Topic: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! - page 8. (Read 7342 times)

Bitcoin price prediction in short term can be otherwise, we are all just predicting what could happen, but likely what will occur in short term can be against our analyses and speculations. But you are very right about one thing, even if what was analyzed and predicted was inaccurate, there is still accuracy in the long term spiculation which is all-time-high. The price of bitcoin can break resistance or fall below support, but the overall result of the price after long time is all-time-high.

Bitcoin had gone viral, many people have known bitcoin but many people are yet to invest, this is indicated in the total number of people making use of bitcoin and in bitcoin's marketcap which is just still $1.16 trillion in just 11 years, ceri it will get to over 2 trillion and later over 5 trillion later as bitcoin is easily accessible and people are getting to understand more about bitcoin. About the long term bitcoin price, with the wealth in the world and the constant depreciation of fiat by the government and the increasing adoption of bitcoin, the $60000 today will be a price bitcoin price will never dropped to in the future. Although, this can be long, but it will definitely happen.

I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations.  So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter.

Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too..

For example, I will admit that this passage through noman's land of $55k-ish to $80k-ish seems to be taking longer than I expected, but I still don't consider the noman's land thesis to be negated.. at least not yet... and even if any of us might frame some kind of "most likely to happen" scenario, if some variation of that happens or it gets completely obliterated by subsequent events, that still might not mean that our earlier framing of the matter was wrong.. but we still might need to consider if there might have been factors that we did fail to account for that ended up causing our previous prediction to be worse than it could have been... to the extent that making predictions even matter very much to tactics and strategies that we might have already set up that may well not matter to whether our predictions come true or not..

The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out.

Good.  And, of course, you can look at BTC's price dynamics in any way that you like, whether those kinds of theories about the existence of noman's land is helpful to you or not. 

Seems to me that if you treat bitcoin like any other asset, then you are prone to get yourself in trouble in terms of calling tops way too early.. which could either cause you to sell too much too early or failure to adequately prepare for more up that is on its way... but whatever, do what you like.



Largely I make those kinds of proclamations because I believe that it is better to prepare yourself financially and psychologically for any of those kinds of scenarios that are reasonably within possibilities of happening, and prepare less for less likely scenarios.  So in the past year or so, we had frequently been hearing theories that the BTC was cycle was going to top out this calendar year, so you could end up selling too much BTC too soon or failing to prepare for more UP if you end up being wrong about the top of the cycle being this calendar year.

I would also suggest that in BTC there are a decent number of HODLers who are not particularly attached to whether the top ends up being this calendar year versus if the top ends up dragging out into 2022 and potentially as late as the 3rd quarter of 2022.. and so surely if you are trying to time the tops and bottoms you have more potential issues in terms of making mistakes.. but if you employ strategies that are not as much concerned about timing, then you still may well be able to profit from the ups and downs of BTC (which I frequently assert to be one of the most inevitable of things in BTClandia) without attempting to engage in rash behaviors in regards to attempting to figure out exactly when the top might be or how much of a top the top might be.,. so in that regard, you might be asserting that HODLers are negatively affected by the extreme draw downs that have frequently happened in BTC (especially after explosive tops), but if HODLers are already prepared (both financially and psychologically) to just HODL through those kinds of seemingly crazy-ass cycles (maybe shaving small portions on the way up rather than shaving large portions), then it is harder to imply that they are damaged by such extreme price movements.

“In any particular moment” anything can happen, I humbly believe “this particular moment” is not a special case.


Because of macro-economic events, if you’re researching, they might prove us wrong in believing that Bitcoin’s surging bull market continues all thoughout 2022. Maybe it can, but only until first half of 2022. But it’s a test for Bitcoin, the toughest test.

Don't get me wrong.. For sure I consider 30% corrections to be possible in this cycle, just like it happened in the 2017 cycle several times.  I was largely commenting about what seems to be our price posture at this particular moment in terms of passing through the zone of the previous ATH.. which seems to make it a bit more difficult to achieve those same levels of correction (such as 30%).. not impossible, but just more difficult. 

