The 2020 Bitcoin Halving: See what'll Definitely Happen.

Wenbing

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 04, 2020, 11:00:33 PM

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it is not possible to answer at all because you are asking me to predict what is going to happen in a century from now. it is already hard to know what the future in 5 years is going to be like let alone 100. with that said the design of bitcoin is based on the assumption that when block reward becomes so small the total transaction fees that a miner receives should cover their cost of mining in the future.

Projections and analysing the future look unreliable or unreal. We can see how many companies and government made some plan this year but no one knows if there will be a disruption of such plan by coronavirus pandemic.

That's why Lord Maynard Keynes said" in the longrun we are all dead" so our analysis should be in the short run because we are still alive.

That's very valid

stompix

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 04, 2020, 01:12:09 AM

you don't have to worry about miners' revenue. when miners were getting paid twice the current amount of bitcoin for their work (ie. 25BTC) they were earning $6,250 per block but now with half that amount of bitcoin (ie. 12.5BTC) they are earning $108,000. even if we had 4 halvings tomorrow they are still earning more money than 4 years ago.

You're treating a serious issue quite lightly
Yeah, the miners were earning only that much, but do you want the network to be back at 1PH at a time when with just 50mils$ worth of gear you can launch a 51% attack at that hashrate?
Miners were paid back in 2009 half a gram of pizza per block, would you entrust your money to a chain that can be attacked by a 1080ti?

At the time you mentioned their expenses with power consumption had to cover (assuming best gear available) 33kwhx70k miners per day, right now if we assume the same gear it's 70kwhx1.5 mils, 40 times more.

This is what happened to shitcash and shitvision after the halving:

Both coins can be attacked right now with 51% with only 10k s19 miners.

Yes, you have to worry about the miner's revenue!
If they were making 10 cents with 6 cents expenses and 4 cents in profit now they will make -1 cents in profit and shut down.
And with every mining gear shut down the security of the chain is going down and there is more gear that can be picked cheap just for..."fun".

yazher

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The most analyst has predicted the price will rise right after the halving is done but that's when we don't have this major crisis that we currently facing right now. I'm talking about the pandemic that making things worse for most of the industries that currently affected. if it's not for this problem, the speculations of the analyst could have became true and we will see the result right now. But times can tell what could really happen, let's just wait for the outcome of these trials.

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Quote from: The Cryptovator on May 04, 2020, 11:40:27 AM

To be honest most of us just over exited regarding bitcoin halving and highlighting only price trends. Seems to me no one curious about the main theme behind of halving. Lots of thread has been created about this halving occasion. However, whatever price we are experiencing that's not bad IMO. Because we all know the current situation about COVID-19. So price would be something reasonable above $10K (it's just my expectation, not prediction). Regarding miner benefits, there is chance increase little transaction fees since mining reward will be half from current reward after the halving. So they aren't going to loss much IMO.

I agree with you people are very excited to know the price of BTC Halving but the fact is no one has the exact answer for this, so called analyst are coming with unbelievable predictions and the threads people are creating is marginal. Most of them are wondering like BTC price will skyrocket again if this happens well and good, To be honest even I am not expecting a big change as we are in tough situation of COVID-19 my thought is the price might reach 9k - 11k..

pooya87

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Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 04:27:27 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on May 04, 2020, 01:12:09 AM

Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 12:57:39 AM

i broke down the numbers above, the miners would still be earning 10 times more money compared to last time reward halved.

I want to add to what I mean by that question.
You know the last block will be mined by 2140 the total number of BTC in circulation to be pegged at 21m.

