Topic: [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy (Read 1849 times)

It is good that we attempt to air out these kinds of concerns, and even if there might be some practices that are objectively better than others, there can also be some competing kinds of personal factors that any member might either have difficulties articulating or don't want to specify certain granular levels of some finances and/or psychological factors that are contributing to their portfolio management and where they might want to be at certain points in their lives.

Surely there can be guys that miscalculate in both directions in terms of dying with too much capital or overspending their capital, so they outlive their portfolio - there can be some subjectivity in terms of where any of us might want to be, yet sometimes the mistakes cannot really be known or realized until 10 or 20 years down the road (whether that is overspending or underspending), and by the time, the mistake(s) are realized, the clock cannot be turned back to "do over."

Many of us likely know people who are living in struggles based on their levels of over-consumption during their younger years when they should have had been stacking away a bit more capital to provide themselves a buffer for their elderly times, since many folks will lose several of their abilities to perform manual labor as early as into their 50s, yet it gets more and more challenging, even though there are some old farts who are ready, willing and able to physically keep up with the younger whimper-snappers.  Guys might be able to continue to perform work that is less physical and more mental in nature, to the extent to which their ideas are still marketable or that they might be in positions of influence within their respective organizations, yet abilities to continue in income generating work may not even be within the control of such person who is becoming more elderly, so if he has not promoted towards the top of his organization, he might find himself with job insecurity in his 50s and 60s and with difficulties finding lucrative and/or satisfying work in those elderly years, so would ONLY have options to say fuck you to those demotions in status (and/or pay) by having had made sure that he has sufficiently built and maintained an investment portfolio rather than spending too much of it too soon (merely because he wanted to "have fun" in his younger years).


Let's say that a person (I am going to use a western life-style example) had believed that his entry-level fuck you status was $1 million prior to 2020 (which would be being able to withdraw at $3,333 per month under traditional 4% withdrawal levels), and after 2020, he adjusted upwardly his entry-level fuck you status to $2 million after 2020 based on seemingly obvious monetary debasement happenings around that time (so that doubling/updated level would be being able to withdraw at $6,666 per month under traditional 4% withdrawal levels).  If the guy had thought that he was making progress towards reaching such status right around the beginning of 2020 (since the goal was ONLY $1million rather than $2million), he still might have some sense of confidence based on his understanding of the soundness of BTC as a money, so maybe by early 2020 he has ONLY gotten to 50 BTC, and so therefore he feels that he has to keep stacking BTC - since in early 2020, 50 BTC would ONLY be worth about $250k at the 200-WMA, and $350k at the then BTC spot prices.

So, he keeps stacking sats and keeping his head down.  Maybe he could be in his 30s, 40s or 50s, and I am not sure if the age matters so much, except that Bitmover suggests that he is going to be getting much more pleasures out of spending some of his money if he is younger, yet still from my own perspective, it would be potentially problematic to start spending from the 50 BTC too soon, yet also with bitcoin, we likely realize that it has tended to appreciate in value faster than other assets, so even if the guy decides to stop stacking BTC in early 2020, and he feels that 50 BTC is enough, he still could start living better off of whatever other income that he has, since he is no longer having to put away 10% into bitcoin, and instead he has given himself a 10% spending raise by his deciding to spend from his income rather than continuing to put that extra value into BTC, and he may well even be optimistic that the 50 BTC is going to have good chances of appreciating in value sufficiently enough in the next 2-5 years that 50 BTC will be enough or more than enough.. but still he has to decide within the timeline of early 2020, and he is not really going to know for sure.

And so if he considers that he could stack away an additional $200 per week for the next 5-ish years, or he could have that $200 per week for spending on his life-enjoyment matters, and we ONLY end up seeing in retrospect how that additional $200 per week would have had performed by continuing to invest into bitcoin.  In retrospect, we can see that an investment of $200 per week for the past 5 years would have caused the guy to invest an additional $52.25k into bitcoin, and would have had gotten such guy about an additional 2.25 BTC, so instead of having 50 BTC, he would have 52.25 BTC right now, which is right around a 4.5% increase in the size of his BTC, yet much more of an increase in the value of the BTC, as compared with the amount that he put in.

In any event, this guy really might be at a point of having had not ONLY accumulated enough, but getting to a sense of feeling that he has accumulated way more than enough which is a real improvement of his today status as compared to his early 2020 status, and no matter how he calculates the value of his current BTC stash and how he is going to start to withdraw from it, he finds himself in a status of overabundance and likely able to spend even beyond his earlier expectations and his BTC value will likely continue to grow, even if he is ONLY planning to spend from the BTC's appreciation rather than feeling any kind of a need to spend to deplete its principle.

Look at it.  Currently, 52.25 BTC gets a guy to a 200-WMA valuation of $2.2 million and a BTC spot price valuation of $4.8 million, and even withdrawing conservatively with a 4% withdrawal rate, he could withdraw around 0.175 BTC per month (which is about $16k per month.. which is nearly 3x his goal of $6,666 per month), and several times I had suggested that he could potentially start to withdraw at up to 10% (so long as he is taking some other precautions of making sure that the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA and some other potential precautions of withdrawing based on the 200-WMA dollar value rather than strictly withdrawing based on the BTC quantity.

