Bitmover, I just realized that we might also need a DCA strategy tool for buying bitcoin
But that would depend on many things like your current income and what percentage of it you would like to spend.
When discovered btc I didn't do any btc. I used other investments to buy it.. I reallocated in very few months (about 3). Thankfully, signature campaigns are somewhat of a DCA for me.
But a typical dca strategy is nice.
In addition to that, maybe it can even have some sort of dynamic DCA that looks at moving averages which will influence the amount of bitcoins someone will need to buy.
There could be some interesting relationship between how much you should invest and the current 200-WMA.
Maybe at high levels of 200-WMA, no money should be invested at all?
Or just a very small amount. And when the price is very low, the investor should make an effort to invest more (the money he didn't invest when 200WMA was very high.)
Surely there are several factors to account when establishing your BTC position - and the earliest of BTC accumulators probably should be accumulating at any price until the start to get a certain level in which they might be able to be more selective.
I probably would not want to be involved with any kind of tool that overly attempts to strategize in regards to when to buy bitcoin, since my frequent suggestion is to attempt to be as aggressive as you can in regards to investing into bitcoin without over doing it, so even though I am not opposed to the theories of holding back in order to buy on dips, yet from my perspective, there could problems for either suggesting waiting to accumulate or advising to wait to accumulate.. so I am not too excited about anything that might contribute towards waiting.. even though I do understand and agree with ideas about having some money available for buying on dips.. and I also agree with front-loading, even though it can be difficult to know when to engage in any of those kinds of behaviors except for being able to appreciate that you might not have enough BTC so there can be various strategies to employ to attempt to increase the likelihood of accumulating more BTC.. .... but then maybe I have another concern that it is more important to have more BTC even if you had to spend more per BTC to get it, rather than having fewer BTC..
Would you rather be a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is ONLY $1k per BTC, but he ONLY has 2 BTC? or a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is $10k per BTC but he has 10 or more BTC?
One of the things that seems to make bitcoin special is that it is an asset that is amongst the best, if not the best, asset that is widely available to the whole world's population, so a goal of accumulating as many as you can within your own means of gathering seems to be more important than figuring out your average cost per BTC... while at the same time, once you established enough and/or more than enough BTC within the bounds of your assessments of your needs for cashflow, then you can start to use these kinds of sustainable withdrawal tools and perhaps even largely continue to hold your BTC and allow your BTC holdings to continue to grow (at least in terms of dollar values) since the tools might allow you to figure out ways to strategize your sells in either such a way that you don't have to sell as much or alternatively pace your sales.. ... I still have not completely figured out a way on a personal level to completely use any of the advance month sales because it frequently is not going to feel good to sell large amounts of your BTC unless you are starting to feel that the BTC price is getting into territories of over-exuberance, and I am not even going to concede to knowing when that is going to be, so each person would need to figure out the extent to which s/he wants to sell months of withdrawal authorizations in advance.
Bitmover, I just realized that we might also need a DCA strategy tool for buying bitcoin
But that would depend on many things like your current income and what percentage of it you would like to spend.
When discovered btc I didn't do any btc. I used other investments to buy it.. I reallocated in very few months (about 3). Thankfully, signature campaigns are somewhat of a DCA for me.
But a typical dca strategy is nice.
Well, it would be nice for people to see how much money they made a profit off of their DCA strategy if you input the day month and year they've start buying it (or maybe just the month and year but that would not work very well because of the volatile BTC price). You could even make a little graph that shows how much in the green (or red) their investment is in, similar to
https://hodl.camp.
I find those DCA tools to already be very good tools for figuring out where a person would have had been if he had followed a certain level of strict DCA strategy, even for some period and then selecting another period and then doing some of the math ourselves in regards to if there might have had some periods of lump sum in the buying period or buying dips.
So sometimes we might be able to see where our actual bitcoin holdings are, versus where our holdings would have been or could have been if we were to have had followed some other strategy... and sometimes even being able to see if whatever we are currently doing is competitive with some kind of a strict DCA strategy or if we might have over-performed or under-performed such a strategy.
The tools are likely ONLY going to take us so far.. and surely one of the advantages of already having had established a BTC stash that might be enough or more than enough is that either this sustainable withdrawal tool, or even
my raking tool, can help to give us ideas in regards to how to reasonably manage the stash that we had already established. .and if we had been investing in bitcoin for several cycles, then it becomes more and more likely that we are going to be in sufficient profits.. which is another problem with considering merely simple profits, and from my own point of vies simple profits do not make very much difference, since sure maybe we can sell some of our BTC based on merely being in simple profits, but if we build and hold BTC profits for several cycles, it becomes more and more likely that our BTC holdings will already start to be in a kind of status of compounding profits, which additionally justifies the employment of a sustainable withdrawal status that ends up likely taking advantage of the ability of the BTC holdings to continue to compound in value... ..
but then again once someone might be in the process of actually wanting to sustainably withdraw from his BTC stash, he may no longer be as concerned about compounding value, but instead more appreciating of the fact that BTC prices (especially measured by the 200-WMA) are continuing to out perform traditional investments which likely justifies the abilities to employ withdrawal rates that are much higher than if he were to keep his value in traditional investments, so surely it is becoming more apparent to me that a 10% withdrawal strategy has good chances of continuing to be sustainable in bitcoin, which largely means that a guy in bitcoin may well ONLY need to have $800k in bitcoin as compared to $2 million in traditional investments (again measuring by the 200-WMA is currently a reduction from around 60.8 BTC to 24.3 BTC. each of them would constitute around a $6,666 month withdrawal amount... yet having the value in BTC likely causes the lower amount of BTC to be more sustainable than if the higher amount of BTC were sold into dollars and surely of course, since the current BTC price is a bit more than double the 200-WMA, then around 30 BTC could be sold right now to get the $2million fuck you status.. . .and maybe include having to sell a bit more for taxes.. (maybe 36 BTC), so then if the guy is walking away with $2 million in cash then he would presumptively need to invest it somewhere in order to get the 4% withdrawal rate and/or the $6,666 per month of income off of that.
I would feel much more comfortable having 24.3 BTC in BTC and using a 10% withdrawal rate in order to get the $6,666 per month of cashflow perpetually and in a sustainable way based on bitcoin's ongoing expected growth rate, and at the same time we can look at actual BTC's 200-WMA growth rate to attempt to verify if we are expecting the amount to come down and/or if our anticipated ongoing 10% withdrawal rate is continuing to be sustainable.
