Topic: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! - page 16. (Read 7329 times)

If it is not too late, I would like to pick $12,200.00. If it is too late, I would like to pick $12,200 and make my prediction for fun.

Reasoning:
The FED currently has a super accommodative monetary policy that is resulting in rampant speculation. Banks are buying up housing left and right, sight unseen, meme stocks are skyrocketing for no reason other than some people with extra money in their bank account think it would be funny to make their prices go up, and so on...

The above monetary policy is also causing inflation and a lot of it. It is somewhat difficult to track inflation due to distortions caused by the lockdowns and the pandemic last year, however, two-year inflation is currently similar to that of when central banks are in the middle of raising short term interest rates, while the FED currently has short term interest rates at nearly the maximum low, and is taking action to lower long term interest rates via QE. There will become a point at which inflation becomes too high and the FED will have to respond by stopping QE and raising interest rates, and I think that time will be soon.

Once interest rates start to rise sufficiently, money will start to flow out of the speculative assets mentioned above. I believe this will also mean that money will flow out of crypto. To put things in context, speculative stocks such as GME should fall 95%+, and altcoins such as DOGE (that was supposed to be a joke) should fall by 99%+.

There are also things such as the eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance programs that are allowing people to avoid paying for housing costs in masse. I think a decent number of people are "investing" money they should be spending on housing on speculative assets, which would include crypto (including bitcoin). Once these programs end, people will need to pay back rent/mortgage payments, and will be forced to sell their speculative assets, regardless of fundementials.

Just saw this I would like Box 262 please , for a BTC price of 88,888 USD.

I might have bet slightly lower, but all those boxes are taken so...

as for reasoning new capital moves quickly to low mcap crypto ventures whenever Bitcoin gains momentum, so this time the rise might not be as exponential as the previous 4 year cases...

 According to confirmed sources, maths and sciences, El duderino_ is going to give me $5000 US for winning this prediction game.  Therefore the price of bitcoin will have to be $64,935 on that day.

 Will this suffice? 
SOMA = Straight Out of My Abacus.

if Elon dies today the price will be around ~$70,000 in dec 2021 

Elon please don't die I have invested in doge 

Box 268. please with a prediction of $98,989

I'm thinking from this Friday we will see a move happening, retail investment
will start to increase, more so in the 4th quarter as memories of 2019 take hold,
but $100,000 will provide massive sell pressure.

This is just how i'm thinking, nothing technical. I'm not known for my predictions
but thanks to @El duderino_ for the game

Please explain how you got to this prediction, as requested by El duderino_:

You need to predict a number, not a range. Also, I don't think posting just a graph qualifies for El duderino_'s request (see above). Please explain how you got to this prediction, and if you edit your post, make sure I don't overlook it (by sending me a PM).

Sorry, this box is taken. Please try again (may I suggest a tad more bullish, the next box is still available). If you edit your post, please PM me so I don't overlook it.

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(EDITED - First and second choices were taken)

I predict

$120,666
(slot 278. $120,563.98 - $122,975.25)

SOMA dynamics?

July-August Slow summer, with some bearish FUD under the spotlight (Grayscale unlock, China ban banana jam, etc.). Meanwhile, hodlers are silently, slowly, unconspicuously accumulating. From mid August onwards the price will settle in the 40k's.

Early September we'll start to see the buying pressure move the price a little. Hashrate climbing up again will be plain to see. October to mid November will be bulls over the prairie, and a retrace in late November to early December will bring us back to... what, like 75k?

End of year will be fireworks as it should. My prediction could be a bit early, meaning I expect my price to be met only by Dec 15 or so, right before the blow off beyond 200k.

SOMA

 The price will be $64 935 which puts me in box

 246. $63,975.26 - $65,254.76

 If it's not already taken.

 Thanks Mr .El duderino_!!

 

I have updated my previous price ticker with Dec 2021 predictions.

https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game-winner-dec-2021.html



Previous Jun 2021 game result still available at https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game.html

Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51

Not a lot of slots my bad.




Cheers hero

Thanks to Mansa Musa of bitcointalk aka El duderino_ for your awesome games.