Withdrawing 10% annual based on the BTC quantity would allow right around 0.435 BTC withdrawn per month, which is currently right around $40k per month.. which surely is right around 6x higher than the earlier aspirational amounts of $6,666 per month.

Even though the tool does not quite show how to calculate the dollar valuation from a 10% withdrawal rate, I will quickly describe that the rate would be slightly less than basing the withdrawal rate on the BTC quantity, so since the 200-WMA of 52.25 BTC shows $2.2 million valuation, we could multiply that amount by 10% and we get $220k annual, and then if we divide that by 12 months, then we get a $18,333 monthly withdrawal rate which is less than half of what would have been allowed when using the BTC quantity as the tool does, so at some point we might need to fix those calculations in the tool, since I think using the dollar valuation based on the 200-WMA is a more sustainable and conservative approach, even though in back-testing the tool, the 10% rate based on the BTC valuation and the various downward adjustments in the tool that start to kick in once the BTC spot price is lower than 25% above the 200-WMA, even the 10% withdrawal rate has been back-tested to have had been sustainable - while at the same time, many of us likely recognize and appreciate that past performance does not guarantee future results, so in that sense, we still may well want to aim towards making sure that we are not overly depleting our BTC stash during BTC spot price dippening periods.


Sure.  There are some other assets that have outperformed bitcoin, and likely will have periods of outperforming bitcoin in the future, yet I doubt that it is a good idea to be pumping those other assets in a bitcoin thread, and I am not even sure that we can really figure out how to have confidence (in broad-scale kinds of ways) that any other assets are worthy of diversifying into, even though surely I am not even opposed to the idea of having some diversification in our various assets besides how we are managing bitcoin and/or dollars (or other fiat that we might have in our country or our bills are denominated in).  

In front of us it seems that we have (and have been having and likely to continue to have) one of the greatest (if not the greatest) wealth transfers in the history of mankind from no coiners to coiners, so I see no reason to get too distracted into other possible assets that might possibly exceed bitcoin's performance in short-term kinds of ways.

Sure in bitcoin we have some enthusiasts who are gobbling up a lot of the bitcoin, yet we have an overwhelming majority of the world's population, no matter if we are referring to individuals, institutions and/or governments who are way underallocated to bitcoin by being either no coiners or low coiners relative to their wealth.

Bitcoin seems to continue to be where to be, even if we cannot exactly know the future, yet bitcoin still seems to be a quite lopsided asymmetric bet to the upside.. that we can figure out our allocation and figure out how much of it to hold and figure out to what extent we want to start to live off of it to the extent that we may or may not have enough of it to really justify transitioning from accumulation stage to maintenance stage and then potentially prematurely putting ourselves in liquidation phase.. which yeah, guys surely not going to be correct in their decisions, even if they might have had advantages of having had been able to accumulate bitcoin for many years as compared to folks who are more recently coming into bitcoin.


Personally, I think that is the sweet spot that most of us should be attempting to be finding, and surely not all of us are going to end up coming to the correct conclusions in terms of how to make sure that we balance these matters well, even in terms of our knowing our own circumstances way better than others know our circumstances, we still may end up coming to conclusions that end up NOT being correctly tailored to our future self- whether that is 5-10 years down the road or some further out timeline.


Over the years, I have been in plenty of these kinds of forum conversations that attempt to figure out what level of wealth might constitute fuck you status versus something like filthy rich status, and perhaps if there might exist some other kinds of motivations (like status and/or control) that might motivate folks who seem to have even gone beyond fuck you status into filthy rich status and even multiples of filthy rich status.

For western-life style, currently, I am considering $2 million as entry-level fuck you status and $100 million as entry-level filthy rich status.  Surely folks will have differing assessments regarding those levels, that could be adjusted upwardly or downwardly based on geography and even sometimes a younger person might aspire to have a higher cushion or even consider himself/herself to still be actively growing his/her wealth based on higher levels of energy based on age/health types of considerations.


It does seem to be a bit of a stretch to presume that die on zero has to be a self-centered type of an assessment - even though, it could well be the case if someone with a die on zero kind of a mentality might end up having to be more self-centered with his aspirations if he ends up spending way too much too soon... yet it is also difficult to generalize where any particular person might end up or if he might have ended up miscalculating how to exhaust his wealth without contributing to him having way too much stress in his more elderly years based on having had spent too much too soon.


There are billions of people, and an overwhelming majority (perhaps 95% or more - kind of guessing out of my ass on this one) never even come close to reaching entry-level fuck you status, even if they might end up wrongly presuming themselves to having had gotten to such a status... and entry-level fuck you status merely suggests an ability to completely live off of your investments and not having to work or count on various kinds of government or private sector benefits that might dry up.  

