Topic: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! - page 11. (Read 7279 times)

In a surprising turn of events that makes central bankers fear for their power, pooya87 takes the lead:

Entering Q4, how do we feel price wise... will which member will win 

I originally predicted the price will fall due to the removal of QE that will stop and reverse speculative bets on various asset classes. I continue to believe that QE will need to be removed fairly soon and that doing so will result in speculative bets being reversed. It is unclear if this will happen (and see the effects) by the December 7 deadline. Inflation continues to be very high, and the fed may end up needing to tighten swiftly if it continues to get out of hand. QE ending and/or Q-tightening has the potential to negatively affect the price of bitcoin, and will almost certainly negatively affect the price of most altcoins and the NFT market.

One part of Democrats' $3.5 trillion (sticker price) spending plan is to force banks to report to the IRS sums of inflows and outflows of bank accounts exceeding $600 per year in order to increase tax "compliance". If this is something that becomes law, I would expect people to move money into the crypto market, and conduct more transactions via crypto. I am not sure how much this will affect the price by early December, but long term, it will be something that is net positive for bitcoin.

The pending US government debt ceiling limit and associated drama have the potential to throw a wrench in the financial markets.

I strategically place my prediction in order to have the lowest price in order to take advantage of the negative effects of the removal of QE. I think this is probably still a strategy that gives me the best chance to win the contest. Given the above analysis, I might say that bitcoin has a good chance of ending up at a higher price than my prediction, even potentially higher than it is today, however as I am sure everyone knows, when bitcoin's price moves, it can MOVE. If the price were to end at say $75k in early December, the price could easily be 5 or 10% different in either direction a few hours before or after the deadline. This means I may have the price exactly right 6 hours before the deadline, but at the deadline, there might be 5 people who have bets closer to the actual price than my revised bet. This leaves me with the choice between making a guess of about $200k, $250k, $380k, or $430k. I don't see the price going up ~4x by December if the above tax law is implemented, and I am doubtful the price will go up ~8x by early December, absent something crazy happening that causes the fed to increase QE.

Given that a bet that the price will end at $430k results in a prize >~35x more valuable than the prize with my current bet, the EV of a revised bet to $430k is probably greater than my current bet if it was guaranteed that no one could place a bet above mine.

The best is for someone to do his own research, but this is clear enough (but not yet happened and occurrences might change over time), after halving, all-time-high were attained in 2012, 2016 and 2020. There were series of retracements and retests within, but halving can bring fomo.

I am just certainly believing bitcoin will increase above $100000 after next halving. Halving normally happens in every 210000 blocks mined as you know and this does not usually take up to 4 years (or will take approximately 4 years) and next halving is extimated to be February, 2024, but still far to know if it will be exactly that month. 2024 would likely be a long year for bull market.

Bitcoin was created in just 1 dacade ago, some people says bitcoin is no more young, truly Bitcoin is matured but yet young or not old in valuation. Very possible 3 to 4 trillion marketcap is attainable within the next 4 to 5 years.

But we should have in mind that as bitcoin marketcap increases, volatility will likely be decreasing.

Hmmm! Although, there is nothing impossible.

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I chose $26,242 while the resistance at $30000 was so strong, the price at $46300 presently, the only hope I have now is for the price to drop just like it did in March 2019 and 2020 which triggered another bull run. Bitcoin price is hard to predict in short term, but obviously clear bull is the result on long term, I mean 4 to 5 years from now.

Bitcoin has done crazy things before, so it could still happen the coming 3 months.

Even better: I'm willing to sell you 1 Bitcoin for $333,333 right now!

6 digits, within reach. My prediction, $333,333, I will concede that it’s not within reach during this current cycle. But I’m very confident within 5 years Bitcoin will surge to $500,000. It’s simply properly placed in its design, from currency issuance, to the incentive structure.

Please just don’t fall for quotes written by a single person or charts been made up by a person

The biggest mistake to many make IMO

Honestly, I'm too lazy now to do any analysis, so I will share quotes with which I absolutely agree (why I would not change my mind in the current situation).

[1] "Bitcoin has been highly correlated with SNP500 over the past five years" ^{[I understand that there will be a correction soon]}
[2] "It is likely that a potential correction could reach -60% of the peak and refresh the last low of March 2020"
[3] Consequences: "SEC threatened to sue Coinbase" and "Bubble NFT"
[4] "On Se 14, there will be data on inflation in the US, and on Sep 22 there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve and a decision on the interest rate"

I think not earlier than January. 

I do believe as well high prices are still whitin reach and can come way faster as we think....

No, but I believe my prediction will not be in range for the year after the flash crash of the week. But it might be in range for the current cycle, which I believe because Bitcoin is in an unusual situation because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve will BRRRRR more next year.

I wasn't talking about "lost" coins, but coins that had never technically existed to begin with. For example when Ripple foundation creates millions of XRP out of thin air they don't dump it on the market, they just hold it in their wallets and let a very small portion enter circulation. That way they only inflate the market cap by increasing supply without damaging the price (MC=supply*price).

That wouldn't be possible: many coins are lost, and many coins are in long-term storage. It would be interesting to see how many coins are actually traded, but it's also not possible to distinguish between someone selling coins, and someone just moving coins to another wallet.

Just a thought: what would happen to the gold market cap if we exclude gold that wasn't physically moved to a new owner during a year?

Or better yet try and use the REAL circulating supply of each of these altcoins instead of the FAKE one they report on coinmarketcap.com.
For example BNB, USDT, ADA and XRP are 100% premined and only a small percentage of that supply has entered circulation while the centralized authority owns the majority. Or ETH supply is about 70% premined and owned by its centralized authority.

Remove those out of circulation supplies and you suddenly see that bitcoin dominance market cap ratio shoots up to >90%.

No way, mine is still looking good. To be honest I don’t care who wins, I would like bitcoin to go much higher than my prediction which is also possible.

That's correct.
If this new "omg, dump, end of the world" wouldn't have happened, we may have had to adjust our guesses much higher; but now, we're just fine.

Not a chance.

Right on schedule.

This is the way.

Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason?

Well, I did not say that one of the coins or several could at least hypothetically approach the capitalization of bitcoin, but nevertheless, all this garbage one way or another at the moment has liquidity. I totally agree with your opinion about "fictional and fully controlled coins" and will continue to consider 99% of these coins to be real fiction. But the problem is also in the mistaken mentality, since "opinion leaders" mistakenly compare cryptoassets with stocks, as a consequence of the cryptomarket from the very beginning inherited several primitive abstract ingrained concepts.

Sorry, this is my fault, apparently I am not clearly expressing myself ^{[but it seemed to me that I expressed myself quite unambiguously]} ... I meant the percentage dominance of bitcoin to the total capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market (at a price of $ 50k ^{[Now the price is $ 50,000 / Total Cap 2.2T / 42% dominance]} and at a price of $100k per bitcoin ^[etc.]).

I believe you know this, but let me just save you the time of the calculation I do it from here

Circulatory supply estimate = 18.8 million
Price = $100000
Marketcap estimate = X

Marketcap = Price * Circulatory supply

                    = $100000 * 18.8 million

                    = $1,880,000,000,000

So with the present circulatory supply estimate, $1.8 trillion should get bitcoin to approximately $100000.