I'm very bad at it so i will cheat and get help from the boss i mean google and here's my R&D

1. longforecast says December 2021 end of the month $28614 (damn that's too low I didn't like it)


2. According to a Finder.com survey respondents said BTC would reach an average price $51,951 and Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick noted that Bitcoin would hit $318,000 (wow those are some numbers we looking for, I'm loving it)




This analysis is via liteforex.

and average comes to $68,600 from liteforex

3. coinpriceforecast is also bearish if I say so, and 2021 year end price is predicted to be $36,578



4. tradingbeasts is also on the lower of the spectrum with average price to be $33,577



5. Ok last but not the least Pishevar has called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 via Twitter.


So now I have 5 numbers (or six) prices, what can I do with it I don't know :p

1. longforecast  $28614
2. liteforex survey $51,951, liteforex analysis  $68,600
3. coinpriceforecast $36,578
4. tradingbeasts  $33,577
5. Pishevar  $100,000

Keep in view above analysis from different sources, I'm predicting BTC price to be $53,220, that falls in box 236. range $52,482.00 - $53,531.63. Since I'm late and boxes from 236 to 242 are all taken. So I have to select the nearest available 235 or 243. Call me proudhon but I'm happy to be in the lowest box 235.

So I'm selecting $52,000 to be the BTC Price and box 235. $51,452.94 - $52,481.99
 

My record is pretty terrible on these, so I might as well give an extremely specific prediction and maximize how wrong I am.

July
USD monetary conditions are tightening substantially. Helicopter money programs are running out, M2 growth is slowing, and now the Fed is vacuuming up tons of excess money via reverse repo. This will suck money out of speculative areas such as BTC.

The US debt ceiling will be hit, and Congress won't do anything about it for a while, but this won't cause an immediate issue. CPI will be at expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be flat.

Some people are worried about the GBTC lockups expiring in the middle of this month, but I don't think that this will have much effect at all. If someone created GBTC shares just to arbitrage the premium, then they would've hedged their exposure to BTC; when they sell/redeem their GBTC shares, unwinding their hedge should make their net impact on the market neutral. If someone created GBTC shares because they wanted to be long BTC, then they knew the risks, they probably intended BTC to be a permanent part of their portfolio, and they're probably not going to exit their BTC position at a huge loss just because they now can.

BTC price: $30k
August
A wave of anti-crypto regulatory attention/action will be announced in the US and elsewhere with ransomware used as a fear tactic, but this will be too vague & insubstantial to have more than a short-term price impact. (Regulatory crackdowns could be very damaging to the ecosystem and hurt the BTC price long-term, but I don't think that anything like this will take effect or severely hurt sentiment before the end of the year.)

CPI will be historically high, but below expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be somewhat down.

BTC price: $28k
September
The US's inability to issue debt will cause some sort of moderate-severity market hiccup, such as a shortage of collateral causing rates to spike up. This will be mostly-resolved through some sort of emergency Fed action, but it will shake the market's confidence.

Simultaneously, as helicopter money programs have fully wound down and bank accounts will have gotten much more empty than previously, people will start realizing that they need money. But the job market will become tight very quickly due to the stampede of people looking for jobs and a significant slowdown in economic activity by this point. Because they need money, and also due to concern about the market hiccup mentioned in the previous paragraph, people will sell their liquid assets such as bonds, stocks, and BTC. As the market goes down from this, it will start a cycle of panic selling. There will be a 10% drop in the stock market and a 20% drop in the BTC price, though about half of this will be recovered in a couple of weeks.

The Fed will change policy to achieve maximally-loose monetary conditions; this is bullish for BTC.

From this point forward, CPI, growth, and employment will all be below expectations each month.

BTC price: $25k
October
The Democrats will enact a 15% global minimum corporate tax, increase the US corporate tax rate to 25%, and do Biden's proposed capital gains tax increase but with a rate of 28% instead of the proposed 43.4% and without Biden's proposed retroactivity. This is slightly negative for BTC (there will be some selling to front-run the tax increase), and very bad for growth stocks. Despite the prospect of infrastructure dollars, the stock market will on the whole drop 5% immediately and then start a slow downward slide lasting many months, but BTC will not drop much.

BTC will look attractive compared to other assets, especially to the many institutions who have already been eyeing it for a while but have been scared to dip their toes in. Like gold, it will be seen as a hedge against future low growth. Growth stocks also perform well in low-growth periods, but they will be negatively impacted by the global minimum corporate tax; BTC pays no corporate tax. Even though inflation will not actually be especially high at this point, there will still be a lot of fear of inflation due to all of the money-printing, and BTC will also be seen as a hedge against inflation. BTC will have low correlation with markets in at least the latest drop, and the price will look attractive. Robinhood will start to offer very attractive interest on BTC and other crypto holdings, similar to BlockFi - way more than you can get with any USD savings account. Due to all of these factors, BTC sentiment will turn very bullish.