Surely, some value can be attached to any income that normies get from government benefits and/or pensions, yet there should also be an attempt to account for the possibility that some of those kinds of benefits could completely dry up and they do tend to not keep up very well with the debasement of the dollar (or other fiat debasement that has historically tended to vary through time and from region to region)... and surely there are some folks who have ended up being able to live a fairly dignified elderly time with government benefits and/or other privatized benefits that were able to sustain them within their aspired standard of living circumstances.   

We have also discussed that some poor folks might not have a lot of financial investment kinds of opportunities (whether bitcoin or otherwise), so historically, they may well end up contributing to their own old-age life security, sustenance and meaning by investing into their off-spring who are able to ensure the financial and psychological well-being of the elder in their older years, which also might end up being all that any normal person might want to have when they are in their last decade or so of life.


I am a bit confused why you are bringing up McGregor and/or Madonna since they seem to be examples of folks who achieved such great levels of networth that even if they might employ an over-exuberant lifestyle, they have gotten to a place in which it becomes quite difficult to spend the quantity of money (wealth) that they had accumulated.  Maybe you guys are mentioning those two for those kinds of illustrations, yet for me they seem to be quite atypical kinds of cases that don't really say too much of anything in regards to more likely grapplings that an overwhelming majority of normies have to figure out and strive to get success within their own talent (and/or luck) circumstances.

It's not really necessary to reach him because there is simply no point. Okay, you became a billionaire (1 Billion), why the hell do you need to become the owner of 147 billion dollars? I believe that one billion is more than enough to fulfill every dream that human has (I don't mean dreams like owning a bank like JP Morgan, I mean dreams like private jet, yacht and so on).
Also, we don't need to put limit on ourselves. You won't reach is a bad approach to my mind.

I think that when people talk abotu die with zero, they mean a selfish human being, who spent every money for himself instead of taking care of family members and relatives. In this case, what you said above, you are absolutely right.

No, it doesn't seem hard to believe because there are billions of people and the chance of someone being very unusual is very high. By the way, I wouldn't call bullshit to things that you mean in this conversation. It's not bullshit to buy latest model of iPhone, Lamborghini, Rolex watch, etc.
Yes, in many cases they end up like McGregor and Maradona, that's true too and it hurts me to see talents ruining their life this way. I'm glad Messi and Ronaldo didn't follow their path. These guys are role models for many people (there is also a place for Elon Musk).

Well, regarding bitmover I think it's clear that we have a different vision of how things are and it's not worth going deeper into our differences.


That's right.

 

Yes, I also know people with a lot of money and spending more to die with nothing, they don't even think about it. Of course we are not going to blame them for it, just like we are not going to blame bitmover or others for doing with their money what they want.


Not only bitcoin holdings, that can happen in general with investments but obviously to the regulars of this forum the most normal thing is that our main source of wealth in the future will be bitcoin. But the fact that our wealth continues to grow means that we will be able to spend more and more, as well as invest and donate more if we want to, while not killing the goose that lays the golden eggs, but letting it get bigger and bigger. And if we are lucky, with increasing institutional and state adoption in the next few years, our holdings can appreciate quite a bit.

I agree that it is quite likely that the bitcoin stash will continue to grow, even with a 4% withdrawal rate, yet sometimes folks can become a bit concerned about whether they have enough of an investment stash to sustain themselves from the income (or the value preservation) of their investment stash, once they have already pulled the fuck you lever.

It seems to me that many people are conservative because they don't want to overly spend from their principle, until such a time that they are ready, so they might even keep some additional amounts of principle just to have insurance for unexpected events (expenses) that might end up coming in their direction, and perhaps I am somewhat concerned about your assumption that we cannot accomplish both things  - such as being able to live quite well, and still be able to hold principle in tact.. and maybe it could be that if we spend several years living in a FIRE kind of a way, and if our investment is still growing, then we may well find it justifiable to increase our spending amount, whether we make incremental upwards adjustment in our withdrawal amounts (I am a pretty BIG fan of incrementalistic changes) or if we might decide that we can make some BIG purchases in order to bring out overall portfolio size down to less of an overly abundance level.

Each of us is in charge of figuring how what rises to the level of abundance or over abundance and the extent to which we might want to shave our investment portfolio size down.

I will say that I know people who live quite well, and they have multiples (if not magnitudes) more than the amount that they need for completely living off of the income from their investments, so surely there sometimes could be challenges to figure out what kinds of ways to spend more money, and I am not necessarily going to blame them for doing something wrong merely because they have wealth levels that go way beyond their income needs (or lifestyle needs).   It seems that holding a decent amount of value in bitcoin can contribute to such actual overabundance, since many of us may well employ conservative spending styles in accordance with traditional investment portfolio management, but then find that our bitcoin holdings are appreciating in value way faster than we are able to spend it.

With 4% annual withdrawal,  you will die will all your life savings intact. This is too conservative imo.

I have lived all my life in accumulation phase with zero withdrawals.. However,  I have reached a point where i already changed to another job which I am working less , but i accumulate less as well. But I am close to decide to move to a withdrawal phase. Finally FIRE.

