Of course the recent jumps are high, this is the major transitionary period between GPUs to ASICs (well the ones that have been delivered).
Every current wave of deliveries obviously increases the network hashrate significantrly more than the last. That's obvious.
All this talk of genesis block calculations is nonsense.
It takes a cumulative view of difficulty increases, and that is untenable in the long term, unless the network can be continuously increased in proportion.
So where the current hashrate stands it is easy to double. Where the network stands in November, it will be less easy to double.
Assuming the increase will remain linear over time, when the hashrate introduced won't remain linear over time invalidates such arguments, most of which is FUD.
P.S. Timmers, I sure hope you aren't really wishing for war.
Every current wave of deliveries obviously increases the network hashrate significantrly more than the last. That's obvious.
All this talk of genesis block calculations is nonsense.
It takes a cumulative view of difficulty increases, and that is untenable in the long term, unless the network can be continuously increased in proportion.
So where the current hashrate stands it is easy to double. Where the network stands in November, it will be less easy to double.
Assuming the increase will remain linear over time, when the hashrate introduced won't remain linear over time invalidates such arguments, most of which is FUD.
P.S. Timmers, I sure hope you aren't really wishing for war.
I agree with you conceptually, "that is untenable in the long term".
The problem here is that we don't know what long term is. This is a new experience so we don't know how it may develop.
The comparison to the GPU transition holds until a certain point. ASICs are much more powerful and since they're being developed for a specific task, they are being constantly improved. With GPUs you could only buy more GPUs (linear increase), but if you have a successful ASIC (AVALON B1) then you make a lot of bitcoins you can use to buy a few of the new gen ASICS, and consequentially there is an exponential increase. I agree that this improvement will reach a ceiling at some point, but we don't know when that would be.
On the one hand we have many players developing 2nd 3rd and 4rd generation chips, and even if they are late in the game they will still try to sell their chips at any rate even if losing money. Once the costs of developing a new chip are accounted for, producing more chips and miners is significantly cheaper, which means they can flood the market with discounted prices.
On the other hand the viable mining operation for let's say, a Jupiter, is mostly 6 months, and in best case scenario, 12 months. That is not "long term" in this scenario, considering that we will see a few new miners before the year ends.
Best,
