Topic: Summary Present Day > July 2022 (Read 898 times)

Update 20/10 2019:

I will no longer track BTC due to conflicting philosophy and because this thread did not age well due to BTC technological obsoletion.

All data about BTC is instead applicable on global market cap because industry as a whole is still developing rapidly and will transform society very soon.

I would not recommend anyone to buy Bitcoin at this point in time due to things that were discovered since this topic was created exactly 1 year ago.

I have never personally used BTC for anything other than speculation and this is not a rabbit hole I am interested in reliving as I did stocks many years ago and it was a huge waste of time and more of a gambling thing. But there are more serious reasons for exiting BTC, it is in my recent post history.

I discovered ETH in early 2016 and never looked twice at BTC. Sold eth when it did not scale.

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I will however recommend acquiring index coins like Waves and other coins with real use case or commodity paired. Valuable projects that actually contribute and benefit the decentralized economy will vastly outperform BTC. BTC is suffering a case of parasitic vampirism.

Be advised, Waves is high risk coin because of Russian government interference.

Some are speculating in a front run halving, so 35k at page 1 interval should be on point. Multiple x3.5, there are x300 multiples in this brewing market with token selectivity but you have to get in now because its already starting. I don't know which ones will push x300. Waves will outperform btc 10:1 but higher risk.

WAVES is my main market so it's completing a 6 month wave 2 from a december 2018 wave 1. I didn't know what to make of that 6 month slump but it bears a few characteristics of a drawn out wave 2. It's BTC and $ that is tracked for WAVES, I am uncertain about top 10 alt performance and others in general. WAVES have recent issues that can interfere with transition into wave 3, specifically VST and Bettertokens. So I should perhaps clarify that this optimism is geared towards the type of alts described in the paragraph below. This new market requires cherry picking, big gainers x1000++ are in there somewhere. WAVES could be one but I am not at a position to recommend heavy investment there because of its issues (it's Russian).


My position on alts is mixed because it seems all the devs that are enjoying good momentum are targeted by regulators, whereas the powers behind BTC are the old regimes so there is alot of momentum to get BTC on top of the pile which they are actually succeeding in right now and have been since april.

Obviously, great alts will appear if sanctioned by the old regimes. I envision some AI backed coins will be a perfect addition to this neo feudal totalitarian model that is the flavor of the century. Because of the hard GDP cap of BTC when above a few trillion, these alts will vastly outperform BTC when introduced at a few hundred million. Nation states who overtly attempt to introduce coins will go nowhere, mainstream is dumb on blockchain but if given a choice with sentiments as critical as the present, they will absolutely choose to not back governments if they can. So it will be and is alot of sock puppeting and astroturfing to get everyone onboard this new money deal and dumping the unsustainable fiat debts of the 20th century. China is a big loser in this game so they will be the ones sponsoring everyones gains here, and it's too late for them to recover position with dollar hoarding an crypto censorship.

For the current alt coin generation, introduction of decentralized atomic swaps can be a good trigger for x200 rallies, privacy nodes can also revive because they entered at late peak 2017 so did not really have a chance to deliver before dying down, but this is a niche sector with less capitalization potential. All these privacy nodes look like a huge wave 1 early 2018 and then wave 2 multi year chart which is coming to an end now.

Other alts that can perform very well are coins backed by something real like a service or asset, or some use case that BTC does not cover. There will probably be fortune 500 migrations soon and this will introduce private money according to a neo feudal model. This would be an explosive rally trigger. But because there is actual economic modeling possible in this subsector, speculative momentum may not grow into bubble mode. Overall a huge boon to the industry and in the right manner, as a liberal addition that does not necessarily interfere on a regulatory level with the current generation of coins. The power dynamics between states and multinationals may be interesting to follow over the 2020's, right now the military (crown) is controlling everything but this can change quickly if there is a higher degree of organization of the masses with private money (lords) at the core.

With the level of sophistication of surveillance tech and the direction its developing, more players is alot better even if it will lead to civil conflict when the old hegemony is replaced by smaller corporate states. I believe people of this generation will seek peaceful transition of power so corporations with mobilizing tendencies maybe starved from capitalization. It's a very utopian outcome in this scenario but depends on resource abundance of the masses or other things like pandemics or disasters, can switch the flavor into mobilization mode rapidly, happened many times before. False flags are unfortunate risk factor as max IV labs are military controlled. Look at Syria, dictators stop at nothing to retain power, Ghaddafi did halt chemical use, didn't end well for him now did it. Kremlin doctrine = destroy everything if at brink of destruction.