Most of that thanks to bitcoin .

I am engaging in different approaches now to spend money. It is hard to spend money (not just in bullshit like poker player said).

But it is hard to plan good trips, shows to go, etc.. things to buy that I really need etc because I won't die with my savings intact.

Surely, I am not trying to get into too many personal details, yet I am also attempting to describe some of the difficulties that anyone might have when they might be in a situation in which they might not have access to large amounts of discretionary income, so really the exact amounts that I was using are not really as relevant as might be trying to fit such amounts into a kind of realistic goal that a guy might have, and surely you continue to make straw man arguments to the extent that you continue to proclaim that any of us would be asserting that you need to wait until your elderly years before you might start to tap into your bitcoin.

There can really be an issue for any guys who might be in their 20s, 30s and/or 40s to pull the fuck you lever too soon and to conclude that they are able to spend whatever amount of savings that they had, and many times the mistake comes from failing/refusing to consider their withdrawal rate in sustainable ways so that they ar not tapping into their principle, and you seem to be down playing those concepts and even suggesting that there is no problem in terms of spending your principle - yet guys like that frequently will end up blowing their wadd way too soon, and I personally don't even disagree with the idea of dying on zero, yet would you really want to be living miserably for the final 10-20 years of your life without many options based on your own failure/refusal to defer some gratification along the way and to spend within a budget rather than going balls to the walls and overly spending because you wanted to make sure you got plenty of enjoyment during your younger years.

I have mentioned several times that traditional financial systems allow for a 4%-ish annual withdrawal rate, which means that you have to have 25 years worth of your income/expenses saved up before you are able to completely live off of those traditional investments in a kind of perpetual way... .and so these are ways not to deplete your principle until it comes to a time that you might see that you ONLY have a few years left (to the extent that you might foresee your demise and then start to deplete your principle at that time.

To me it seems that any of us could withdraw from bitcoin at 10% per year as along as we are valuating based on the 200-WMA, and [ur=https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX19JF9hIp6c1wD2SFozpv16iaHWd+OrlZHPGhCa3EadaK6Dv6fuLRbLViAq1QfFtdajqnKifucShgA==l]so if our fuck you status is to have $6,666 per month of income, then we would need to have $800k in value, which is currently at 18.75 BTC to achieve such results[/url]... You could choose to have a different target such as half of that amount which would require half as many BTC and generate half as much monthly income.

So, there is nothing in the requirement of sustainable withdrawal that you have to get to an older age before you can start to draw upon you BTC.  You should just be keeping your head to the grindstone and stop fucking around with cashing out your BTC too soon. Keep building it until it gets to the required amount, and the sooner you are able to do that then you can engage in sustainable withdrawal rather than prematurely depleting your principle.

To me, you (and your ideas) sound way too prone to wanting to prematurely deplete your principle and to conclude that to be a preferable way to live since you are so inclined to buy into the idea that you need to make sure that you enjoy your bitcoin prior to them getting to a sufficiently large enough level... which on the surface seems like inabilities to defer gratification to me.. rather than really making sure that you have enough BTC prior to starting to spend them. .which you may well be close to such a place with your 7-ish years of BTC accumulation, yet for some reason I have my doubts, since you keep implying want to start to deplete your principle rather than really wanting to think through how you can have your cake and eat it too, so long as you are able to get your BTC stash to an amount that the sustainable withdrawal amount can completely support your lifestyle...

and maybe we can just agree to disagree on some of this stuff in regards to how much is enough, since it becomes even more difficult when I am throwing out numbers to support my points but you are not throwing out numbers, and there is no reason to have to conclude that you are specifically referring to your own circumstances with whatever numbers you use.

To me, you seem to be wanting to engage in some kind of moderation of your income from your BTC, yet you seem to think that you have a formula that will accomplish such, but we still do not have any numbers with which to work, which causes me to both conclude that you are wanting to spend beyond sustainable levels, and that you also are considering that some extra that you might withdraw would be used to buy back BTC cheaper.. which surely those kinds of gambling techniques might end up working out, yet on a personal level I get somewhat concerned to have those kinds of risk taking in the way that I manage my own BTC holdings, so I consider that any BTC that I sell is not likely to be bought back at cheaper prices... even though for sure within the tool you can see actual on the ground numbers that give you the spread between BTC spot price and the 200-WMA in order to potentially help you for trying to figure out levels of overheatedness and also levels of underheatedness as a potential way to trade, which may or may not end up working out, especially since there is likely already a problem of insufficient accumulation for any guys who are selling BTC with expectations to buy back cheaper. .it both causes guys to sell too much too soon, but it also throws guys off of a needful focus to keep their heads to the grindstone of ongoing, consistent, persistent and perhaps even aggressive BTC accumulation until the reach a sufficient target to give them their desired abilities to sustainably live off of their BTC holdings.

You're right about that, but because the concept seems to me to be bullshit. If I think the title of a book is bullshit, don't expect me to read it.


