Topic: Summary Present Day > July 2022 - page 2. (Read 898 times)

Well anything can happen, and we can't be sure if more and more will come to crypto to have that price in 2022, but i also think will be higher then is now.

Good work bytheway.

243 Global April 20th then reversal. If double bottom/lower wave 5 scenario H2 (40-100bn), otherwise towards 14k Fall (600bn global).

Took a little longer than expected but here we are.

Might be a wave 5 to double bottom 3k or even lower, might otherwise go stright to 14k between september possibly as late as december 2019 because of this 4 month delay.

Phase II/III and beyond 2021 are still on track.

180bn/5.5k

This is my interpretation based on present data sets:

1. The brands you list are part of the top 20 I believe. Considering that they are at 0.25 to billion dollar valuations or more already, combined with traditional market cap developments over time in high tech brands such as Microsoft and Apple in the 80's, barring the 2017 parabolic move caused by market confusion and possibly tether, a logic 5 year projection would presume that none of them exceed $400bn independently or consistently given 100% success in all areas of development and near market monopoly for each chain. I have not analyzed any of them in detail except Stellar which is similar to Waves, which my own brand is using as a utility platform for the proprietary product. The bottom line is that growth potential is great but risk variables remain uncertain, so utility investments are preferred over speculative investments (invest in things you need/use often).

2. Alot of the 1 Quadrillion dollar value estimates from hyperbitcoinization analytics wrongly assume present market conditions to remain static over the next decade. I believe that AI paired chains will represent perhaps 90% or more of the 1Qn projection, with traditional industries at a collective $100Tn, whereas global gdp for 2018 is at ~ $80Tn. This means, no $1 million dollar bitcoin or higher. There are no serious AI hybrid brands yet, and I don't expect any on the horizon for 5 years or more.

3. Bitcoin itself, given fundamental flaws such as Proof of Work, demonstrably dysfunctional scaling solutions which are not decentralized and importantly community behaviour by key people, concludes that its price may increase as a novelty factor in the near or far future, but not at a rate of competitiveness comparable to other emerging chains. Its dominance will likely fade significantly.

4. It is possible that ecosystems of different blockchain iterations such as Privacy Masternodes can capture small market share in a trillion dollar economy within 3 years or less. Many of these brands are at single or double digit million dollar valuations. Given a $100Bn potential market, distributed somewhat equally between a few dozen brands, we can conclude that there are some x1000 projections within that ecosystem in the present, with proven and strong momentum in some of these coins during late bullmarket 2017, as many were introduced around that time in batches. The primary source of this projection is based on DASH and its fork variations. However, I think that solo chains without a platform enabler such as Stellar or Waves, will experience slower adoption because of increased marketing requirements inorder to reach more users. By its nature there is also the ever present risk of regulation in this sector. From a scalability viewpoint, an ecosystem of 30 surviving and successful chains, each capable of 50tx/s (based on DASH and Pivx data), will enable around 10% of VISA capacity which aligns well with an expected market share of 10% in a 1-2 trillion dollar blockchain economy.


So what do investors need to be mindful of?

1. Dpos chains that are in the top 30 due to a higher degree of centralization comparable to PoS Masternodes. Exceptions include brands that offer something realistic beyond DpoS (Lisk has smart contracts in pipeline, Nano is DAG, and a few others want to build decentralized internet in top of their DPos). In general, the DPoS model is an inferior and outdated option from a decentralized perspective. There are newer variations of all of the above but the top 30 is more visible so people buy that before proper due diligence on the underlying tech and emerging options.

2. The current top 5 bubble which could easily shed another several tens of billions from total MC, or at the bare minimum, significantly underperform other coins, as soon as they unpeg from BTC.

3. Astroturfers such as Nexo (Goldman Sachs), anything proven to be operated by old world centralized institutions or Fortune 500 brands which are since decades coopted by (corrupt) government. These brands will soon migrate to blockchain and that is the source of a large share of the $100Tn projected market cap, so the growth will be ported, not new. Present Crypto index can grow towards 5 to 10Tn in 5 years but probably not much more, this is in line with Winklevoss statements.

