number or fraction that you sold in the bull market.

A Little Recap of The 3 Circles of Bitcoin Halving

The first Bitcoin halving happened in 2012; from price history, through out that year, Bitcoin traded just around the price range of $4.7–$16, but in 2013, the bull market kicked in and Bitcoin spiked above $1000 for the first time. The bear market started in 2014, as the price dropped to $320.19 at the close of the year.

The second halving took place in 2016, as the starting price for that year was $400+, but in 2017, the price spiked again, and for the first time, Bitcoin got to $19k+ around December of that year. In 2018, in the month of December, bitcoin dropped to about $3,100 (a bear market too).

Third halving of Bitcoin is what many people already knew about. After the halving took place in 2020, during 2021 the bull market started and Bitcoin got to $68k, but we all know the story after then till now.

Why do I think it's wise and can be profitable to apply Bitcoin's sell-to-buy-more strategy?

• Because Bitcoin will definitely experience a bear market after every bull market.
• Because if you manage the strategy well, you will increase your holding.
• Because Bitcoin is a volatile asset, the price must definitely swing up and down.
• Because the three experienced Bitcoin halving has proven that the bear and bull markets are always certain.

Possible risk involved in this strategy.

• Bitcoin is a volatile asset, and its predicted price is not usually very accurate.
• You will not accurately know what the ATH (peak) will be during the bull market.
• You will not know what the bottom price will be during a bear market.
• While holding a fiat and waiting for a bear market, the fiat could devalue. Secondly, fiat is a centralized currency; just hope nothing gets complicated on the smart contract while holding a huge sum of it in your wallet.

How to go about this strategy:

Step 1= First, if you invest in Bitcoin, read about the price speculation of other people and price discussions on the forum, and also make your own assumptions about the price that you are expecting during the bull market.

Step 2= Set out 2–3 target prices for which you will like to sell your bitcoin, and when the bull market starts, sell in different fractions as you earlier set your target price(Note: don't sell all your bitcoin at once). After you have sold, patiently hold on to your fiat. While doing so, also be active in discussions relating to price, then make your prediction and also set a price target that you would love to buy. Note: don't buy with all your fiat at once, DCA should be applied. Reason why you must not invest all fait at once is because price might still dip more.

If you sell high at the bull market and buy low at the bear market, you stand the chance to have increased your holding.

For example, if you bought 1 bitcoin for $16k in the month of January 2023 and you are still holding it now, you are already on profit. Keep holding. Perhaps you hold until the peak bull market starts this year or towards the end of next year, and maybe the price of bitcoin gets to $80k, $90k, and $100k+, respectively, and progressively. After selling your Bitcoin at those said price, your total asset becomes $100k or more, and you hold that money till 2026 when the bear market will start again (and perhaps the price drops to $60k, $50k, and $40k, respectively,) you will be able to buy more that the 1 Bitcoin you bought.

If you buy one bitcoin at $16k and sell it at $100k, then the price drops to $50k and you re-buy it again, spending $100k, that amount will buy you an extra one bitcoin, making it possible for you to own two bitcoins rather than the one you were holding. That's what I call "sell to buy more strategy. "