Completely the opposite. I am, by far, the richest person in my family considering my ancestors. Of course I do not aspire to become Buffet, but if today I have a good net worth that does not stop growing, it is because I follow the ideas of those who, like him, do not stop accumulating capital. Today I am much calmer and happier with all the wealth that I continue to accumulate than if I had to calculate how to spend what I have in order to arrive with 0 when I calculate that I will die.

The world has progressed precisely because of the accumulation of capital that has been invested and passed on for generations. That is why today 8 billion people can live with living standards that were unimaginable only 100 years ago.


In Buffet's case, it doesn't seem to be due to childhood trauma. Although it may be hard to believe, there are people who are happy without spending money on bullshit.

Besides the YOLO, the “Die with 0” and all the variants end up in many cases like what you say about McGregor, in rehab clinics or worse, dying of overdose.

They aren't normal or let's say, average people, so it's hard to say whether they regret it or not. Overall, our mindset changes every year, especially in late ages when you gain all the experience and become wiser compared to 99% of people.
I think that some people are like that, they prefer to have wealth over spending it. They might wish to do both but they prioritize only one and in this case Warren Buffet prioritized wealth, that's why he was living a frugal life. Maybe all of these come from childhood traumas, I don't know because I watched a recent interview of Elon Musk where Don Lemon asked him, you are an intense person, where does that intensity come from? And Elon Musk's answer was that he was born that way and also, he had a tough childhood. So, I believe that behind people like Elon Musk, Waren Buffet and others, there is a childhood trauma that made them who they are today.
If I were Elon or Warren, I'd spend my life like Conor McGregor but wouldn't become an addict

Buffet is one of the richests guy on earth. You won't reach him, comparing yourself with him will only lead to frustration.


You are judging the book by its title.

Die with zero isn't selfish.

You can make charity with your money when you are alive, not dead.

You can give your money to your kids when they are young and they need money, at 30s-40s, not when you die and they are about 70s and already rich. Or even worse, your kids may die before you.

You are just wrong about the concepts of the book. Criticizing without reading .

Yes well, I recently opened a thread that we can say contrary to the movement recently:


But the concept of dying with 0 seems to me to be a mistake in itself, if not tell this guy:



Do you think he is regretting not having spent more when he was young on experiences? He has had a pretty frugal life, especially compared to the wealth he has.

Besides the fact that it seems to me a selfish concept. Using money to help others is one of the things that has given me the most satisfaction, something you can do at any age. To think that I have to die with 0 because I have to maximize my enjoyment of experiences as a young person is to think “me, me, me.”

That's not to go into whether those experiences I want to enjoy are something I need to be happy or needs created from a superficiality.

I think that this gets too personal, but, I was able to stack more than that per week just through signature campaigns... which used to pay much more than that less than 1-2y ago.

Anyway , I know that many people get troubled with the idea of spending money before they get old. It is worth reading, for sure.

Because hitting your ATH of saving at 75y is certainly a waste of life.

We still have to be careful not to overly read into a book that might not sufficiently account for needs to make sure that we stacked enough BTC first, and surely if you had been stacking BTC the whole 7 years of your time of being on the forum, then sure it could be true that you have gotten to a point in which you have accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, so then you can start to cash out some of those BTC, yet I have my doubts that you have had been heads down stacking BTC for the past 7 years, yet maybe that is too presumptive of me.

Based on your location, I understand that you likely have not been able to stack $100 per week of bitcoin over the past 7 years, and even if you had been able to stack $100 per week you would have had invested $36,600 and you would have right around 2.715 BTC.  Would that be enough BTC to start to live on it rather than to continue to stack for another cycle or more? I wonder.  I am not trying to "I gotcha" on any of this because you are in a better position to know yourself, and surely it is possible that any of us might have been able to outperform a DCA strategy if we had been able to front load our BTC investment, and I can consider a variety of scenarios in which a decent amount of front loading could have had been done in order to result in about a $36,600 budget to have had resulted in more than 2.715 BTC, for example anyone who might have had been able to front-load their investment in a shorter timeline. 

So for example a guy who was able to average invest around $233 per week over three years from late 2017 until late 2020 may well would have invested a similar amount of $36,600, yet he would have had accumulated about 5 BTC rather than 2.715 BTC.

Surely, I am not even proclaiming that any of us can be so smart to either frontload our investment effectively or even guys who were able to lump sum invest into bitcoin with BTC prices around $6k to $7k, might have been able to buy nearly 6 BTC with the same amount of $36,600, yet many of us are not in a position to just throw some extra lump sums at strategically better BTC prices, and we tend to need to establish our BTC stake over time, even if we might have some money that we can reallocate from some other investments that we might have had previously had.