That shows by then the reward for miners will be transaction fee. Will this be enough to cover the operational cost and to break even?

it is not possible to answer at all because you are asking me to predict what is going to happen in a century from now. it is already hard to know what the future in 5 years is going to be like let alone 100. with that said the design of bitcoin is based on the assumption that when block reward becomes so small the total transaction fees that a miner receives should cover their cost of mining in the future.

bearexin

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As for the number two, when the Bitcoin halving is done, yes it will reduce the reward that miners are getting after they finish mining Bitcoin. A lot of miners will be left with the options to either quit or continue with their mining and gaining nothing from it. The only way this can change is that if we can maintain the demand at a higher rate after this Halving, then the price will increase and miners will be able to benefit and keep their mining business.

If it's not like that, then the majority of the miners, especially the smaller ones, are probably going to quit from mining Bitcoin. As for the number, I hope that's going to be the case this time around. That's what a lot of us has been waiting for a long time now.

SkeletorHC

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Hello All,

Hope that you're fine and safe!

In the past halvings it seems that even the cut was made, the price in the beggining decrease for quite some time, and after few weeks, it started to increase to values that we know.

So it's a good time to sell?

Thanks

Best Regards
Hugo

ololajulo

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We are expected to be bullish after halving even with price dump. We have had the bottom in the market already we are just expecting the market to provide a way money will flow in the space, through startup and existing project or other new idea. I believe profit at 2-3x on every investment in short term in bitcoin value can waken the market. Consistency for just 3-6 months will remove the negative sentiment in the market and attract both old investors and new.

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The price won’t rise sharply immediately after the halving. It always seems to take a while, I suppose once the reduced supply of new coins takes effect.

SpanishSoldier

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Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 12:57:39 AM

1. The historical trend has shown that the two Halvings had corresponding rise in price of BTC.

So, will this 2020 Halving also bring about a surge in the price of BTC considering the coronavirus pandemic?

Historically, ATH happens one year after halving.

To be specific, 2013 ATH came 368 days after halving in 2012. 2017 ATH came 525 days after halving in 2016.

So, if the trend continues, next ATH will be in 2022.

Wenbing

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Quote from: BrewMaster on May 04, 2020, 11:22:45 AM

Quote from: Sanugarid on May 04, 2020, 08:49:00 AM

Quote

On top of that is the price of bitcoin, it is very high right now that I don't think it could go beyond the ceiling or making a new ATH.

Quote

how do you define "high" because that is a comparative thing. so what are you comparing bitcoin with when you claim its price is "high" and can not increase? keep in mind that you can't just choose an arbitrary number and say it is high because it is close to your arbitrary number.

You are correct when you say high is a comparative term. I guess he used the term "high" to actually compare the present price of bitcoin with when the price was low this year.

Casdinyard

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Quote from: BrewMaster on May 04, 2020, 11:22:45 AM

Quote from: Sanugarid on May 04, 2020, 08:49:00 AM

On top of that is the price of bitcoin, it is very high right now that I don't think it could go beyond the ceiling or making a new ATH.

how do you define "high" because that is a comparative thing. so what are you comparing bitcoin with when you claim its price is "high" and can not increase? keep in mind that you can't just choose an arbitrary number and say it is high because it is close to your arbitrary number.

Well I guess he said it is "high" because he mentioned the past 2 halving events. High in price compared to the past halving?

I know you're also skeptical about this year's halving coz almost everybody does. There are pretty much speculation that it will explode and the others says it won't. It is really hard to deliver words for the halving that will happen in less than 10 days, the uncertainty of it makes the market more interesting yet scary. And yes, we are not really sure that halving always impact the price of bitcoin positively, we cannot rely on that data having no basis.

The Cryptovator

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To be honest most of us just over exited regarding bitcoin halving and highlighting only price trends. Seems to me no one curious about the main theme behind of halving. Lots of thread has been created about this halving occasion. However, whatever price we are experiencing that's not bad IMO. Because we all know the current situation about COVID-19. So price would be something reasonable above $10K (it's just my expectation, not prediction). Regarding miner benefits, there is chance increase little transaction fees since mining reward will be half from current reward after the halving. So they aren't going to loss much IMO.