These key elements are beneficial for the utopian scenario:

1. Rapid armament of the masses by 3d printing before any restrictive laws can be implemented to retain status quo, it's a deterrent against totalitarianism when deployable for large scale rapid mobilization like flash mobs. Some say that todays military is too complex for the serf class to challenge and its true in its current incarnation but can change very quickly. There is also an allegiancy factor with western commanders that may service democratic regime change.

2. Flooding the market with as many strong private currencies as possible, this will render any counter measures inefficient. Could originate in silicon valley and spread to fortune 500's.

3. Production abundance through automation and implementation of universal basic income which masternodes and proof of stake is perfectly developed for. Resource abundance will facilitate healthy power transition.

4. Maintaining government to a lesser degree for protection of vulnerable infrastructure and social administration. A phasing out of the military industrial complex makes direct opposition less likely. They can have their psychopathic sandbox to play in but it will be rendered completely irrelevant to the new world order at large. This will be the first time in human history that the hunting class is nolonger in command of civilization.

I believe that this resource re allocation from military to private will accelerate a singularity event. A military elite controlled singularity is possibly very dystopian. The irony here is that all free citizens must assume characteristics of operatives, but not as specialized. In Rome, most senators were also soldiers, so I envision a huge senatorial class of upgraded feudal serfs combined with cyborg integration. A highly classless society.

i suspect that bulls will keep price above $7500 to maintain the parabolic curve of this year's uptrend.


bold call. i assume you mean against BTC? you got a chart for that? i'm afraid to get my expectations up, but sentiment is indeed feeling right---pessimistic and rekt---for altcoin spring in the not so distant future. it's been a long and cold altcoin winter.

You sounded like you know altcoins too well, the first altcoin that we had in the cryptocurrency market came with the promises of having a better system than bitcoin, people keyed into it, Litecoin also came with those promises also, and so as many other projects also did, but where are they now? Till date, they are still panting and running hard to meet up with bitcoin, so I really don’t see any altcoins being able to outperform bitcoin no matter the use case that they have because they still all rely on bitcoin to do well.

If altcoin was going to outperform bitcoin in the long run, you should have seen it by now, or maybe you can just hint me on which alt coin gave you all these courage to make you have this bold statement on the page about bitcoin being outperformed.

It is a question of when and at what level the bullrun will begin for BTC, anywhere from today at 9k or in a few months at 7 no more, no less. Alts are currently completing a wave 2 in the new uptrend market. So Alts are actually in covert bull already, don't sell your alts.

There may be a flip event because all the old world power players are in BTC now. I believe that alts with use case will outperform BTC vastly. It is a dystopian outcome for BTC hegemony, because in essence nothing will have changed, the ones who were in control before, will then also be in control, Fortune 500, saudi, CIA and so on.

Based on the easy of which this entire industry was subverted in little less than two years, BTC may in fact triumph and become a totalitarian control tool. I have seen Bittrex fold, Waves fold, there isn't anyone who hasn't folded to the almighty $. Perhaps they were forced, under threat of execution (Russia/Waves) or imprisonment (US/Bittrex). I guess, I would also take the counterfeit money instead of checking out.

35k probable before end of year.

Tracking this scenario from page 1:

Phase II

1. September 2019 is the start of the real bull parabola 2.0: btc moves rapidly to 14k/global 450bn
2. up to 50% october retracement 7/225
3. Parabolic rally from november 2019 until march 2020: global 1.1TN/BTC 28-30K

Tracking a double top formation in BTC. There is a general weakness in alts so optimism may not transfer to them and as a result they can be dragged into a wave 5 along with BTC. Can take many months to resolve a wave 5, maybe more than one year.

There are winners here and there with selective picks but they will underperform in a structural downtrend.

Confirmation of continuation must break new ath for BTC or stabilize in that area above 17k/500bn global.

 Double top is confirmed by tagging 13.8 and then rejection. This will be a quick resolution, a few days maybe a week we will know.

Could go fast if no reversal in this territory, 35 000 btc in 4 months or less. otherwise some kind of top in this area around 450bn, little bit disappointed with alts so far.

Don't think market will do -80% if reversal but maybe 60-70%, then back up in 6 months or more.

update june 27th: strong rejection at 13.8k, perhaps back to 4-5 and then 35k in 6 months or more.