So I understand that in Brazil (or should I say places in South America), it surely would be possible to have a reasonably sustainable income, even off of something like 5 BTC, which even at 4%, it would be around 0.016 BTC per month, which truly could be in the ballpark of enough and in the ballpark of sustainable.. even though again, I still am thinking that some tweaks might need to come to some of the formulas in the sustainable withdrawal tool to help us to consider these matters in terms of the 200-WMA dollar valuations rather than becoming overly reliant on BTC spot prices or overly withdrawing of BTC, yet if we are remaining with what I consider to be relatively conservative withdrawals of 4%, it seems to be that your bitcoin will continue to grow faster than something like a 4%-ish annual withdrawal rate.

By the way, again, there is no need to give your exact numbers, and we can talk in terms of hypotheticals because I still consider that there can be a lot of challenges to really get to something like 5 BTC currently, even for a guy with 7 years of bitcoin experience absent some fairly aggressive early investment and mostly refraining from overly shaving off BTC stash in the past 7-ish years.

As you may recall in my own case, I started similar to you in terms of registering in the forum towards the top of the market (mine was 2013 and yours was 2017), and so I surely consider that it could be possible to front load your investment in your early years, and buy a decent amount of BTC as the price is going down, so that by the time the BTC price starts recovering, a few years later, then you (we) have mostly already built up our BTC position, so that we might have had gotten ourselves to a status of overaccumulation in the first few years of our investment into bitcoin (which was the case for me), yet I am having my doubts about whether you would have had been able to reach anything close to overaccumulation status.. and in my own case, by late 2013, I had already had more than 20 years of building up various other (non-BTC) investments, so I was able to draw from some of that in order to be a bit more aggressive with my BTC investment as compared to many guys who might be getting into bitcoin and they also might not have a lot of other investments in order that they can either leverage or to use as ways to justify  their BTC stash as being a kind of hedge against their other non-BTC (traditional) investments.

Recently I had made posts about the hypothetical guy who considers 21-ish BTC as a sufficient investment amount that would get him to fuck you status (even considering 200-WMA) prices, and so if a guy considers 21 BTC as sufficient, then he may feel even better if he had overly accumulated and he had 35 BTC (so he is more than 60% beyond his goal), so he can feel comfortable setting his BTC withdrawal strategy.  Yet the guy who has ONLY accumulated 7 BTC so far, is about 60% below such 21 BTC goal, and so that guy with ONLY 7 BTC would likely need to continue stacking for a whole cycle in order to potentially start to feel that his 7 BTC (and plus whatever he might be able to add to it in the coming 4 years) is then likely to be close to equivalent as the 21 BTC stash today.. and so then in 4 years he would have potentially good chances to be approaching getting to status of sufficient BTC accumulation, even though he would not be at an overaccumulation status at that point, even though give another 1-2 years, his same 7-ish BTC (and whatever additional BTC that he might be able to continue to stack) might start to feel as if they are at an overaccumulation  status.


I think that you might be creating a bit of a strawman argument, since I doubt that any of us is saying to save without having some timeline for starting to potentially withdraw from your BTC stash, yet I frequently have asserted that it can be problematic for guys to be dipping into their principle, so that is part of the reason to try to get to a status of overaccumulation before starting to cash out... since if you are still accumulating bitcoin and you have not quite reached a status of overaccumulation, then to me, it hardly makes any sense to be prematurely cashing out and/or trying to trade bitcoin and things like that.. which means overly spending during UPpity price periods with expectations to buy some or all of that BTC cheaper, which may end up being a form of gambling rather than really thinking through the need to get to a real and meaningful status of overaccumulation and having a wee bit of patience that may not even take as long as you seem to be implying it to heir take.. .which you are saying indefinite, and many times, one or two more cycles may well end ujp making a world of difference to guys who are accumulating BTC and biting their nails for their first opportunities to spend their "profits" in likely overly premature kinds of ways.

Sure, you are free to do whatever you like and rationalize your behaviors of spending too much bitcoin too soon, which seems to me to have great potential of putting you in a position in which you never really are able to get close to fuck you status, even though it would have been well within your reach with a wee bit more patience of perhaps a cycle or two more of accumulation rather than getting overly excited to spend from whatever little BTC that you had been able to accumulate that likely had not reached a status of enough or more than enough, which from my point of view should be the case when starting to employ sustainable withdrawal practices, that can both allow to spend at or more than your needs and/or even to continue to build while you are in a status of increasingly greater financial freedom by attempting to exerise prudent and responsible cashing out practices.


First, you did not properly quote me, which I fixed it.

Second, I am pretty sure that Poker Player was not talking about 1-2% per month, but instead he was talking about 1-2% per year, which I considered to be overly conservative, but still, guys can do what they want. .and it may well be better to start out overly conservative in regards to cashing out rather than over doing it, especially if guys might be less than a couple of cycles into bitcoin.


