A shorter retarget window (with smaller max changes) is probably called for.
not sure about that : current estimations shows an estimated difficulty at next retarget block of 44059 (in 161 blocks)
(this varies a lot, due to the insane increase in hashrate seen yesterday)
This is higher than previous decrease, where it went down to 20k diff.
The next 2160 blocks after this retarget will be quite crazy, but then diff should increase to 160k or so, a much more reasonable value imho, with current hashrate (i saw more 3TH/s at coinotron recently).
Actually in the process of rewriting a pool engine (actually, pool engine is rewritten, website and extra tools on their way), this puts quite some stress on the infrastructure, and more will come in a few more blocks (123 at the moment). Hopefully, things will stabilize right after the next 2160 crazy blocks we're gonna see in a few hours.
But i agree, profitability/markets will play an important role there. On a short-term range, reducing the retarget window may indeed help, but on the long-term it shouldn't change anything. Hopefully, hashrate will stabilize once at 160k diff.
EDIT : new estimated diff : 43887 (in 67 blocks) ; this is gonna hurt :p
43783 (in 19 blocks)
Pretty much what you predicted happened last night. Diff dropped to 40-something k and my cgminer was literally just endless lines of "Stratum from pool 1 detect new block" (solo mining). The block times were about 5 to 10 seconds. Somebody made a lot of TRC!
As of this morning I wake up to find diff raised to 175k to compensate. Now its going to be a very slow march to get it back down. Still ~11 TH/s on the network... wonder how long it will stay.
There is now a mandatory Terracoin wallet update. View the whole thread here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-terracoin-trc-est-2012-1364146