Topic: That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake. - page 6. (Read 8670 times)

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

One theory is that Bitcoin is a new asset class somewhere between a currency and a hard-money commodity, ultimately to capture a large share of the world's store of value. If indeed this be true, the only globally useful aspect of trading is in price discovery for this new monetary asset. Chaotic churn should be expected in such a case - whether or not whales are moving markets. TA -- being based upon market heuristics driven by crowd psychology from extrapolations from other asset classes -- is likely to be fully inapplicable.

If your trading strategies are not working, you may need a new strategy. If you believe in the long-term success of bitcoin, a workable strategy might be to buy as much as you can afford today, and hodl as long as you can stand it -- as in years.

Welcome to the world of unregulated currency trading.

That is not trading at that point, its investment and you have to risk that the loss may be total which is possible with anything.   Trading will sell at a loss as and when the original premise is no longer true, that typically a short term rise has not occured.    What he might do is consider options of some kind, which is risk but capped off to certain set gains and losses.  Total risk, never selling, hodl or however its put is step in the wrong direction except with really small amounts especially on a personal investor who cannot write off the losses over six years like limited company may

I dunno, there are some pretty sharp cookies out there.....there is a dude called Brian Beamish for one, who has a very good track record of calling Bitcoin......but did I listen to him when the top was in? Did I listen to him when he suggested a retracement to the long term 61.8% Fib level before he would even consider going long Bitcoin again? Did I listen to him when he posted  on twitter whether they were really going to take this back down to $300?

Nope!

Did I fuck. During the pump n dump, I went from being an early investor and early proft taker, to FOMO merchant, and watched substantial gains turn to substantial losses, and I was bag holding, and I was blocking out my anguish with copious doses of hopium, which was clouding mv outlook.

However, in Bitcoin especially, Fib retracements and Gann support/resitance lines really do seem to hold. Yesterday when I went net short, before being frightened back into market (at a loss) by this whale and his bullshit activity, I had first zone of resistance on the anticipated drop at $315. This was based on both Fib and Gann supports. If that doesn't hold, then it is back down to ~$280, where if we are in a bull market, support definitely will hold around this area. If we go there, we will likely get a puncture right through this support, before a strong rebound up to the $280 support level, which will hold. How to determine whether the market is more likely to go down to test support or go up to test resistance, is best determined using momentum indicators and gauging where the balance of probabilty lies. This is what I done, and decided that the balance of probability was a test of lower support levels, and it turns out I was right, except in between then and now, was that fucking whale on Bitstamp and my impulse reactionary response to what I thought was the market defying all expectation, and breaking up.

Go open up a BTC chart on Trading View. Go and look at any part of Bitcoins trading history, take significant highs and lows, and apply Fib and Gann to them. You may be astonished with how so many significant market turning points occur in the zones pin pointed by the Fib and Gann drawings.

As for right now, For a short term trader, Bitcoin is a no trade in my view. We have already had most of the downside momentum, but there is still room for more. For a long term investor, Bitcoin is still in a no buy zone for the same reasons. If it gets down to mid-upper $200s, then that is a definite buy, and will be where the pumpers and dumpers load up their lorries. For a stupid fucking bag holding, profit squandering, loss realising tosser like me, Bitcoin is a sit and hold and take the short term pain, cos in the long run, it is good until at least $750......although I will no doubt be back to trading soon enough, chopping and changing my mind at the least little quirk in the market, pissing $$$ all over the floor in my usual style.

How can this be suprise? After 1 year of analysing i stopped following the analyze 'guru's' with their fibonacci etc.

It is manipulated > yes
Is that bad > no

With every price rise more and more people get into bitcoin. And now it is just about waiting...

If only 1 multinational will 'do' something with bitcoin others will follow and more people will adopt it. Hence the market will be supply & demand without big whales making the market.

Actually, I'd say that this is the exact OPPOSITE of an Efficient Market.  In an efficient market, news and events are equally available to all and all factors are priced int at any given point in time.  Bitcoin is an inefficient market.  Information is asymmetrical.  There are market makers and bigger players who can manipulate or at least influence prices.

We don't have equal and symmetrical information about the ASSET, even, as there are no 10K's or 10Q's.  Prices are not based on underlying fundamentals such as earnings or revenues. 

Spaceman_Spiff says:


This is EXACTLY right.  It's the only way to be involved.  You better have some method of figuring out what the "fair value" is to you.  Personally, I do it based on money supply.  I've made some estimates of usage and velocity for the year 2020, then I discount it back to present value (at a pretty aggressive discount rate, I might add, because there is a lot of risk).  I buy if it's below and sell if it's above.  I should add that bitcoin has a tendency to overcorrect massively, so I buy when I think bitcoin is about 30% BELOW vuduchyld's "fair value" and I sell when I think it's 30% above.

Oh, and finally, you have to realize this is a speculation, not an investment.  Use the appropriate piece of your portfolio reserved for high-risk and hopefully high-reward plays.
 

 

Yep.