Surely none of us can really assess exactly when guys would be in a position to pull the fuck you lever, yet it seems to me that if most if not all or maybe even more than a guy's annual salary can be obtained through living off of bitcoin, then a guy would be in a better position to pull such fuck you status, as long as he is able to figure out that he had reached such status and he is not making mistakes in his calculations, which truly brings me back to saying that I personally prefer to valuate our BTC stash based on 200-Week Moving average assessments rather than using spot price, and so the 200-WMA is a way to try to estimate bottom prices which would likely help us to better appreciate if we have enough BTC based on such estimated bottom prices rather than getting overly excited about BTC spot prices.. especially since if we are planning to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of our BTC, we should not be considering converting large portions of our BTC into dollars rather than attempting to maintain our BTC stash and withdrawing from it on a regular basis, whether the actual withdrawals were to happen monthly, quarterly, yearly or some other kind of a timeline, which also may or may not be accompanied by attempts to time our withdrawals for Up periods in BTC prices rather than crashes or bottoms.

In regards to investment strategy, truly a guy has to get to a point of having had accumulated enough or more than enough BTC through buying through the years, perhaps even a combination of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.  I would not consider trading or any form of selling to buy back cheaper as a responsible method to accumulate BTC, which truly could take 1-2 cycles or more to get a BTC stash to be at a status of sufficient and/or over accumulation in order to justify either beginning to employ sustainable withdrawal whether time based and/or price based or actually executing pulling the fuck you lever (to the extent that fuck you levers are voluntarily rather than involuntarily pulled).


Again, I doubt that trading is a good idea to build bitcoin wealth, and personally I consider trading to be dumb, especially for anyone who might be able to earn income from other places, and to set aside a certain quantity of his discretionary income for bitcoin investing, and yeah, if you are just starting now, you may well need 1-2 cycles or more to really build up your bitcoin holdings depending on a variety of your 9-ish personal factors, which you might want to review... also bitcoin investing is far from guaranteed, so you have to account for how aggressive you are able to be in your bitcoin investment based on your ability to establish strong back up funds and other ways of managing your cashflows so that you don't end up wrecking yourself... so I frequently talk about being as aggressively as you are able to be as long as you are not over aggressive to such an extent that you wreck yourself, and no one is going to help you or feel sorry for you if you fuck up by being overly aggressive or ending up gambling/trading  BTC rather than investing in it.. which surely could take 4-10 years or longer and if you are a beginner in investing, you may well want to consider best case scenarios of more than 10 years and perhaps closer to 15-20 years of investing in bitcoin, unless you are able to reasonably engage in frontloading of your bitcoin investment (which can be difficult for beginner investors to accomplish).

Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month.  So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had  been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon.  So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to  sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).
[/quote]I have a question to ask though, in achieving this kind of profitability so as to be withdrawing 1 - 2% of ur portfolio every month and then "pull the fuck you lever" as u have said, what kind of investment strategy are you employing? Cause if it is hodling, then it will take a very long time unless you're DCA'ing, again, you will need alot of capital, or maybe is it by trading scooping profits by buying low and selling high constantly (spot) or trading on future prices which in all it's still very risky, so I guess in all, I'm asking which investment strategy is best so as to achieve this financial freedom

No, this is not what the book is about.

People who waste money in bullshit aren't the target audience of the book.

This book is written for people who invested a lot of money over the life and should review their accumulation goals.

 I believe especially people who focused since early professional life in the FIRE moviment , quite common in my generation,  which many people live a very frugal life saving a lot


I think the main point is that when you save indefinitely,  you end up transferring money from your poor  young self to your old rich self in the future. How much does it makes sense

Just be aware of your financial decision to hold and save

There is a balance , which is not easy to determine.

But certainly save all is not the perfect balance for most people.

I still think that when I used 4% as my example of a withdrawal rate, I very much understated the possible sustainable withdrawal rate for bitcoin, even though traditional investment assets use such a 4% rate, and sometimes the traditional assets get into trouble because they are not even able to continue to average more than 4% ongoing appreciation - which surely there can be a lot of variance in regards to the performance of various assets in which a traditional fund will invest, and surely in recent times, we also likely realize that the dollar has largely been debasing at rates higher than 4% annually, so we would likely be losing purchasing power if we had been continuing with a 4% annual withdrawal rate with traditional assets.

We can look historically back at the rise of the 200-WMA, and we can see that it has never gone lower than rising 20% annualized, so my thoughts are that as long as the BTC spot price is mostly staying at least 20% to 25% the 200-WMA, then we would not need to take any measures to reduce our withdrawal rate, even if we withdrawing fairly high rates, even approaching 10% per year... and so 4% should be way less controversial than 10%, so surely I would not battle so much if guys are giving me push back about a 10% withdrawal rate, and surely I know that guys might not even employ the 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA and also to reduce their withdrawal amounts if the BTC price starts to get below 25% above the 200-WMA, as such reductions in withdrawal rates are described in the withdrawal recommendation instructions of the sustainable withdrawal tool accordingly:

>>>>>>"When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<

By the way, even though some forum members consider building their bitcoin stash based on intergenerational wealth considerations, I doubt that we necessarily need to consider our own stash in that kind of a hoarding way, and we likely still could be able to build up a large enough stash that we might be able to both live off of it and also perhaps (but not necessarily having to) pass down whatever wealth we have left over to heirs that we might have.


