Topic: Talk of China economy collapsing in 3rd/4th Qrt 2014 reaching Fever Pitch - page 3. (Read 10504 times)

You're right about the Germans.  I added them postscript.  Russia was actually only invading to build a buffer between it and Germany. Nowadays Russia is more interested in selling oil and gas than to invade.

One potential problem area is Southern Europe.  Won't take much to push Greece, Portugal, Spain or Italy into a Euro exit.

Oh... I guess you must have just stopped reading there...

If you read the next line you will find my conclusion. When I said "It's just not going to happen..." I was referring to an invasion event in general. Not the outlook of success of such an event if it were to happen. I suppose I could have rephrased that last sentence to make it more clear.

The cost-risk-benefit ratio is just too low.

I don't think Europeans even feel like invading anyone any more. When was the last time a western European invaded anyone? WWII? I think you forgot to put "Germany" on that list of invading European countries - sure, they didn't do much in Africa or South American but they did a right old job in Europe Russia come to think of it as well.

Agree.  China never invaded anyone.  It was the Brits, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish that did all the invading.  Plus Japan in WW2.  Ok, China may have invaded Tibet but that's about it.

China wants to sell you stuff so they can buy oil and iron ore to build empty apartments and feel rich.  The Indians want to work in your airports and IT companies.  No one is doing any invading as long as the Europeans back off on their superiority mindset and colonial attitudes.  If the Germans don't try to wipe out the Russians again, everything will be fine.

Actually, the last major war was the Muricans in the Middle East.  

err ... this for start:

"The American Military is nothing compared to the strength of the American people when it comes to the thought of any type of homeland invasion... I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that force.

China knows it, the world knows it... You can't take over America by force"

and this:

"WWWIII, China comes to collect their debt!"

Who's going on about an invasion of America? I don't see anybody worried about that... I'm not too worried about an invasion from space either.

I'm not so proud of my nation at the moment. I spent the majority of my life being proud. But the last few years have really had me questioning where this nation is headed... I'm proud of what we were and I hope we can get back there some day.

I am to please

Have you traveled in Asia? Not trolling you, genuinely interested if you have real knowledge of Asia and how it has genuinely developed in the last 30 years.

Why are people going on about an invasion of America? Are you guys that paranoid? An invasion from space is more likely

I don't even remember the last time I turned on the TV.

Also, your reflexive ignorance is amusing at best

I guess you watch FOX news ....

That's one of the great traps - they THINK they can take over America 'by mind' LOL

As if no one's aware of what they are trying to do.


Also, WE are the ones that will be collecting debts. America is favoring a certain degree of stability and peace so as to avoid another world war that would severely upset the world and cause needless casualties (better to nip it all in the bud like saddam hussein and gaddaffi). That means America understands it must make a degree of economic concession to prop up some economies so that such moderate degree of prosperity will enable positive growth and environment.

The day America decides it had enough (it just raised a brow last time with forcing the chinese to revalue their currency by printing US dollars), is the day many nations will find out the actual deficiencies in their supposedly 'strong' economies and 'people'.

That is, unless we like you. Like the Europeans (no matter how much you bitch at us, you are still more or less our cousins)

By the way, the so-called 'BS' about being a proud member of a nation is some severely delusional shit. Everyone's proud of their nation and heritage. So are Americans.

Deal wit it  

Lol

Why position troops on the coast when we've already given them thousands of acres everywhere across the USA? They even have "economic zones" where they pay no taxes and operate under the rule of Chinese law. Similar to Native American reservations except owned by China...

The American Military is nothing compared to the strength of the American people when it comes to the thought of any type of homeland invasion... I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that force.

China knows it, the world knows it... You can't take over America by force until you've taken over America by mind... Unless you can convince Americans not to fight you can't win in conventional warfare. It's just not going to happen...

P.S

This isn't one of those "America the proud" BS posts. America pretty much sucks right now but certain things like an invasion would tend to bring Americans to a flash boil...

I would like to notify you dooms day fools about a simple little fact: For every dollar America owes to foreigners, foreigners owe 0.89 dollars back. What, you thought America doesn't lend money and invest? Or maybe you think geopolitical finances work the same as personal finances and you can't lend money when you are borrowing?

I think many people are grossly childish and misinformed about what a national debt means. Especially the chinese who bitch about how much US owes them money - because they probably owe more to US if you count in the countless IP and criminal level espionage committed by chinese industrial spies against US and its allies. Most people never even had a slightest inkling that economies and finances of that scale operate very differently from petty personal money problems.


Here's the deal: For every dollar it owes, America also lends 0.89 dollars to the world. Since the interest rates paid by America is one of the lowest in the world, and since other nations issue higher interest to attract American investment (matter of relative stability, etc), that means America actually MAKES money.

What about the massive public debt? Let's break it down: Right now, the debt is hovering around the same as US GDP. Roughly 2/3 to 3.5/5 of that is owed by US government to AMERICAN PEOPLE.