I understand that this particular prediction game is aiming at early December, and there are even some people who have been postulating that the whole cycle could be over by this calendar year... and sure all of that could be correct - but with bitcoin having a more mature market including some of the BIGGER players around (including additional abilities to down vote the BTC price), it could take several more quarters for the peak for the cycle to play out.. and sure if we go into 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or even as far as the 3rd quarter of 2022, then it would start to have really strong odds of having quite a few 30% draw downs along the way, even while overall going up.

Interesting times for sure, and when we get into those BIGGER levels of corrections - even getting into the 20% arena, there are quite a few who end up getting shaken out, just like you suggested in your earlier post.

You’re right, it is “less likely”. I was merely illustrating the possibilities, and it was only an opinion based on the fact that Bitcoin is still indeed as volatile as it was during 2017. But extreme? I believe not.

if i could find a way to meet my 2011 self and explain the fact 10 years in the future, btc will crash to $3000. as that still is like 300 times its 2011 price of $10. so STACK MOAR CORN.

i know exactly what me past self would say:"so, looks like they were right about me doing all these drugs i use. still getting hallucinations." go away

tldr   dont bother

Oh my!!!  Holy shit!!!

Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations?  I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up..

I understand that anything is possible, but we should be considering what are more likely rather than extreme scenarios, even if extreme scenarios are also possible.

I had seen some posts upthread discussing our so far dip (if we want to call it that rather than labelling it as a pause in UPpity), and really if you look at the extreme of the local bottom so far, from $67,017 down to $59,634 we have about a 11% dip, and probably we are out of the noise territory.. so noise might be any dip that is less than 8%.. so we are out of noise territory and nearly into the area that is worthy of writing home to mom.. but not in any kind of panic stage yet.... .. and maybe the meaningful and common dips that attempt to scare the shit out of weak hands would be in the 15% to 25% territory.. and sure I understand that you are getting this 30% number from our previous dips during bull markets.. 30% dips  have not been common..

...but I would still assert that it is less likely to get any kind of dip that is of that extreme while we are passing through noman's land.. which is $55k to $80k... and sure I am not even saying that those considerable dips are not possible because we already know that anything is possible, but the more likely scenario.. especially since we already passed half way through noman's land and also surpassed our previous ATH of $64,895.. would be a continuation of UPpity.. and sure maybe a flash crash down to $55k-ish (which would be 18%-ish).. is reasonably within the cards.. .but anything too much greater than a 18% correction seems to be getting into more extreme scenarios.. and even though I would not rule out the more extreme scenarios from playing out.. I would not be presenting them as "givens" yet.. especially since we have only so far gotten 11% out of the correction, so far.. 18%?  sure.. 30% less likely... going up from here.. sure that would be reasonably within our current BTC price posture, too... Not easy to really know these short-term price directions except of attempting to consider what are more likely what are extreme and.. being prepared for any of the scenarios whether extreme or not.. while maybe not overly anticipating extremes that cause you to look like you are just a crazy nutjob, talking your book, disingenuous or perhaps not really understanding the asset class (king daddy) that you are attempting to analyze (again.. not labelling you, Wind_FURY, as any of these.. just responding to the 30% correction in these here times scenario that you brought up)..  

It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH.

So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak.

Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers.

Can you make one with the name of the winner based on the current price (on Bitstamp), and freeze the name when the Summer dip December prediction ends (December 7th  ......  00.00 CET)?

At this point, my best chance of winning is that same trader moving his money to bitstamp and moving the price to that same amount right as the deadline approaches and keeps it there until the deadline passes. After that, the price can go back up to $400k+ where it was trading on other exchanges at the time ☢️

Did you ask about this? 

See:

I believe not for those users in Binance.US. Proudhon can get a screenshot of yesterday’s candle of that, and claim his prediction DID become true. Bitcoin from $ATH crashed landed to < $10,000.

We salute him.

Now explain to your 2011-self that $3000 is a crash

wut

80% is a dip

crashes start around 95%

That's not a mini crash, it's barely 3%. I'd say a mini crash is like 20%, and a big crash would be 80%.
It's a hiccup at most

Bitcoin experienced a mini-crash, one of the first of the many new mini-crashes before resuming back to its surge to six digits. It’s normal, sers. It’s merely overleveraged traders having their accounts liquidated. A necessary process before the moon.