4. Centralized exchanges which are already fading.

I find your analysis interesting, as well as bizarre, and it is right that you slightly adjust your prediction as prices and waves form.

If you have analyzed other blockchain projects, which ones can you think are the ones with the best potential to express: VeChain? Tezos? Stellar? Iota? Neo?
Do you have any suggestions or are you heavily invested in any of them, or others?

Yeah, that was your speculation last Oct, how about now? Because bitcoin price now is lower than $5700 as what you have stated that the price of bitcoin on Dec 2018 will be $5700 which I think will not going to happen now, so there is no assurance on those speculations and maybe better to make more possible speculation than thinking in advance with no any other proof or something. But still give some point of vew to others.

Prices hit the 112 terminal bottom yesterday so this might be it. But there are fundamental indicators that suggest a change in sentiment, so especially BTC and ETH are a little toxic for now. Some alts at this level should yield x200 within a year or two, I am not sure exactly which ones but have a stake in some.

If we don't rally towards 422 immediately, the level around 4000 +-15% will range for a few weeks or months.

Could wick to 1200 -1500 btc to affirm may 2017 trading session pre tether, 40-60bn global. Possibly include organic market growth on top of this number with adjusted bottom, equivalent to 50% higher ($1800-2250 btc).

I am tracking many dozens indicators to gain a holistic overview, social media sentiment, old coin ta, peer analytics, mass media (contra indications), gold analytics, global gdp forecasting, technological development, inflation/debt metrics and so forth.

It seems to me that market will move away from Proof of work and Bitcoin, and that the rally will be for sub top 3 alts. People should be careful dropping a bunch of fiat on BTC with this emerging shift in sentiment, there are altcoins at 1/1000 valuation of BTC with fundamental indicators suggesting x200 gains in the near future.

So, many will be burned if this scenario unfolds, but someone must pay for the rally to 422.

I would backtrack on any external price drivers for BTC right now (anything above 12k mid to long term), the gains will be global market cap, at the expense of BTC (internal wealth transfer). It's only in the past 24 hours that this speculative development became apparent as a potential rally trigger, many good alts are overlooked and alot of the devaluation this year was due to BTC pairing.

It is wise to consider the 2017 rally could have been atleast partially fueled by tether fraud, and that future rallies might not be as parabolic (x200 or more), especially for coins at more than 2 billion valuation. There are still thousandfold gains out there.

Lastly, a sudden pullback from 422 in february driven by bitcoin could be caused by a general market move away from BTC. Whereas BTC may not recover soon, alts should recover and prosper within 6 months from that point. So 12k for BTC (where shifting sentiment has not permeated mainstream already) might be its last big move for many years to come where opportunity will instead be in newer chains.

If BTC devs can deliver very soon it stands a chance to remain relevant (no proof of work/decentralized scaling). Recent public statements by people like Craig Wright, erodes confidence in the prospect of BTC. The price manipulation this time backfired (basically making BTC a toxic asset for now), it was completely overtly conducted with explicit statements by CW.

sidenote: Alot of expected near term added value in the form of underground venues such as strip clubs, will not be adopting bitcoin or any other third party chains. They will of course develop their own inhouse loyalty chain with a hybrid function of stock/gift card. The technical barrier to entry is already low today, platform enablers such as stellar and waves are well positioned to capture market here. Shortly after, mainstream fortune 500 will follow, conglomerates will assume sovereign characteristics when they decouple from government issued fiat. Government blockchains will be censorship enabled and generally dysfunctional, paying for social security (basic income), military and other social functions like education. All of these are set for increased decentralization with 3d printing and online education in the next 10 years. The aim is to achieve personal sovereignity which is the unexpressed current of blockchain. Technologically this will advance into artificial planets and so on in the latter half of the century and ultimately some divine state with the transcension hypothesis in 300 years.