That's right. We owe 66 to 70% of our government debt to ourselves.

What about those crazy 'foreign' debts? They account for 33% to 30% of our entire government debt. China holds little over 1 trillion USD of that money, which accounts for 20% of foreign debt, but actually less than 9% of the entire US government debt. Out of around 17 trillion dollars, we don't owe the chinese 16 trillion. Not 12 trillion. Not 5 or 4 trillion. 1 trillion.


Also, what about the chinese debts? I know personally that many chinese engage in many off-the-books loans and financial activities that many people who are used to filing out income tax returns don't have a clue about. In that world, the 'norm' is not what is official - rather, doing things officially is something of an exception. Many things are done informally and without much public profile. This 'shadow' economy is actually considered a norm to the point where going to file taxes and insisting on public oversight is thought of as a naive joke - not street smart enough. These are not good enough to prop up an economy.  Its empty and pathetically over emphasized housing disaster makes US subprime mortgage crisis look benign.



More over, the chinese economy is too dependent upon their manufacturing sector. They can't grant middle-income level jobs to half of their working class citizens - their social structure requires a degree of outright discrimination between wealth classes, the kind of separation and discrimination that makes apartheid look tame in comparison. They are running out of resources to fuel those manufacturing jobs - which is why they are so hungry for african resources.


A chinese leader once said their greatest dread was 'trying to keep up at least 5% GDP growth a year'. What does this mean about china's supposedly 'great' GDP growth? There's lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics. The old joke about two idiots making a bet about eating a bucket of shit and ending up 'increasing their gdp by two fold' because they bet against each other twice starts making more sense in this regard.

Does that seem incredulous? I would say it's realistic. More realistic than chinese would care to admit.

I believe that objective and realistic view is necessary here. Chinese economy is standing on shaky grounds that is more dependent on the world than world is dependent on the chinese. Already, US manufacturing is moving back to US, or otherwise leaving china for places that manufacture (note I said 'manufacture', not make) just as well and for cheaper prices than the chinese - south east asia, latin america comes to mind. They are just as hard working if not even more so, disregarding all that ignorant bitching from the chinese  and asians in general about how they think they are the hardest working people around (they make a show of it - other people are much more capable). In fact, the majority of so-called 'asian miracles' primarily owe their source of success to western markets and the need for US to shore up a distracting counter towards its traditional primary adversary, the USSR. All those asian nations only really took off after direct and indirect assistance by US as a useful tool against communist expansion (japan, taiwan), or through series of economic benefits offered by US government in terms of trade and market offers (korea, china).



TLDR; be objective, and turn off the 'china strong' bitchfest. Strong nations are not forced to revalue their currency when another simply prints more out and lets you take the hit for 15% inflation on your food stuff.

I'd say it's clear who holds the better hand.

WWWIII, China comes to collect their debt!

Move the civilians to the mountains now and position the troops on the coast, stat!

Yeah, the bitcoin price has really crashed since your posted that

Looks like the PBOC just injected 250B rmb into their banking system.

Before the 90's most people in China had no access to household credit or even credit cards.  In such an environment, it makes sense to save. Nowadays, people are getting more access to credit.  Therefore it makes sense to take out a huge loan to buy an apartment as a form of forced savings and as an investment.

Saving money in the current environment is bad for the ordinary person as their savings is being diluted by rampant inflation.  Therefore, Chinese people invest in property and they buy trust products (which turn into company loans on the other side of the ledger) and they do lending schemes etc...

Even though people are saving money in China, you will find that more and more Chinese people are taking out huge loans to buy apartments nowadays.  

So, it is not true that China is a great nation of savers.  Overall, their credit growth in 2013, was the highest of any nation on the planet, at 49% of GDP per Fitch adjusted Total Social Financing figures.

The motivations of the Chinese are exactly the same as the West, only the economic model is different.  

Id have to agree the West is every bit as calculating. in this way, its all a big game of chess and beggar thy neighbour.

But you are contradicting yourself - 'they aren't historically a nation of savers. they are savers because'. Asian countries especially have traditionally been savers not because they have no access to credit but because they have never trusted their rulers and / or have been subject to invasions over the centuries etc.

As a recent example, pillaging Asia pre and during WW2 netted Japan untold wealth which they shipped back to the Home islands [don't believe the 'they were broke after ww2 rubbish]. This was multi generational wealth handed down over the centuries. Once their supply routes were blocked in 1944 they buried it underground - thousands and thousands of tons of gold, jewels etc, which was eventually dug up by OSS/CIA & Marcos throughout the Phillipines aka Yamashita's treasure. Getting a bit sidetracked but the billions of dollars it represented back then has been used for nefarious geo political purposes until this day. 


Also agree the potential bomb gets bigger and bigger as time rolls on.

Newbie with 2 activity reporting this?  I call FUD. Driver side is undamaged.  Plus picture of CEO is Bobby Lee not Huobi CEO. Very suspicious.