I learned important lessons about controlling impulse, exercising discipline, keeping emotions out the equation, and done some meticulous TA, and concluded that the market was far more likely to go down, than go up. My first likely resistance point was $315, however, I suspected that wouldn't hold and that the floor will be found more in the $280 zone. The more I looked at the charts, the more I became convinced of a correction....so I SOLD! I left my computer for a bit, and unfortunately for me, I return just as this whale was pumping. Now, knowing what a vigorous break above a consolidation range normally means, I panic bought, at some $6 more than I orginally sold for, and witnessed the shit that was to follow. So now I am back in Bitcoin, at a higher price than which I exited the market (after having already taken horrendous losses on pump n dump), and totally against the momentum of the market, which I happened to have correctly read.

This recurring theme of reading the market correctly, but somehow not trading it, and then trying to compensate for missing out by placing wrong trades, really fucking pisses me off. So in the end, I resolved to be a hapless holder of Bitcoin, I am not only missing out on this move down, but I am being punished by it, because despite having forecast it correctly on this occasion, the splashes of the whales have frozen me in my tracks, cos I know with these fuckers about, Bitcoin can go in any direction, without any warning, and is totally unpredictable.

I can't reasonably expect to be able to play these markets with all these unpredictable X-Factors hovering around the exchanges, so I am either a holder of Bitcoin long term, or I get the fuck away from it.

I am currently a holder of Bitcoin, and am now watching the market do, what I predicted it was going to do, before getting all flustered by the whale's splashes and reversing my position, and I can tell you, after having lost the amount of Fiat I have lost allowing emotions to taint my market outlook, it is fucking galling having to witness this, again.

Incidentally, Bitcoin needs 'traders' in order to provide liquidity. If the whales continue to scare traders away, then their aint no liquidity, except for them. That isn't a healthy market and not a market which is likely to grow. As in other markets, I think the Bitcoin exchanges need to make it public knowledge, who is making trades on their platforms, that way, we can see who is doing the big buying and selling, and we can see when there is blatant market moulding going on.

i.e. Entity A, erects Massive Bid Wall, 5 minutes later, entity A devours own Bid Wall. !0 minutes later, Entity A erects massive Ask Wall, etc etc....that kind of shit needs to be transparent.

Really i am a bit disappointed when i check how much cost a bitcoin.
I also think that the market is fake and the chinese people know how to pump/dump the price.
Market is really being manipulated and we know this bad fact

That is it. You made a wrong move and got screwed over. The market is fine, as volatile as it has ever been with Bitcoin. Very simple trading rule, never sell lower than you bought, even if the price movement scares the shit out of you. Most bad traders give up after a couple weeks or further down movement. This is wrong. And if you trade with money you don't own and need to get back, don't blame the market. You are the only one to blame.

I mean the move was nothing more than market makers clearing the way for their next move.

They've ran the numbers and that move is what they needed to execute their next strategy.

One incision here and it's off to the races.

They just reorienting the table in the way that works for their next move.

The reason it went crashing back down, was because the whale pushed Bitcoin high enough to trigger a bunch of Stop Orders, into which he would no doubt have been mass selling and when that burst had run out of juice, he dumped the remainder of what he had acquired from the pump.

There may well be large resistance at $350, but it would have been broken through, had this whale had the desire to see the market go that way. The big players can pretty much manipulate this market anyway they want, sell where they want, and buy where they want. Bitcoin is a trading shark's wet dream.

If you really believe so, then deal with it.  Stop using leverage, and stop trading short-term movements.  If it is manipulated far below "fair value", buy BTC, if it is manipulated far above "fair value" sell BTC.  The End.  Simple.

(disclaimer: being a somewhat degenerate speculator, I won't follow this advice though.  Also because I think the amount of manipulation is probably not that high.)

Is this something you just found out?  The market hasn't been anything other than unpredictable and manipulated since its existance. As traders I can't complain at all. There is plenty of room for profit throughout the years with Bitcoin.

SSS+buyback on dips. Doesn't matter which way the market goes with that strategy.

If your in bitcoin market for long time then you should be knowing that these bitcoins are not backed by any big institutions or governments. So it is easily manipulated by any big players so you should take the opportunity to sell when prices are high and if you had made some decent profits. If you target for very high price then you should go through all these fluctuations. Definitely the recent up move was to trap new people into bitcoin.

Ugh, you started trading again ?

This is also known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

An unpredictable market would make it more realistic not less.  If everyone knows whats going to happen thats when the dynamic is probably false.    Seems any normal market is one guy trying to get one over someone else for a profit, thats plain simple capitalism and yet a useful price is found for all market participants and its still more positive then fixed or controlled prices like a government system creates

So long as most news is kept open and known to all then its fine, if theres any false accounting or giant reserves of bitcoins somewhere (or hidden buying as China has used with T-bills and gold) then we're in trouble

The reason why price went back down is because there is huge resistance and supply at the $350 area and today there aren't many market participants because its the weekend.

One whale alone can't move the market past $500. Don't trade on weekends with no liquidity.