Blockchain is only one piece of a high tech puzzle that we can interact with in the present world, a decade before its prime time. It is like cosmic white noise before the arrival of an interstellar mothership, or radio static before tuning into color tv. The long term (1 Quadrillion) parabola trajectory that hyperbitcoinization analytics discovered, doesn't make any sense to anyone in the present. But when other sciences are merged with it, the fundamentals fall into coherence. 

Let me understand: you are saying that ETF will be approved at the beginning of December and the general market will reach $ 422bn until about February, with the bitcoin going towards $ 14,000, as you indicated here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php? topic=5044830.msg46562328#msg46562328

Then you think that the whole market and Bitcoin pulls back again and heavily up to about $ 60 billion of the market and $ 2700 for Bitcoin, as you wrote here

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48050281

Did I understand your analysis / forecast?
Do you have any models or indicators you need to affirm these things?

We really can't see what will happen on a daily basis and this is a topic that allows us to estimate how bitcoin will be in july 2022. Last week if you asked people if the bitcoin price would go down almost everyone would say the price wouldn't go under 6 thousand dollars but right now we see that is quite possible and the price is very low right now. Compared to that we have no idea what will happen next week neither so it is futile to try to estimate what will happen in july 2022.

I think the clearest choice would be saying "it will be higher than current price" because it feels like there is still 3 and a half years from now and during that time bitcoin will probably go even higher in popularity and adoption and there will be times when the price will go up between now and that time.

Going to 422 now, probably ETF trigger beginning of december. Some alts are also undervalued so majority of gains should be there. This rally will last until february.

should hit local bottom around this level (5800 2018-11-14) before december to february rally. Please read my newer thread on why this global 422bn might not include BTC because of its scalability issues.

The first post in this discussion thread is tracking a BTC 300k in a few years, but this number could represent global market cap because of BTCs scalability problem, so in the end it might not be BTC 300k but a total market cap equivalent at that point in time which would then be in the vicinity of 5 trillion.

Asides research, at least looking at the way things have been over the years, and how things are now, the fact that we have been in a downtrend for a while now, actually could bring about nothing much to think of this year when it comes to bull run.

Sure, no one can tell the future as the market is always going to be unpredictable and one way or the other, I actually see the likelihood of mainstream adoption setting in which obviously is something that we cannot run away from and in that case, the chances of seeing bitcoin skyrocket at some point is still there but when it will is something no one can really tell.

Man that is extremely optimistic. No economic collapse and prediction that governments will jut give up in 10 years time. Well, the optimism is good.

You can't predict 4 years forward just because it fits with the last 4 years. I would be hesitant using that method to even predict the next 1 year or 6 months, 4 years is just so unlikely to hold. So much changes in that time period that no 4 year period will ever be the same as the last.

I don't think we'll ever see $3000 either, but it's impossible to rule out completely. Bitcoin does exactly that what we don't expect it to do, and when it does so, we'll be as stunned as what happened last year during the bull run. If someone told you last year in January (while the price was hovering around $1000) that we would see $20,000 before the end of that year, you would say it's impossible too.

In the end, if the price drops to $3000 it will be the best ever modern time buying opportunity. I'll gladly take advantage of that.

Also, why should we make this forum great for 'profiteering'? And what exactly do you mean with that?

A lot of speculations are coming up and we have to understand that time will probably tell were bitcoin price will be par time.  I don't believe that in December this year bitcoin will be around $5700 but my thinking is that it would be above $8000.

Thats what im thinking also dude,if where did OP get this stupid speculative topic.he seems so bright for a fool but the way he delivers this thread looks like hes out of mind

Bitcoin will never drops to $3,000 level again thats the only thing I'm sure of so stop trolling and just do what we can tomake this forum great for profiteering again

This is a fairly well-ordered Bitcoin price change plan which is presented aesthetically and neatly, but I miss at least some evidence as to why this should be, although I am sure that there are reasons for this and are not just listed. And one more thing was the fact that this work, however, does not have much value. Because Bitcoin cant be predicted.