Personally, I still consider that it is much better to strive towards  a status of overaccumulation of bitcoin, and if we are spending prior to reaching such status, then we likely should be careful in regards to how much BTC we are withdrawing.. so yeah, it is not an easy balance to figure out, since a person could end up spending way too much too soon, if he had not first reached a status of overaccumulation prior to starting to spend his BTC, and perhaps in bitcoin it is good to be accumulting for a cycle or two and even to have some time between accumulation stage and then a stage of starting to withdraw BTC.  We have seen a lot of folks regretting that they spent too many BTC too soon, since they were not able to continue to build and defer gratification for a cycle or two, and instead they start spending BTC within one cycle. .which I have difficulties imagining how bitcoin might have had sufficiently grown in such a short period of time such as merely one cycle or less, as compared to those who are approaching a couple of cycles or more.

But, yeah, each of us has to try to figure out our level of starting to cash out based on our own satisfaction regarding our BTC stash and to figure out if we have yet accumulated enough in order to start cashing out, so going back to the example of the guy that had accumulated 10 BTC, he might feel that currently he needs closer to 20 BTC in order to start to cash out, so he might either continue to stack his BTC, or perhaps in a few more years (based on projections of the 200-WMA), his same 10 BTC may well be worth similarly as 20 BTC are today, so he merely needs to either hold out until late 2027, and he can spend from his fiat if he does not feel that it is helpful for him to continue to stack BTC in the next 3-ish years... yet I am trying to assert that sometimes the passage of time has historically allowed a lower and lower quantity of BTC to accomplish similar kinds of goals in terms of BTC historically appreciating in value way better than any other asset and/or currency, and there is no real evidence that such dynamic is NOT going to continue in bitcoin, even though surely past performance does not equal future results and there could potentially be a variety of ways in which bitcoin ends up underperforming expectations, yet any of us who are in the process of cashing out BTC or considering starting to cash out BTC may well need to be attempting to account for various scenarios that not only attempt to project base case ideas, yet also outlier situations in either BTC price direction.


I am not against the idea of passing on some wealth to kids and also mostly attempting to spend money too, and personally, it seems to me that bitcoin allows a lot of the possibilities of being able to accomplish both...living well, and also making sure that you have a cash cushion, whether you plan to leave that cash cushion to heirs or just to have it just in case... no one really wants to outlive their money either, which does seem to be a bit of a common trend that happens with folks once they reach their elder years, to the extent that they are not working anymore, they tend to become somewhat dependent upon fixed income kinds of cashflows that are not keeping up with the cost of living, even though like you mentioned, it may well be the case that some elderly may not have as many expenses as they had when they were younger and were physically able to do more things.

I think that Poker Player is correct with the idea that bitcoin can quite likely allow us to both spend more as we get older, increase our standard of living and still maintain and perhaps even have our bitcoin growing as we are choosing our withdrawal levels in ways that are sustainable and even growth-oriented.


Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month.  So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had  been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon.  So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to  sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).

To this day I don't miss any experience I would like to do to save money. The main one would be to quit my 9 to 5 job but for that I don't have enough net worth yet.

Besides, I think it is a mistake to put the focus on saving.

The book is the well known YOLO but told in a different way.

It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

I don't care about Rothschild or any other billionaire. I just want to live my life the best way possible, I don't want to change the world.

I know money grows over time, but Money has a declining utility over you age.

You can save millions until you are 75  , missing many good experiences. Then all that will be left will be spending millions in better hospitals when you are 80s 90s (because you won't be able to travel at that age) Or just left all your sacrifice over the years for your kids (which might not even need your money when you die)

Spending money in experiences which will make you a happier person and with more culture is a good way to spend money, imo.

You don't have offspring, do you? The Rothschilds are very happy with you believing that idea, I wouldn't be surprised if they had paid the author underhand.

If you do it right you can live a great life in which your investments grow more and more, in which you can spend more and more and in which you accumulate a generational wealth bigger and bigger to leave to your descendants. Of course, you have to teach them from a very young age to manage money and be self-sufficient. Leaving millions of inheritance to spoiled children usually ends up with them squandering all the inheritance and dying of overdose.

Recently  i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money



At 60s, I won't be able to do outdoor activities (like ski surf sports hiking etc) as much as I can now at 40s.



Statistically, Americans reach their savings  ATH at the age of 75 (people receive heritages also near that age). So  what are they waiting to spend their money?

What this books tries to explains is that the money you spent earlier in life will give you more benefits than money spend later.

Good experiences costs money, and when you have good experiences and memories earlier in your life, you carry the benefits of that experiences for many years later on.

I think it is good to spend some of our bitcoin savings in experiences, not just relocating that btc to other assets.

I think this tool can somewhat guide you to spend some more in a more rational way

It is indeed very high, given the current price action.
But remember that going into the future, prices will grow slower, even accounting for incredibly bullish scenarios like a Power Law framework.
You can set your hypothesis on the included spreadsheet, and I think this is important as well: a portion of Bitcoin left for future generations, as we are the lucky ones building and looking for intergenerational wealth.