BTC price: $40k
November
A BTC ETF will finally be approved. Pretty much everyone in the financial world thinks that this is long overdue, and the number of applicants keeps growing. A Bitcoin ETF would probably attract a billion dollars in assets within the following 12 months, and this direct inflow alongside the indirect boost in sentiment from the approval will add napalm to the already-hot BTC market.

CPI will fall below 2% as supply issues are mostly cleaned up and the worsening consumer balance sheet hurts demand. This hurts the narrative of buying BTC because of inflation, but this is only a small part of BTC's value proposition, and people will still worry about inflation even if it's low at the moment. Long-term, I think that the macro environment is favorable to BTC whenever wider economic growth is low, regardless of the level of inflation.

December 7 price: $72,046 (box 251)

(I might've gone a few boxes higher, but they were taken. This seems to be a popular price range!)

Your coffee grounds landed on a box that's taken already. Please try again, and check the list to make sure it's available. If you edit your post, PM me so I don't miss it.

Thanks, that means I'm in

@bitmover: did you see my previous post? Your box is taken. After the effort you put into your prediction, it would be a waste if you don't add a prediction that's still available.

Well I wanted to give the dude a decent read for my prediction as he has certainly earned a bit of effort for his selfless contributions but I am completely baffled by the last few years so all I can do is SOMA away another swing and a miss. 

With that being said I think composite man has been growing in power these last years since the 2017 run-up and is pulling a fakeout atm trying to accumulate for the next Bullrun. I think the wyckoff pattern is a real thing but it is not written in stone and I think those that try to trade by using it are going to get burned and left out in the cold. Composite Man knows you know and will use that knowledge against you, he is a shadowwy figure currently composed of your adversaries in the form of the likes of Goldmann ball sacks and Morgan Stanley (no relation to Paul).

#HoldersUnaffected!

Ohh yeah my guess is $66,666 murikan.

Loyce … no pending needed for your guess 

Weekly Time Frame is super Bullish but I think it will be terminated by Monthly TF. The monthly RSI is not looking strong enough.
I'm ultra confused to guess which direction the market will move. FUD surrounds us like a Kraken.

Don't have enough earned merit to join. whatever, Best of luck everyone.. 

Which, unfortunately, falls in a box that is taken already. Please try again

Sorry, just a random number is not enough. El duderino_ wants to read your thinking reasoning and see a small effort. Please add this, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.

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5 days left to join:

$116,195

Just random number between 14000 and 330000 generated by randstuff.ru
Predicting the exact price of bitcoin is like guessing on a coffee grounds, so my way of knowing the future course is about the same - I use a number generator in a range of all the variations of previous participants.

First of all, thank you El duderino_ and LoyceV for such amazing event.

I want to participate and follow the rules, explaning my prediction and the reason behind it, but that's very hard for me.

I am not a trader and I don't like TA either. I tried to trade a few times in my life and I only got stressed and lost money lol.


What I really do is to make a decision to buy an asset which I believe it is worth having it. If for some reason I think that asset  is not worth holding anymore, I just sell it. Usually not all at once...

I sold a some of my bitcoin  stash when we were about 50-65k, a little each month (in Brazil cryptocurrency are tax free if we sell only 6k USD per month, and that is what i did for a few months). I also sold some ethereum  and exchanged a few eth to btc in this deep because the ratio was good. I think those were good decisions but I wouldn't call that a "swing trade" becuase I hold those assets for years and years....


But I will try to make my prediction. First of all, I will not sell significant part of my Bitcoin stash this year, only if we reach 100,000 (which I believe is highly unlikely). I am not selling because I believe the movement is still upwards in long term (more than 5 years).

I was taking a look at some trading view ideas and I particularly liked this one. Then I made a few changes and made my own to Dec 7. The minium price there would be 60k! lol, that's quite good to me.


Based on that, I will choose my favorite number:
69,200

I think it’s a good idea…

Removing them which fail to understand the small effort/request….

Giving away should be awesome and only a small thing is asked to participate …

I don’t ask much … but it has to be fair for everyone