Needless to say, this made me hot.
(looking at your profile picture)... Do you have a rather small head or is that not a cigarette?
Topic: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that. - page 5. (Read 41589 times)
(looking at your profile picture)... Do you have a rather small head or is that not a cigarette?
'trade' isn't the right measure. if you're looking for fundamental value, it's how much value has been left in the system (used to acquire bitcoins and not 'withdrawn' for something else). the value of a bitcoin on that model comes from its claim against that systemic stored value, in the steady state.
you can never get more for your bitcoins than someone is willing to pay you for them. if every time someone buys a bitcoin with a dollar, someone else immediately cashes it out for a dollar, there is no net change in fundamental demand.
of course, prices in practice don't merely reflect 'fundamental' value because people try to estimate what such value will be in the future, leading to a 'beauty-contest game' or, at best, a rational prediction market in future value.
market capitalization, gross product, and so on are all very misleading in this context, except as very rough indicators of use.
you can never get more for your bitcoins than someone is willing to pay you for them. if every time someone buys a bitcoin with a dollar, someone else immediately cashes it out for a dollar, there is no net change in fundamental demand.
of course, prices in practice don't merely reflect 'fundamental' value because people try to estimate what such value will be in the future, leading to a 'beauty-contest game' or, at best, a rational prediction market in future value.
market capitalization, gross product, and so on are all very misleading in this context, except as very rough indicators of use.
I think it is more useful to imagine bitcoin as an internet success, not a world revolution. If bitcoin were as successful as a facebook, or a twitter, widespread, ubiquitous, with apps on smart-phones and bitcoin addresses shown on billboards and so on. 21 billion dollars in bitcoin trade would make the 1000 dollar bitcoin about right I would say. I'm not sure how a 21 billion dollar bitcoin economy compares to something like facebook advertising and data-mining revenues annually. Perhas it would be necessary to talk in terms of estimated bitcoin GDP.
please just be careful.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.
Wow almost as bad as my local garden center
please just be careful.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
I'm probably going to buy some of that, LinkedIn has been HIGHLY useful to me, I think they have a good thing going and some excellent data scientists, best in the field. However, I'm going to wait for the post-IPO shakeout first.
That said, the calculation of (world economy)/(# of bitcoins) is of course ludicrous, though it does give a reasonably certain absolute upper bound.
I just did it for fun. 
please just be careful.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
DYODD
please just be careful.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
BTW, I'm selling tulips. BTC 30 each.
please just be careful.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
linkedin had an ipo today. if i say 'if everyone on the planet got all their future jobs through linkedin, it would be worth $70,000 a share', that shouldn't make you want to buy it even slightly more.
anything can skyrocket. you still have to decide among all those possibilities where to put your money. a bitcoin in the current block chain isn't the first thing that has experienced exponential early price growth. as they say in america under the regulatory safe harbor, 'past performance does not predict future results'.
A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth? The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000. Needless to say, this made me hot.
Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.
Ouch. I'm at least off by an order of magnitude, probably closer to two. $50k x 21m = $1 trillion, plus change. US GDP is something like 12x that, so I'm way off in terms of calculating the money supply. http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article5460.html gives $60 trillion for M3 in 2008, so assuming that M3 is the right number to look at then the per BTC value should be something more like $2.86M/BTC, a lot closer to your figure. And if Bitcoin replaced all M3 currency today, BTC 1 =~ $9.53 million.
Buy and hold, people. Go long
A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.
A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
Is that like a "hot under the collar" kind of hot or the other kind of "hot" ... ?
"Hot" as in "ZOMG! Filthy lucre!"
A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
Is that like a "hot under the collar" kind of hot or the other kind of "hot" ... ?
A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth?
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000.
Needless to say, this made me hot.
(It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)
The "maximum transaction amounts" are simply limits of bid orders, correct?
You know, I'm not sure. Is there a place one can go to find out all the fine print about Mt. Gox?
Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.
what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds
Diamonds are not really so rare, the supply of them however has been remarkably well controlled.
Currency backed by gold, not an illusion.
what can you do with gold that you cannot do with bitcoins?
it has value because is rare, period
can be used in manufacturing of some electronic components, but it is not only option... ~90% (?) of its value come from limited supply not from any kind of actual usefulness
same with diamonds
(It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)
The "maximum transaction amounts" are simply limits of bid orders, correct? And the bid orders is hypothetically unlimited if price is variable (ie- I'd offer to buy an infinite number of bitcoins for $0.00 each). So people can always "cash out" back into dollars, but the question is "at what price" and this dynamic is true of any currency. The larger the Bitcoin community grows, the more stable the bid price will become over time and the easier it will be to "cash out" at a given price.
If BitCoins really do become as valuable as the title suggests, what is the quickest way for US residents to convert coins into cash in their bank accounts? (It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)
I have no idea. I have no intention of converting my coins to cash. I just spend them.
If BitCoins really do become as valuable as the title suggests, what is the quickest way for US residents to convert coins into cash in their bank accounts? (It appears there are some maximum transaction amounts on Mt. Gox.)
There is nothing special about gold. The only reason it has lasted as a money for 5,000 years is because there was no superior alternative for certain financial needs.
False. There is something special about gold. No other commodity possesses its particular blend of characteristics - and these characteristics make it desirable as a money, thus it is used as such. Lumber and coal do not possess the same benefits as gold, and thus they are not used as money. Same with stuffed animals, buckets of water, and raw iron. Gold is unique in its properties, and its use as money is derived precisely from these properties.
That doesn't mean it's the ONLY good money, or that it will ALWAYS be preferred as money, of course.
And indeed a few of us on this forum believe Bitcoin possesses special characteristics which make it a superior money even to gold! =)
I wrote a piece about this if anyone wants elaboration - understanding money is very important for anyone who wants to encourage the growth of Bitcoin. http://bit.ly/dk0VzY
actually, you and forever-d are in agreement. and i agree as well. and nicely written article btw.
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