CarnagexD

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For this coming having we are looking forward to making a profitable market income if the bitcoin because from the previous year of 2016 is the recently last halving and also that year the market price and the bitcoin becomes more popular and again with a lot of adaptation and innovation regarding with the use of technology and make more faster transaction many people will encourage to make the join and to be included into the world of bitcoin just to make more profit and income which is good because they are now rapidly spreading the use and benefits of the use of cryptocurrency and the bitcoin. Still, it is too hard to predict what is the expected next market movement of the coins.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: Sanugarid on May 04, 2020, 08:49:00 AM

On top of that is the price of bitcoin, it is very high right now that I don't think it could go beyond the ceiling or making a new ATH.

how do you define "high" because that is a comparative thing. so what are you comparing bitcoin with when you claim its price is "high" and can not increase? keep in mind that you can't just choose an arbitrary number and say it is high because it is close to your arbitrary number.

Sanugarid

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We've seen the 2 halving making price changes significantly from the past. In my opinion, we already have set the market into different situation now that we might overlook the other factors like economic crisis and global pandemic which we did not have during the past halving.On top of that is the price of bitcoin, it is very high right now that I don't think it could go beyond the ceiling or making a new ATH. I'm still expecting a bull run before the halving occurs, if that's not going to happen then it's all done for bitcoin.

so98nn

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 04, 2020, 01:12:09 AM

Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 12:57:39 AM

Well, Halving automatically reduce the reward of miners by 50%. The question is what'll happen to their revenue since mining is a very capital intensive business?

you don't have to worry about miners' revenue. when miners were getting paid twice the current amount of bitcoin for their work (ie. 25BTC) they were earning $6,250 per block but now with half that amount of bitcoin (ie. 12.5BTC) they are earning $108,000. even if we had 4 halvings tomorrow they are still earning more money than 4 years ago.

Excellent analysis. It is so logical and making all the concepts clear now. Since halving the price has to go above automatically or may stay stagnant, whatever may be the case, miners revenue rises potential due to rise in demand.

I gotta say, whats the case with future? Let us assume all of it mined then how they will generate the revenue? Would it be the fees Or still some sort of reward. Surely there wont be any BTC to be generated anymore, how the tech will work in that period is the real question though. Now we get that halving is just process on our way to until final BTC generated. But, what then after?

jago25_98

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Actually read a news article that the Halving might not have cause the big previous bull run and might not have done it this time. Covered that in todays Analysis and News video https://youtu.be/dowwTpAd0-k

But looking at all world events: Money Printing, Trade Wars, Hyper inflation, COVID-19 and so on I expect a bull run coming. However it might drop first but I see the halving event as a possible contributor to a bull run of Bitcoin.

Wenbing

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 04, 2020, 01:12:09 AM

Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 12:57:39 AM

i broke down the numbers above, the miners would still be earning 10 times more money compared to last time reward halved.

I want to add to what I mean by that question.
You know the last block will be mined by 2140 the total number of BTC in circulation to be pegged at 21m.

That shows by then the reward for miners will be transaction fee. Will this be enough to cover the operational cost and to break even?

jseverson

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Quote from: 20kevin20 on May 04, 2020, 01:26:40 AM

There are some miners out there doing their job just as a hobby, simply to sustain the network. If a lot of miners leave the network, there is difficulty readjustment to come in and help them out.

As incredible as that is, Bitcoin has grown so large that hobbyists alone can't maintain enough network security.

Quote from: Wenbing on May 04, 2020, 12:57:39 AM

2. As the reward of miners is halved by 50% in every four years, by 2140 the last BTC will be mined.

So, miners will henceforth generate revenue from transaction fees but how will this be profitable to miners compared with their cost of operations?[/I]

This is really why an arbitrary increase in block size could be disastrous in the long run. A fee market must exist for the network to remain secure; look at what happened to LTC and BCH's hashrates after their halving. BTC doesn't have to worry about this problem as much because it's going to remain profitable to mine even after halvings.

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