2nd update: see waves price tracker thread. scenario is wave 5 to double tap 3k (1 year delay in prediction), sideways + - 15-20% then 35k (prediction on track), and medium retracement towards 4-6k (a few months delay or on track depends on price velocity).

Tagging 450bn soon but which market will it be? BTC at 15k is 270bn alone so that's only 400bn global, the remaining 50bn may be sub top 5-10 alts combined, it is alot of x10 there with an additional 50bn because they are all sub 2bn market caps.

Possibly Bitcoin may enter a bear wave 5 whereas some good alts progress rapidly, it's then a flip event and this is why there is such ambiguity in the charts.

The bold text indicates that BTC may be nearing a cross roads in price performance and decline up to 80% from here or around 12-14k.

Many good altcoins have not experienced the type of growth as BTC did recently, so I could not make sense of this progression and how they will be capable of following Bitcoin into minus 80%. So I believe that the good ones will momentarily decline perhaps up to 50% but remain stable in BTC value because it will be BTC/USD that is dragging the market down. And then there may be a flip and good alts can go into hyperbolic growth. I don't think any of the top 5 is included here in this growth trajectory.

There is then growth continuation for alts and long term stagnation for BTC.

This is very speculative right now so why not a little btc and some useful alts and some fiat until we know more.

Side ways or small retracement 10-20% is best scenario for BTC a few months out. Unless 20k-30k is broken but that's kind of irrelevant for people in the present who are thinking about positioning. And it could easily go -50% at those levels for months at a time., volatile.

This comment unintendedly covers all outcomes I suppose, have been busy with main project lately, have not analyzed markets. Page 1 is still valid. Made some buy recommendations for friends and family a few months ago at 4k, was asked today but could not immediately approve, it's an easy +50% to 14k to squeeze it out but then what about long term in case of reversal. People should really already have entered positions in BTC long ago by now.

I think of the first part like you; a recovery of up to about $ 12,000 with a good performance even for the best altcoins (not sure of the 30's, but I think at least a x10) .... this by mid / end of July, but from August onwards weakness to go down strong until October, with a decrease of around $ 5,000.
From then on there will be the true and definitive upward cycle, which will accompany us until the new ATH of 2022.

Can you explain better what I highlighted in bold of your post?

I think there won't be too much of a change in the history sense from today to 2022. I am not talking about "no change" as in the price will be same and everything will be same, I am talking about the past 3 years happened and the next 3 years will be the same as the last 3 years. That is at least my idea, maybe it won't be like that, maybe it will be a lot different but to me the fact is that we had a very wild 3 years shows that how much more wild can it get?

I am pretty sure it would be as wild as the past 3 years and it won't be calm but it can't get any more wild. Hence in 2022 the price will be a lot more but until then we will have many ups and downs in price that would make new all time highs then make yearly lows to eventually go up again and down again.

above analysis still valid, bear 5 could be many years long if activated at $10-12k. Bear 5 does not include good alt projects, so it could actually be a mixed bull bear scenario aka flip.

Looks like 450BN global/14k BTC by mid august, alts x30 by late summer (not top 5, expected underperfom), then up to 70% correction, and then x6 from that low by september 2020 which will be ath for global and BTC (810BN/25K).

If bearish wave 5, then this is top and -80% from here, recovery delayed until late 2019. 212bn/7k. Target 40bn/1400btc.

65/35 in favor of continuation.

Well we all know that predicting the price movement is very difficult, as evident of the some misses already in his phase 1. But the thing is you can just adjust your predictions as it see fits, just like what the OP did about 2 weeks ago.

Of course all we can do is hope because who wouldn't want the price o bitcoin goes higher in the future?

I can really see that,  you have really tried your best and done a lot of research.
And to be honest i am also quite impressed by your work.
But as others said,  i will also say that this is Bitcoin and you clearly know what i mean to say.
You can have evidences from the past that how the price of Bitcoin fluctuates.
Hope some of your research becomes true  and yes we will be able to sell our holdings in a higher price.

Phase I

1. Global is moving to 187bn and BTC $5700 by early december this year.

It took a little longer though, perhaps you initial prediction didn't take into consider the hash war brought to us by the BCH vs BSV in November that's why it look a while before we can hit your Phase 1 prediction. Right now it's $179 billion cap and price is $5200-$5300. We are almost there so once we touch it, let's see if your other predictions will be right on track.

We can not really said and analyze the market accurately because if you look at op predictions you will see that he was predicting bitcoin to grow to $5000 in December 2019 but currently bitcoin is now $5248. I think we should allow time to show us the way.