Topic: That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake. - page 3. (Read 8688 times)

in fact on the forex market, the pairs are alot more predictable, i bet there is a greater manipulation there than in bitcoin

they basically play everytime in the same range, with some time few shift on the up or down range, i've seen it immediately, in the few weeks that i traded with bitcoin on a broker

I don't doubt what you said about Bitstamp, maybe this is why Gemini has low volume? They jumped through all the hoops to get regulated, and whales who can't cheat the system have little incentive to trade there?

Exactly. I don't do a lot of stock trading but it seems the managed markets will freeze trading on a stock when it starts to plummet to quickly but there is no such manipulation of bitcoin.

you realize that if the market was predictable, that would mean its fake... right?

Actually, the event which caused me to start this thread, was far worse than the Bitfinex bot conspiring to push the market up to trigger my stop (which proves to me that much of the volume on these exchanges is padding, otherwise it would have been far too expensive to run market up for paltry little handful of BTC from my own trade, and probably just a few other traders with same idea..may as well post this again:




When I started this thread. Some whale had just ramped Bitstamp, up to a point where a whole bunch of Stop Buy orders were placed, just above the 'breakout' point. BTC on Stamp spiked from $325 up to $355 in a matter of a few minutes. The other exchanges followed but the whale on Stamp then dumped it right back down and killed the move. What this basically is, is some Stamp whale, who has both access to the order book, and front running privileges to the exchange, to ensure that his sell orders are the ones that get filled first when he ramps, and triggers the Stop Buys that he can see all placed up above the $345 level.

This is corrupt at the very least, and whilst these are unregulated exchanges, I would imagine that their is some Anti Fraud law that would also make this illegal, just as the Finex bot swiping any customers Stop Orders within easy touching distance of spot in order to fund the super expensive exchange infrastructure, will also be illegal.

The exchanges aren't fake.

The same market mechanics observed with stocks or forex avail to BTC on a relatively liquid exchange like BFX.

As with the stock market, the bitcoin market requires expensive infrastructure.  Someone has to pay for it.

There is a stochastic component to the price behavior, and it is such that it maximizes revenue extraction to keep the infrastructure going.

If you understand how market structure develops, you can avoid being the steady funder of the infrastructure, and let other unwary traders be the beast of burden.

 
 

For the exchanges which charge fees, the volume is probably real. So the 0% fee exchanges, the volume is fake.

Bitcoin is as real as any market out there.
The bitcoin market is unpredictable, like you said but that doesn't mean that it's fake at all.
Know what you get yourself into before stepping foot in it.

When the price of bitcoin increase to $10,000, the price will be more stable. It is difficult for whales to move the price.

If the price can stay above $350 by the end of the year, it is excellent. In the meanwhile, the price volatility should also stay low.

Like stock market, the price will go up or down all the time. When there is good news, the price might go down. It is unpredictable.

Manipulation is big with bitcoin, i can't disagree on that. But let's be fair it's in most of the markets where whales are present. Perhaps it is jealousy since we are no whales and can't do anyting then to speculate..

The market isn't fake. Go out on an exchange and buy bitcoin with real dollars...

That being said, the market is manipulated by some very big whales. Their attention could be; attention; profit or something else.

In a few years when there are more supporters, this game will be over.

i dont think that the whole market is fake i must admit that sometimes the price might be affected by whales and that the price is unpredictable but its ok for me

I don't think it's possible to manipulate a market of this size without a capital of millions of dollars unlike minor alternative cryptocurrencies, and even if there was a player this big in BTC it would be a risk to them as well as they wouldn't be sure of the reaction of the market to their pump.

No. You know there's this new thing the kids are doing, called "fact checking"? Finex closed just above 320 on 31 December, ditto for Stamp.

Once the long term holders, and there are plenty, get a hold of enough coins its only going up. This will take a while yet. The halving will help and the next one in 4 1/2 years is the big one. Until then the holders will keep buying and eventually nobody will sell below $500, then $1,000. I'd give it 5-10 years till $1,000 is the floor, but once this happens its never going below that ever again. From there it will go to a $2,000-$5,000 floor much faster. I wouldn't count on that for at least 10 more years.

There are some serious long term holders and the supply is reasonably limited, so one day nobody will be selling below a certain price anymore. Right now that price is $200. I can say for sure that nobody will ever sell coins below $200 again, and if they do they will get bought up over $200 within days. This will take quite some time, but one day the hoarders will own the market.

Japanese Yen since 1992 ?
Argentine Peso ?
Asian currency crisis of the late 1990's ?
Russian RBL this year ?
Greek-bond monkeybusiness since 2010 ?

Now MatTheCat, how much did you bet and from where may I collect a truckload of bitcoins or gold ? (I'll take either thank-you)

It's a chance you take with any investments that you make. Sometimes you win some and sometimes you lose some.

Going from $200 to $500 is a huge, I never expected it to stay at $500. $300 is a reasonable growth for this year.

In short term, the price is unpredictable. In long term, the price will go up. Just do not buy at the top of every pump.