Maybe you don't get it? You seem fixed on your point.
yeah, because Ive been debating (and predicting) this since before the first asic was even announced, I think Ive heard all angles.
If the chips are very cheap to produce (and they are) and the development is expensive (and it is), then it doesn't cost the manufacturers much more to put out more chips, which might be what KNC Miner is planning on doing.
Sure, they can (and will) lower prices per unit, but not to the point of obvious profitability without dramatically increasing demand. So either they must leave most of that demand unfulfilled or the increased supply will render the profitability moot again.
Its quite simple, there is too much demand for unprofitable mining gear. The only thing you can do about that, is not buy any.
I think that is only half of it. Future miners as well as those of today make their calculations based on the current Btc/usd ratio, maybe a bit less. My calculations and decision to buy a Jupiter were always based on the amount of bitcoins I could have bought with the same amount.
I expected to get around 86-90 btc out of a Jupiter, so I - as many other - thought the price was fair. I still think it is, but I don't think lowering the price to clear profitability will influence the decision of many people to buy more.
It was the same with GPU's back then. I decided not to buy High end GPU's because I thought they were overpriced and ROI was at 2 months or more. I bought btc instead and got a nice bonus out of it.
Despite what many think, btc miners are the minority of bitcoin holders/users now. Most people trade with them and as long as the mining unit is not a plug and play unit only the minority with linux knowledge and motivation will buy them, even if a high end unit "only" costs 2,5k instead of 7k. With the words of my partner: "What? I thought you plug it in and it generates Bitcoins! That is to difficult to understand, show it to me when it runs."
